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While interesting, this does not seem very convincing to me. They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfec

While interesting, this does not seem very convincing to me. They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfect" moves, but they do not do enough to show that this is inconsistent with what top players usually do. A whole distribution of scores is shown for Niemann but only limited summary statistics are shown for other top players. A proper comparison would involve showing the same type of data for both.

usgroup 4y ago
Well she shows 6+ games where he has 100% correlation with the engine. What are the chances?
- boole1854 4y ago
  Yes, that's the question that I wish she had tried to answer. What are the chances? Without checking for that pattern by other 2600+ GMs, we don't know the answer.
  - goatlover 4y ago
    Hikaru, who ranges from high 2700s to 2800s, said only one of his games is at 100%, which was his best game. Hans having multiple 100% is suspicious.
- aqme28 4y ago
  > What are the chances? We don't know! That's why this is an incomplete analysis. A comparison against other players of his caliber would answer that question.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - usgroup 4y ago
    Hikaru tried to answer just that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc
- johncessna 4y ago
  And then explains the odds, to both this one and the parent's question
- 8note 4y ago
  How long was the engine run for those cases? Does the engine output change if you double or halve the depth? 100% correlation to an output that can be tuned doesn't seem that exciting
VanillaCafe 4y ago
> They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfect" moves, but they do not do enough to show that this is inconsistent with what top players usually do. I thought the video very much did make that case. A single known cheating game had a 98% correlation (Sebastien Feller Paris 2010), other GMs have generally at most 75% average correlation. The analysis had more than half a dozen games with Niemann at 100% correlation. If that's cherry picking, it seems like there are a lot of cherries to pick.
- roflyear 4y ago
  Yah and Hikaru was able to find games of his that were 100% too, fairly quickly: https://clips.twitch.tv/FaintCuteKumquatPhilosoraptor-hDvbAjBw2xTJu_q5 https://clips.twitch.tv/FaintCuteKumquatPhilosoraptor-hDvbAj...
__s 4y ago
https://imgur.com/a/JpJsMyI https://imgur.com/a/JpJsMyI
- glumreaper 4y ago
  OMG look at the Y axis scale of the graphs. Everyone else is 0-1000+ (often 0-2000), Magnus Carlsen's graph scale is 0-200.
  - __s 4y ago
    Yeah, because Carlsen's is only a sample of 426 games The first 4 are the most interesting, having same sample size of 4000. But across the board players tend to have little distinction between choosing moves between 0.0 & 0.1, except one player

usgroup 4y ago

Well she shows 6+ games where he has 100% correlation with the engine. What are the chances?

boole1854 4y ago
Yes, that's the question that I wish she had tried to answer. What are the chances? Without checking for that pattern by other 2600+ GMs, we don't know the answer.
- goatlover 4y ago
  Hikaru, who ranges from high 2700s to 2800s, said only one of his games is at 100%, which was his best game. Hans having multiple 100% is suspicious.
aqme28 4y ago
> What are the chances? We don't know! That's why this is an incomplete analysis. A comparison against other players of his caliber would answer that question.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- usgroup 4y ago
  Hikaru tried to answer just that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjtbXxA8Fcc
johncessna 4y ago
And then explains the odds, to both this one and the parent's question
8note 4y ago
How long was the engine run for those cases? Does the engine output change if you double or halve the depth? 100% correlation to an output that can be tuned doesn't seem that exciting

VanillaCafe 4y ago

> They successfully show that Niemann was playing many games with a high percentage of "engine perfect" moves, but they do not do enough to show that this is inconsistent with what top players usually do. I thought the video very much did make that case. A single known cheating game had a 98% correlation (Sebastien Feller Paris 2010), other GMs have generally at most 75% average correlation. The analysis had more than half a dozen games with Niemann at 100% correlation. If that's cherry picking, it seems like there are a lot of cherries to pick.

roflyear 4y ago
Yah and Hikaru was able to find games of his that were 100% too, fairly quickly: https://clips.twitch.tv/FaintCuteKumquatPhilosoraptor-hDvbAjBw2xTJu_q5 https://clips.twitch.tv/FaintCuteKumquatPhilosoraptor-hDvbAj...

__s 4y ago

https://imgur.com/a/JpJsMyI https://imgur.com/a/JpJsMyI

glumreaper 4y ago
OMG look at the Y axis scale of the graphs. Everyone else is 0-1000+ (often 0-2000), Magnus Carlsen's graph scale is 0-200.
- __s 4y ago
  Yeah, because Carlsen's is only a sample of 426 games The first 4 are the most interesting, having same sample size of 4000. But across the board players tend to have little distinction between choosing moves between 0.0 & 0.1, except one player