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Yep, but broadly your last night experience is within the: - computer/internet - cellular phone items. There is a point about the difference between "concep

by jaclaz 4y ago

Yep, but broadly your last night experience is within the: - computer/internet - cellular phone items. There is a point about the difference between "concept" and "diffusion/availability", i.e., in the case of your video call it is not so much a "new concept" but rather the fact that you can access and afford this technology. Something like radio was conceptually revolutionary, to have something similar in importance we should get to see something like teleportation, even a fixed "origin" like in Star Trek, would do. Personally I would settle for being able to see (and use/be able to afford) completely self-driving cars, something you can call, that arrives and brings you to your destination.

cameronh90 4y ago
I don’t think smartphones should be considered the same thing as cell phones in the 80s. They are completely different devices with completely different function that just also have a cellular modem. I also suspect we’re going to see very significant changes as a result of AI.
- jaclaz 4y ago
  I don't think anyone made that comparison. Smartphones are computers, they use the cellular network to connect to the internet, besides strictly phoning, they remain conceptually inside: - computer/internet - cellular phone as an evolution of those broader technologies, what I find remarkable is their ubiquity/affordability. As an anecdotal data point, I got my first (personal) cellular phone well in the '90's, probably 1994 or 1995, in the (late) '80's cellular phones were mainly for business use, I remember buying for the company I worked with (and BTW for a particular case where the need to reach this particular person was essential) one of these: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x in 1988 or 1989 and paying it more than 4,500,000 Italian lire, the equivalent of roughly 2,000-2,500 Euro/Dollars of the time, considering inflation probably equivalent to 4,000-5,000 today and the subscription/calls were prohibitively expensive.
- ghaff 4y ago
  Even outside of the smartphone per se, I expect a lot of people don't really appreciate just how high friction it was to get information about anything including government services, information you might want to do your job, purchases, books, etc. etc.--especially outside of major cities with large libraries and research universities. (And even as an undergrad at one of those research universities it was hard to find current information on specialized topics.)
evgen 4y ago
I guess I can see that but I think the combinations in some of these are making something that is much more significant than the sum of its individual components. If we are looking for bullet list items that have been changed or advanced in the past three decades which are going to impact the future in ways we still do not comprehend then here is my list: - genomics/proteomics and bioinformatics - 'AI' and machine learning - automated driving and robotics - privatised spaceflight (60s spaceflight handbook with 21st century materials science and computing) - dissolution of the USSR and fracturing of many former Warsaw pact nations, European map looks closer to 1910 - rise of violent empowered individuals and terrorism (inspired by religion, nationalism, paranoia, and misanthropy) - social/sexual changes so profound and fast that they are driving violent reactionary response - the arc of AIDS from terrifying bogeyman to a serious but chronic condition as exemplar for the future of disease A lot has happened over the past 30 or so years and we also tend to look back at the past with an odd viewpoint, picking and choosing the old and new of that particular point in time. Yes, my grandmother went to school in a horse-drawn carriage but at the same time she could take that carriage to the train station and be halfway across the US by the following morning and upon her arrival at Grand Central Terminal the telegram from the station back home informing them of her arrival would take less than an hour to be hand-delivered. As Gibson noted, the future is here but is not evenly distributed and that also applied in the past.

by jaclaz 4y ago

cameronh90 4y ago

I don’t think smartphones should be considered the same thing as cell phones in the 80s. They are completely different devices with completely different function that just also have a cellular modem. I also suspect we’re going to see very significant changes as a result of AI.

jaclaz 4y ago
I don't think anyone made that comparison. Smartphones are computers, they use the cellular network to connect to the internet, besides strictly phoning, they remain conceptually inside: - computer/internet - cellular phone as an evolution of those broader technologies, what I find remarkable is their ubiquity/affordability. As an anecdotal data point, I got my first (personal) cellular phone well in the '90's, probably 1994 or 1995, in the (late) '80's cellular phones were mainly for business use, I remember buying for the company I worked with (and BTW for a particular case where the need to reach this particular person was essential) one of these: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x in 1988 or 1989 and paying it more than 4,500,000 Italian lire, the equivalent of roughly 2,000-2,500 Euro/Dollars of the time, considering inflation probably equivalent to 4,000-5,000 today and the subscription/calls were prohibitively expensive.
ghaff 4y ago
Even outside of the smartphone per se, I expect a lot of people don't really appreciate just how high friction it was to get information about anything including government services, information you might want to do your job, purchases, books, etc. etc.--especially outside of major cities with large libraries and research universities. (And even as an undergrad at one of those research universities it was hard to find current information on specialized topics.)

evgen 4y ago

I guess I can see that but I think the combinations in some of these are making something that is much more significant than the sum of its individual components. If we are looking for bullet list items that have been changed or advanced in the past three decades which are going to impact the future in ways we still do not comprehend then here is my list: - genomics/proteomics and bioinformatics - 'AI' and machine learning - automated driving and robotics - privatised spaceflight (60s spaceflight handbook with 21st century materials science and computing) - dissolution of the USSR and fracturing of many former Warsaw pact nations, European map looks closer to 1910 - rise of violent empowered individuals and terrorism (inspired by religion, nationalism, paranoia, and misanthropy) - social/sexual changes so profound and fast that they are driving violent reactionary response - the arc of AIDS from terrifying bogeyman to a serious but chronic condition as exemplar for the future of disease A lot has happened over the past 30 or so years and we also tend to look back at the past with an odd viewpoint, picking and choosing the old and new of that particular point in time. Yes, my grandmother went to school in a horse-drawn carriage but at the same time she could take that carriage to the train station and be halfway across the US by the following morning and upon her arrival at Grand Central Terminal the telegram from the station back home informing them of her arrival would take less than an hour to be hand-delivered. As Gibson noted, the future is here but is not evenly distributed and that also applied in the past.