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If one assumes that all terminals are in use by paying customers @ 110[1] per month that gives 1.3 billion a year in income. Plus 0,5 billion usd for the hardwa

If one assumes that all terminals are in use by paying customers @ 110[1] per month that gives 1.3 billion a year in income. Plus 0,5 billion usd for the hardware. So far there have been 62 Starlink launches - assuming an average price of 67m usd[2] that gives a total launch cost of 4.15 billion(real launch cost is lower as SpaceX does it at cost. Life expectancy of the satellites are between 5 - 7 years so excluding R&D cost I'd say Starlink is already cashflow positive and will generate huge returns in the future. I'm sure there are some commercial / military contracts in the mix which alone will add a couple of B's to the income number. 1 & 2- https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-launches-and-starlink-due-to-inflation.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/spacex-raises-prices-for-lau...

frankjr 4y ago
Starlink's prices now take into consideration the buying power of each country. For example, it costs ~$55 in Czechia and ~$41 in Hungary.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Of course SpaceX would use differential pricing. Once the satellites are up there orbiting, they might as well be earning income for as much of each orbit as they can. Zero marginal cost to do so. So SpaceX's prices in each market will be low enough to be competitive in each market. The caveat to that is that they're still taking a large loss on each user terminal, so they have to make that back over the expected life of a contract.
hef19898 4y ago
You forgot on-going operations, maintenance and so on. Also, you assume all terminals are in use and paid for every month.
- Seanambers 4y ago
  Yeah, thats why I started with "If one assumes.." :) But good point, I did not consider overhead and operational costs in this.
parker_mountain 4y ago
Your numbers are a bit off, it's sort of safe to assume that maybe half of terminals are operational - not 100%. > some commercial / military contracts in the mix T-Mobile is a massive $$$ for them. I would assume the availability of worldwide, omnipresent, inexpensive low speed broadband is going to open new use-cases (and thus revenue streams), that we're not even aware of. It's going to be exciting.
- chiefalchemist 4y ago
  And speeds will creep up, as they did for phone / cable / fiber / cell.
- karaterobot 4y ago
  > Your numbers are a bit off, it's sort of safe to assume that maybe half of terminals are operational - not 100%. Wait, why is this? Do you mean that 50% have been produced and not yet sold, or 50% have been sold to people who aren't paying for service? I'd assume a much smaller percentage in either case.
  - parker_mountain 4y ago
    OP assumed 100%. I just think that if you're starting above 50%, you're already way off. The real number is actually way lower, probably.
    - viczsaszbo 4y ago
      They are at 700k subscribers according to an interview. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/09/12/internet-par-satellite-starlink-revendique-deja-700-000-clients-dont-6-500-en-france_6141297_3234.html https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/09/12/internet-...
      - parker_mountain 4y ago
        mon français nest pas bon. 700,000? je suis surpris! je veux un livre d'anglais, merci.
chippiewill 4y ago
I think the current estimate for the direct cost of reusing a Falcon 9 is at most $30m and potentially as low as $15m (there's a lot of fixed costs so getting a "true" price for this would be hard even if you had access to the same data SpaceX does).

frankjr 4y ago

Starlink's prices now take into consideration the buying power of each country. For example, it costs ~$55 in Czechia and ~$41 in Hungary.

tuatoru 4y ago
Of course SpaceX would use differential pricing. Once the satellites are up there orbiting, they might as well be earning income for as much of each orbit as they can. Zero marginal cost to do so. So SpaceX's prices in each market will be low enough to be competitive in each market. The caveat to that is that they're still taking a large loss on each user terminal, so they have to make that back over the expected life of a contract.

hef19898 4y ago

You forgot on-going operations, maintenance and so on. Also, you assume all terminals are in use and paid for every month.

Seanambers 4y ago
Yeah, thats why I started with "If one assumes.." :) But good point, I did not consider overhead and operational costs in this.

parker_mountain 4y ago

Your numbers are a bit off, it's sort of safe to assume that maybe half of terminals are operational - not 100%. > some commercial / military contracts in the mix T-Mobile is a massive $$$ for them. I would assume the availability of worldwide, omnipresent, inexpensive low speed broadband is going to open new use-cases (and thus revenue streams), that we're not even aware of. It's going to be exciting.

chiefalchemist 4y ago
And speeds will creep up, as they did for phone / cable / fiber / cell.
karaterobot 4y ago
> Your numbers are a bit off, it's sort of safe to assume that maybe half of terminals are operational - not 100%. Wait, why is this? Do you mean that 50% have been produced and not yet sold, or 50% have been sold to people who aren't paying for service? I'd assume a much smaller percentage in either case.
- parker_mountain 4y ago
  OP assumed 100%. I just think that if you're starting above 50%, you're already way off. The real number is actually way lower, probably.
  - viczsaszbo 4y ago
    They are at 700k subscribers according to an interview. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/09/12/internet-par-satellite-starlink-revendique-deja-700-000-clients-dont-6-500-en-france_6141297_3234.html https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/09/12/internet-...
    - parker_mountain 4y ago
      mon français nest pas bon. 700,000? je suis surpris! je veux un livre d'anglais, merci.

chippiewill 4y ago

I think the current estimate for the direct cost of reusing a Falcon 9 is at most $30m and potentially as low as $15m (there's a lot of fixed costs so getting a "true" price for this would be hard even if you had access to the same data SpaceX does).