4 ms·

I suspect anywhere there's substantial tourism/airbnb activity the prices have taken a bubble-like trajectory. And I don't see that abating, travel is only inc

I suspect anywhere there's substantial tourism/airbnb activity the prices have taken a bubble-like trajectory. And I don't see that abating, travel is only increasing. It'd require something like regulations reeling in the whole short-term rental business, or something else killing tourism. So I'm inclined to ignore these numbers for anywhere having significant tourism.

bombcar 4y ago
Recessions can hamper tourism and once they have difficulty covering the mortgage, things will snap wildly.
- abdabab 4y ago
  When most people are sitting on 2%-3% mortgage APR, it possibly won’t happen.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Yeah, companies can run for a long time with low income, and individuals really hate selling at a loss, even if they end up dumping tons of “good money after bad”. I could see people just holding and waiting (which is what I think is going to be the main thing happening).
nine_zeros 4y ago
With expensive flight tickets and declining non-US-dollar currencies, tourism is bound to decline again.
junofan 4y ago
> It'd require something like regulations reeling in the whole short-term rental business, or something else killing tourism. Why does solving this problem require killing or reeling things in? Why not make it easier to build cool hotels? I went to some city council meeting where building a hotel was discussed, and it all seemed very difficult to get a return on new construction at a reasonable price.
anm89 4y ago
I think this is not only wrong but exactly backwards. Airbnb was sucking supply out of the market because it made sense with cheap capital. It was essentially a capital capicator in real estate form. Well now we head into a recession, airbnb demand falls, there is no cheap refi option, potentially concurrently with layoffs, so some people are going to be forced to dump airbnb inventory into a market with zero demand which os going to start creating supply bubbles. I think these areas are most at risk in the bad recession scenario
missedthecue 4y ago
In my city, there are 514 homes that you can rent "all to yourself" on Airbnb, meaning the owners aren't leasing out a guestroom or basement while living there. The city has more than 367,0000 housing units. I find it extremely difficult to buy into the narrative that Airbnb is causing housing to become expensive.
- pengaru 4y ago
  A few years ago my friend in a rent control Santa Monica apartment had multiple absentee neighbors illegally putting their units on airbnb. So I find it extremely difficult to buy into your numbers being anywhere near accurate. My personal experience is in a low-density rural setting (near Joshua Tree National Park) where the park's tourism forms a substantial part of the local economy. But at least in my hood, which pre-airbnb was rife with dilapidated/abandoned ramshackle cabins and SFR homes low-income pensioners, artists, and tweakers would usually occupy, it's been completely transformative, displacing the locals and multiplying prices of anything with airbnb appeal. But it's a hot-spot for tourism thanks to the national park. There's enough tourists getting stuck in the wash near my property to reach remote airbnbs in rentals via satnav I could open a towing business. I don't think what I said applies to a run of the mill city where tourism contributes relatively little to the economy. You didn't mention anything in this vein about your city.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    Most people don't live in Joshua Tree National Park, and people complaining about the housing crisis aren't talking about housing in hot spot tourist areas. They're talking about housing in cities with jobs and careers available. Go to your nearest city and look up the number of units available on Airbnb and then google the total number of housing units in the city.

bombcar 4y ago

Recessions can hamper tourism and once they have difficulty covering the mortgage, things will snap wildly.

abdabab 4y ago
When most people are sitting on 2%-3% mortgage APR, it possibly won’t happen.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Yeah, companies can run for a long time with low income, and individuals really hate selling at a loss, even if they end up dumping tons of “good money after bad”. I could see people just holding and waiting (which is what I think is going to be the main thing happening).

nine_zeros 4y ago

With expensive flight tickets and declining non-US-dollar currencies, tourism is bound to decline again.

junofan 4y ago

> It'd require something like regulations reeling in the whole short-term rental business, or something else killing tourism. Why does solving this problem require killing or reeling things in? Why not make it easier to build cool hotels? I went to some city council meeting where building a hotel was discussed, and it all seemed very difficult to get a return on new construction at a reasonable price.

anm89 4y ago

I think this is not only wrong but exactly backwards. Airbnb was sucking supply out of the market because it made sense with cheap capital. It was essentially a capital capicator in real estate form. Well now we head into a recession, airbnb demand falls, there is no cheap refi option, potentially concurrently with layoffs, so some people are going to be forced to dump airbnb inventory into a market with zero demand which os going to start creating supply bubbles. I think these areas are most at risk in the bad recession scenario

missedthecue 4y ago

In my city, there are 514 homes that you can rent "all to yourself" on Airbnb, meaning the owners aren't leasing out a guestroom or basement while living there. The city has more than 367,0000 housing units. I find it extremely difficult to buy into the narrative that Airbnb is causing housing to become expensive.

pengaru 4y ago
A few years ago my friend in a rent control Santa Monica apartment had multiple absentee neighbors illegally putting their units on airbnb. So I find it extremely difficult to buy into your numbers being anywhere near accurate. My personal experience is in a low-density rural setting (near Joshua Tree National Park) where the park's tourism forms a substantial part of the local economy. But at least in my hood, which pre-airbnb was rife with dilapidated/abandoned ramshackle cabins and SFR homes low-income pensioners, artists, and tweakers would usually occupy, it's been completely transformative, displacing the locals and multiplying prices of anything with airbnb appeal. But it's a hot-spot for tourism thanks to the national park. There's enough tourists getting stuck in the wash near my property to reach remote airbnbs in rentals via satnav I could open a towing business. I don't think what I said applies to a run of the mill city where tourism contributes relatively little to the economy. You didn't mention anything in this vein about your city.
- missedthecue 4y ago
  Most people don't live in Joshua Tree National Park, and people complaining about the housing crisis aren't talking about housing in hot spot tourist areas. They're talking about housing in cities with jobs and careers available. Go to your nearest city and look up the number of units available on Airbnb and then google the total number of housing units in the city.