5 ms·

My grandmother was an 1895-1995 stretch and experienced that same remarkable sweep of technology. The other item that most people forget about are some of the r

by evgen 4y ago

My grandmother was an 1895-1995 stretch and experienced that same remarkable sweep of technology. The other item that most people forget about are some of the radical consequences of the democratisation of travel in that period and just prior. My great-grandparents came of age when most people lived and died within view of the place they were born and where travel to another city was a days journey at least, by the time their youngest daughter died she could travel halfway across the planet in the same time and do so rather inexpensively. I am sure there is some aphorism out there about how we do not recognise the big change while it is happening, but I think you are underselling just how much is changing around you. Advances in medicine, energy, transport, and computing over the past couple of decades have been rather amazing, and you are really underselling the past few years of mobile phones combined with internet advances. When I grew up the phone in the house (because landlines were all that existed) was owned by Ma Bell and was one of three types, rotary dial, no answering machines, and long-distance cost an arm and both legs. Last night I was walking my dog down a street in London while my watch updated me on turns for my new route while I was having a video call with my mother back in the US at a near-broadcast quality; 15 years ago that would have existed only in science fiction. It takes a bit of distance to see what really was 'new' and important.

o-o- 4y ago
I have to agree with jaclaz: The advances you mention are "refinements and betterings of existing rather than revolutionary". slightly better antibiotics and slightly better phones, but all in all not near the impact of its predecessors. There's a thread on this very topic that I've bookmarked as I think it's one of HN's best and most insightful discussions ever. It's top comment goes: "'Innovation' in the internet age, say the last 30 years has mostly been limited to enable hedonistic digital consumption with very little impact on how we fundamentally move through the world. The difference between a car right now and a car 30 years ago is that you can now play angry birds on a tablet. A 100 years ago to 50 years ago meant going from horse carriages to trains and from weeks on a ship to hours on a plane. Today the average person crosses the Atlantic no faster than we did decades ago." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31494671 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31494671
- jaclaz 4y ago
  And - as a side note - my grandfather (born 1885 and dead prematurely in 1936) was originally from a village that in the 1930's was reachable from my city by public transport (train) in around 6-7 hours. When I was a kid (think of the 60's and 70's) we went there in the summer, and it took us ... the same 6-7 hours, if we used the car it took something less than 3 hours. Nowadays, that is respectively almost 100 years or 50 years later, guess how much it takes? I just checked, 6:15 by train, 2:30 by car. I do know that it is probably an edge case, but one has to think how advancements in technology are actually applied to real world cases.
jaclaz 4y ago
Yep, but broadly your last night experience is within the: - computer/internet - cellular phone items. There is a point about the difference between "concept" and "diffusion/availability", i.e., in the case of your video call it is not so much a "new concept" but rather the fact that you can access and afford this technology. Something like radio was conceptually revolutionary, to have something similar in importance we should get to see something like teleportation, even a fixed "origin" like in Star Trek, would do. Personally I would settle for being able to see (and use/be able to afford) completely self-driving cars, something you can call, that arrives and brings you to your destination.
- cameronh90 4y ago
  I don’t think smartphones should be considered the same thing as cell phones in the 80s. They are completely different devices with completely different function that just also have a cellular modem. I also suspect we’re going to see very significant changes as a result of AI.
  - jaclaz 4y ago
    I don't think anyone made that comparison. Smartphones are computers, they use the cellular network to connect to the internet, besides strictly phoning, they remain conceptually inside: - computer/internet - cellular phone as an evolution of those broader technologies, what I find remarkable is their ubiquity/affordability. As an anecdotal data point, I got my first (personal) cellular phone well in the '90's, probably 1994 or 1995, in the (late) '80's cellular phones were mainly for business use, I remember buying for the company I worked with (and BTW for a particular case where the need to reach this particular person was essential) one of these: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x in 1988 or 1989 and paying it more than 4,500,000 Italian lire, the equivalent of roughly 2,000-2,500 Euro/Dollars of the time, considering inflation probably equivalent to 4,000-5,000 today and the subscription/calls were prohibitively expensive.
  - ghaff 4y ago
    Even outside of the smartphone per se, I expect a lot of people don't really appreciate just how high friction it was to get information about anything including government services, information you might want to do your job, purchases, books, etc. etc.--especially outside of major cities with large libraries and research universities. (And even as an undergrad at one of those research universities it was hard to find current information on specialized topics.)

by evgen 4y ago

o-o- 4y ago

I have to agree with jaclaz: The advances you mention are "refinements and betterings of existing rather than revolutionary". slightly better antibiotics and slightly better phones, but all in all not near the impact of its predecessors. There's a thread on this very topic that I've bookmarked as I think it's one of HN's best and most insightful discussions ever. It's top comment goes: "'Innovation' in the internet age, say the last 30 years has mostly been limited to enable hedonistic digital consumption with very little impact on how we fundamentally move through the world. The difference between a car right now and a car 30 years ago is that you can now play angry birds on a tablet. A 100 years ago to 50 years ago meant going from horse carriages to trains and from weeks on a ship to hours on a plane. Today the average person crosses the Atlantic no faster than we did decades ago." https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31494671 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31494671

jaclaz 4y ago
And - as a side note - my grandfather (born 1885 and dead prematurely in 1936) was originally from a village that in the 1930's was reachable from my city by public transport (train) in around 6-7 hours. When I was a kid (think of the 60's and 70's) we went there in the summer, and it took us ... the same 6-7 hours, if we used the car it took something less than 3 hours. Nowadays, that is respectively almost 100 years or 50 years later, guess how much it takes? I just checked, 6:15 by train, 2:30 by car. I do know that it is probably an edge case, but one has to think how advancements in technology are actually applied to real world cases.

jaclaz 4y ago

Yep, but broadly your last night experience is within the: - computer/internet - cellular phone items. There is a point about the difference between "concept" and "diffusion/availability", i.e., in the case of your video call it is not so much a "new concept" but rather the fact that you can access and afford this technology. Something like radio was conceptually revolutionary, to have something similar in importance we should get to see something like teleportation, even a fixed "origin" like in Star Trek, would do. Personally I would settle for being able to see (and use/be able to afford) completely self-driving cars, something you can call, that arrives and brings you to your destination.

cameronh90 4y ago
I don’t think smartphones should be considered the same thing as cell phones in the 80s. They are completely different devices with completely different function that just also have a cellular modem. I also suspect we’re going to see very significant changes as a result of AI.
- jaclaz 4y ago
  I don't think anyone made that comparison. Smartphones are computers, they use the cellular network to connect to the internet, besides strictly phoning, they remain conceptually inside: - computer/internet - cellular phone as an evolution of those broader technologies, what I find remarkable is their ubiquity/affordability. As an anecdotal data point, I got my first (personal) cellular phone well in the '90's, probably 1994 or 1995, in the (late) '80's cellular phones were mainly for business use, I remember buying for the company I worked with (and BTW for a particular case where the need to reach this particular person was essential) one of these: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/4500x in 1988 or 1989 and paying it more than 4,500,000 Italian lire, the equivalent of roughly 2,000-2,500 Euro/Dollars of the time, considering inflation probably equivalent to 4,000-5,000 today and the subscription/calls were prohibitively expensive.
- ghaff 4y ago
  Even outside of the smartphone per se, I expect a lot of people don't really appreciate just how high friction it was to get information about anything including government services, information you might want to do your job, purchases, books, etc. etc.--especially outside of major cities with large libraries and research universities. (And even as an undergrad at one of those research universities it was hard to find current information on specialized topics.)