5 ms·
I'd love to see an ELI5 summary of what this is predicting globally for the upcoming season. It's interesting, but hard for me not being trained in this domain
by yosito 4y ago
I'd love to see an ELI5 summary of what this is predicting globally for the upcoming season. It's interesting, but hard for me not being trained in this domain to really understand how to interpret such detailed information.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Helmut10001 4y agoDue to a weakening of the polar weather system, there's a higher than usual chance of colder 'outbreaks' towards the US and Europe this winter.
- leke 4y agoWhat causes the polar weather system to weaken?
- schainks 4y agoOne thing that can cause it to weaken is extra snow over Siberia in the fall.
- Helmut10001 4y agoI think there are many different reasons, the bigger picture of course is climate change. More concretely, air is getting warmer at the North Pole (due to glacier/ice melt, open water reflecting less sun etc.), which reduces temperature gradients (those that fueled the Yet Stream that was responsible for the stable Polar Vortex). Grant scale of ocean water temperature change is another reason, and (more specifically) more chance for more snow in Siberia. The north pole weather system is connected to all other weather systems, so it is not easy to define a clear causal chain.
- kstenerud 4y agoWhen the polar vortex is strong, it maintains its cylindrical shape and keeps the cold air trapped within that cylinder at the pole (like those blowing air barriers on the doors to shops in the summer that blow air down and stop the cold air from escaping the store). When warmer air masses push into the polar region in the fall (which happens more often now due to global warming), it disrupts and weakens the polar vortex and leaves open channels for the cold air to escape during the winter. This cold air then cools parts of the Northern hemisphere, causing pockets of cold (generally to the South), while the warmer air also bunches up and causes pockets of warm (generally to the North). The end result is wild temperature and weather swings during Winter (colder in the Eastern USA and Europe - see the last two images in the article), and we're in for a doozy this year.
- michaelwww 4y agoSo this is how Texas froze over and lost power a couple of years ago (as I understand what you said)
- midoridensha 4y agoIt'll be pretty funny, in a grim way, if it happens again this year. Honestly, I don't expect Texans to have learned from that experience.
- loxias 4y agoIt's actually happened multiple times already, 1989, 2011, as well as 2021. After 2011 (during which there was rolling blackouts, boil-water advisories) an advisory board made recommendations for upgrading the infrastructure. The advice was of course ignored and Gov. Abbott later disbanded the division responsible for oversight -- can't have any pesky government regulations!
- michaelwww 4y agoI guess it depends on who wins in November
- antifa 4y agoPoor Texans with no political power will learning this lesson over and over again.
- midoridensha 4y agoThey have political power: they can vote. But they keep voting for the party that causes these problems, so I don't have any sympathy.
- sneak 4y agoI am curious which party in Texas has jurisdiction over the polar atmosphere.