4 ms·

I presume you're referring to Brexit, but this seems to be mostly a strong US dollar and energy crisis story. Europe is in a similar situation so I'm not sure w

by bb123 4y ago

I presume you're referring to Brexit, but this seems to be mostly a strong US dollar and energy crisis story. Europe is in a similar situation so I'm not sure what difference staying/leaving would have made.

skywal_l 4y ago
Indeed EUR/USD is not doing great either: https://www.google.com/search?channel=fs&client=ubuntu&q=EUR%2FUSD https://www.google.com/search?channel=fs&client=ubuntu&q=EUR....
- Mordisquitos 4y ago
  That being the case, compare it with GBP/EUR over the same time period. The US Dollar is indeed doing well overall, but the Euro is doing nowhere as badly as the Pound Sterling is.
bamboozled 4y ago
See AUD and JPY also, hopeless. But I agree with the above sentiment anyway, same could be said for the Soviet Union and in many ways, Russia today.
chitowneats 4y ago
It's funny how Trump and Brexit have become these catch-all bogeymen that every societal ill is reflexively attributed to.
- mobiuscog 4y ago
  That's what happens when you have governments that only care about themselves and their friends, and not the people they are governing - even if not everything is their fault, experience tells people that they're likely to blame in some part as they've lied so much everywhere else.
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    Experience might cause people to believe that, but that doesn't mean it's true. It's just standard world-weariness against leaders.
- lm28469 4y ago
  If the government can't be blamed for results who can lol
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    The voters.
squidbeak 4y ago
I think the point is the UK entered the energy crisis in poor shape thanks to Brexit.
- nivenkos 4y ago
  The UK is in much better shape than Hungary, Poland, Germany and Italy...
  - LatteLazy 4y ago
    Despite paying a 25% premium on energy because of our falling currency vs the euro used in those countries? Despite relying on them being willing to sell us energy, as non-single-market countries have no guarantee of access?
    - ploppyploppy 4y ago
      The Euro is doing worse against the Dollar. WTF are you talking about?
      - LatteLazy 4y ago
        The pound is down against the euro. So no, it's not doing worse against the dollar unless you look at the absolute value which is pretty dumb...
LatteLazy 4y ago
Brexit is example number one but there are 101 other examples (including our approach to energy and our approach to "solving" the energy crisis). The USD is strong, but that's only half the story here. Just look at EUR vs GBP since Brexit: down 20%. We're doing 20% worse than Europe, an economy with the same issues around energy as ours, plus no real decisive government and which just finished dealing with a debt crisis and a migrant crisis.
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  > Just look at EUR vs GBP since Brexit: down 20%. We weren't on the Euro when we were in the EU.
  - LatteLazy 4y ago
    I didn't say we were did I? Sorry if I am being obtuse, I meant that a pound buys 20% fewer euros today than it did back then...
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      Oh! But then how do you know what it would be if we'd stayed in?
      - MattPalmer1086 4y ago
        You cannot know the effects of something that didn't happen. I guess if we had some kind of multiverse-hopping machine we could do some experiments. If you're just saying that it is not possible to know for sure whether Brexit is the cause of the 20% decline, well, you're right. Seems like a reasonable hypothesis though.
        robertlagrant 4y ago
        Maybe not. But it's not been a 20% decline; the graph's been all over the place. In April 2022 the pound was higher against the Euro than it was when Brexit happened[1]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=gbp+to+euro https://www.google.com/search?q=gbp+to+euro (and set it to 5 years)
matthewmacleod 4y ago
Brexit is a good example of that sort of policy, but it's far from the only one. Even in that case, it's not the decision itself that's the issue but the cavalier implementation of it – stuff like introducing lots of red tape for exports, hand-waving away the idea that exports will be affected, and then being shocked when exports collapse. In this specific case it's not really a "strong dollar/energy crisis" story – the proximate cause is a massive overnight shift in UK government fiscal policy to "let's cut taxes and not spending, and it will all work out" that's obviously spooked everyone.
snowwrestler 4y ago
Cracks me up that the argument now is “we’re in the same boat as Europe” when the argument for Brexit was that the EU was an anchor holding back Great Britain’s unique potential for greatness.
- bb123 4y ago
  I'm not sure why you jumped to the conclusion that my observation was pro-Brexit. There's literally nothing in what I said that suggests that. I was only pointing out that it seems like its mostly factors outside of Brexit that have lead to this situation.
  - fmajid 4y ago
    Of course, all the problems mendaciously blamed on the EU to justify Brexit were always really problems with UK governance in the first place, and Brexit was not going to make a difference.

by bb123 4y ago

skywal_l 4y ago

Indeed EUR/USD is not doing great either: https://www.google.com/search?channel=fs&client=ubuntu&q=EUR%2FUSD https://www.google.com/search?channel=fs&client=ubuntu&q=EUR....

