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I expect as battery prices fall, car manufacturers will start offering free battery upgrades as an included service with the sticker price. Today people are act

I expect as battery prices fall, car manufacturers will start offering free battery upgrades as an included service with the sticker price. Today people are actively paying $40K for a new car. As batteries get cheaper, some manufacturers might race to the bottom and just try to offer cars for as cheap as possible, like imagine a 300 mile range Honda Civic for $10k. Others might still charge $40k but give you goodies like a fresh battery every five years.

Kirby64 4y ago
This will never happen. Car manufacturers today are moving away from one-time-fee models and trending towards subscription-based models (see all the hub-bub around the BMW heated seat subscription). If anything, it'd be the opposite: Pay some smaller up-front cost, but a monthly 'battery service' fee or something instead. Also, I highly doubt there will ever be a car in the $10k new segment (at least in the US); it just isn't feasible with the demands of consumers for other things (safety, regulations, infotainment, interiors, etc). Even if the battery cost approaches zero, there's more than $10k worth of car (not in BOM, but what it would sell for) in probably every car today.
- thehappypm 4y ago
  Sure, that’s a viable model as well! Either way I think the market and industry will find a way to make it work for the consumer such that they won’t feel like an EV is just a hidden $10k charge in 10 years.
  - Kirby64 4y ago
    Nobody worries about a hidden $10k cost for an engine replacement (which, after labor... is probably what it actually costs for many vehicles if you want a brand new engine) 10 years down the road either. I treat this as a similar thing. If you actually want to redo it, you buy a used battery with less miles on it for much less than a new battery. Just like an engine/transmission/etc. The only difference is you lose range as the car ages... although for a gas car, it probably gets less efficient with age too (but, this is much less noticeable thanks to refueling times)

Kirby64 4y ago

This will never happen. Car manufacturers today are moving away from one-time-fee models and trending towards subscription-based models (see all the hub-bub around the BMW heated seat subscription). If anything, it'd be the opposite: Pay some smaller up-front cost, but a monthly 'battery service' fee or something instead. Also, I highly doubt there will ever be a car in the $10k new segment (at least in the US); it just isn't feasible with the demands of consumers for other things (safety, regulations, infotainment, interiors, etc). Even if the battery cost approaches zero, there's more than $10k worth of car (not in BOM, but what it would sell for) in probably every car today.

thehappypm 4y ago
Sure, that’s a viable model as well! Either way I think the market and industry will find a way to make it work for the consumer such that they won’t feel like an EV is just a hidden $10k charge in 10 years.
- Kirby64 4y ago
  Nobody worries about a hidden $10k cost for an engine replacement (which, after labor... is probably what it actually costs for many vehicles if you want a brand new engine) 10 years down the road either. I treat this as a similar thing. If you actually want to redo it, you buy a used battery with less miles on it for much less than a new battery. Just like an engine/transmission/etc. The only difference is you lose range as the car ages... although for a gas car, it probably gets less efficient with age too (but, this is much less noticeable thanks to refueling times)