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It always amazing how Americans think presidents have much of an impact on things like economics and housing markets. It the same mistake people make everywher

It always amazing how Americans think presidents have much of an impact on things like economics and housing markets. It the same mistake people make everywhere, correlation is not causation. The Great Depression was not Hoovers fault. Hitler was not some amazing economic genius its just that he got to power after the worst of the recession was over. Trump certainty did some thing bad things in terms of trade, but that likely doesn't explain most of the numbers. > Obama had international inspectors in Iran’s nuke plants, Trump pulled the US out and now the situation is far worse with respect to th nuke profliferation issue. That actually is something the president has much influence on.

_8j50 4y ago
They have some influence. The fed chief is nominated by them. Laws they support get priority. Their policies can have effects on consumer confidence and economic activity, I mean americans belive the president is powerful so true or not their economic behavior is affected, and that isn't just consumers but investors as well. Let's say biden threatened nuke war against russia, that will crash stocks or mention tariffs on China which will affect some stocks more than others. CEOs also use what they say as an excuse to do things.
cromwellian 4y ago
I didn't say Obama was the cause of these things, merely that they happened on his term. This is in response to Trump fans who like to trash Obama and celebrate Trump. My point is, if you want to blame Obama for the bad economics that happens on his term, you also have to credit him for the good things, and likewise for Trump. I have long said that Presidents don't have much effect on the economy, unless they trigger some major mal-investment or war (or a trade war). It's the Republicans who OBSESS about tinkering with marginal tax rates, as if cutting a rich guy's taxes from 39% marginal rate to 36% marginal rate transforms the economy. As Warren Buffet said, no real entrepreneur is scared away by marginal taxes, it's a nice problem to have if you manage to make it to that tier. But again, if you're going to play the President comparison game by crediting them for trends that happen when they take office, you have to apply it consistently, regardless of political party. (I will say that Presidents CAN have a major effect if they radically change the rules of the game suddenly, like Smoot-Hawley, or the creation Bretton-Woods/collapse of Bretton-Woods) Also, it's not just "Americans" who think political leaders control the economy, you see this in the UK, and you see it playing out in Italy right now. People overall ignore trends and forces that take a decade to unfold, from housing prices to regional sector collapses, by the time the political system realizes it, the actual change has already happened, and there's often political response that promises to "restore" what's already gone.

_8j50 4y ago

They have some influence. The fed chief is nominated by them. Laws they support get priority. Their policies can have effects on consumer confidence and economic activity, I mean americans belive the president is powerful so true or not their economic behavior is affected, and that isn't just consumers but investors as well. Let's say biden threatened nuke war against russia, that will crash stocks or mention tariffs on China which will affect some stocks more than others. CEOs also use what they say as an excuse to do things.

cromwellian 4y ago

I didn't say Obama was the cause of these things, merely that they happened on his term. This is in response to Trump fans who like to trash Obama and celebrate Trump. My point is, if you want to blame Obama for the bad economics that happens on his term, you also have to credit him for the good things, and likewise for Trump. I have long said that Presidents don't have much effect on the economy, unless they trigger some major mal-investment or war (or a trade war). It's the Republicans who OBSESS about tinkering with marginal tax rates, as if cutting a rich guy's taxes from 39% marginal rate to 36% marginal rate transforms the economy. As Warren Buffet said, no real entrepreneur is scared away by marginal taxes, it's a nice problem to have if you manage to make it to that tier. But again, if you're going to play the President comparison game by crediting them for trends that happen when they take office, you have to apply it consistently, regardless of political party. (I will say that Presidents CAN have a major effect if they radically change the rules of the game suddenly, like Smoot-Hawley, or the creation Bretton-Woods/collapse of Bretton-Woods) Also, it's not just "Americans" who think political leaders control the economy, you see this in the UK, and you see it playing out in Italy right now. People overall ignore trends and forces that take a decade to unfold, from housing prices to regional sector collapses, by the time the political system realizes it, the actual change has already happened, and there's often political response that promises to "restore" what's already gone.