Mordisquitos 4y ago
That being the case, compare it with GBP/EUR over the same time period. The US Dollar is indeed doing well overall, but the Euro is doing nowhere as badly as the Pound Sterling is.

bamboozled 4y ago

See AUD and JPY also, hopeless. But I agree with the above sentiment anyway, same could be said for the Soviet Union and in many ways, Russia today.

chitowneats 4y ago

It's funny how Trump and Brexit have become these catch-all bogeymen that every societal ill is reflexively attributed to.

mobiuscog 4y ago
That's what happens when you have governments that only care about themselves and their friends, and not the people they are governing - even if not everything is their fault, experience tells people that they're likely to blame in some part as they've lied so much everywhere else.
- robertlagrant 4y ago
  Experience might cause people to believe that, but that doesn't mean it's true. It's just standard world-weariness against leaders.
lm28469 4y ago
If the government can't be blamed for results who can lol
- chitowneats 4y ago
  The voters.

squidbeak 4y ago

I think the point is the UK entered the energy crisis in poor shape thanks to Brexit.

nivenkos 4y ago
The UK is in much better shape than Hungary, Poland, Germany and Italy...
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  Despite paying a 25% premium on energy because of our falling currency vs the euro used in those countries? Despite relying on them being willing to sell us energy, as non-single-market countries have no guarantee of access?
  - ploppyploppy 4y ago
    The Euro is doing worse against the Dollar. WTF are you talking about?
    - LatteLazy 4y ago
      The pound is down against the euro. So no, it's not doing worse against the dollar unless you look at the absolute value which is pretty dumb...

LatteLazy 4y ago

Brexit is example number one but there are 101 other examples (including our approach to energy and our approach to "solving" the energy crisis). The USD is strong, but that's only half the story here. Just look at EUR vs GBP since Brexit: down 20%. We're doing 20% worse than Europe, an economy with the same issues around energy as ours, plus no real decisive government and which just finished dealing with a debt crisis and a migrant crisis.

robertlagrant 4y ago
> Just look at EUR vs GBP since Brexit: down 20%. We weren't on the Euro when we were in the EU.
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  I didn't say we were did I? Sorry if I am being obtuse, I meant that a pound buys 20% fewer euros today than it did back then...
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    Oh! But then how do you know what it would be if we'd stayed in?
    - MattPalmer1086 4y ago
      You cannot know the effects of something that didn't happen. I guess if we had some kind of multiverse-hopping machine we could do some experiments. If you're just saying that it is not possible to know for sure whether Brexit is the cause of the 20% decline, well, you're right. Seems like a reasonable hypothesis though.
      - robertlagrant 4y ago
        Maybe not. But it's not been a 20% decline; the graph's been all over the place. In April 2022 the pound was higher against the Euro than it was when Brexit happened[1]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=gbp+to+euro https://www.google.com/search?q=gbp+to+euro (and set it to 5 years)

matthewmacleod 4y ago

Brexit is a good example of that sort of policy, but it's far from the only one. Even in that case, it's not the decision itself that's the issue but the cavalier implementation of it – stuff like introducing lots of red tape for exports, hand-waving away the idea that exports will be affected, and then being shocked when exports collapse. In this specific case it's not really a "strong dollar/energy crisis" story – the proximate cause is a massive overnight shift in UK government fiscal policy to "let's cut taxes and not spending, and it will all work out" that's obviously spooked everyone.

snowwrestler 4y ago

Cracks me up that the argument now is “we’re in the same boat as Europe” when the argument for Brexit was that the EU was an anchor holding back Great Britain’s unique potential for greatness.

bb123 4y ago
I'm not sure why you jumped to the conclusion that my observation was pro-Brexit. There's literally nothing in what I said that suggests that. I was only pointing out that it seems like its mostly factors outside of Brexit that have lead to this situation.
- fmajid 4y ago
  Of course, all the problems mendaciously blamed on the EU to justify Brexit were always really problems with UK governance in the first place, and Brexit was not going to make a difference.