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The goal of Fed monetary policy is to contain inflation back down to the 2% target rate. The knob they have to turn is raising interest rates. There's a lot o

The goal of Fed monetary policy is to contain inflation back down to the 2% target rate. The knob they have to turn is raising interest rates. There's a lot of steps in between that and inflation coming down. Inflation right now has a strong component of rising Labor costs because of low unemployment and workers having strong ability to bargain for higher salaries. To achieve low inflation in the current environment, there must be more "slack in the labor market" which comes about through higher unemployment and less ability for workers to bargain for their salaries. The mechanism that this happens through is by making bad investments that have been funded by loans taken out at very low short rates to fail via higher interest rates and for those effects to ripple through the economy, ultimately destroying jobs. The only problem with the title of the article is that it should have been written "The Fed's plans will sharply boost unemployment". They plan to lower inflation by rising interest rates, but unemployment has to rise for them to hit their targets. I also would bet that soon, as is typical in all recessions (and it never, ever true that "this time it is different") that there will be a financial collapse when the tide goes out and we see who has been swimming naked.

laylower 4y ago
Iamontocg, this would have been a sufficient explanation in a market with no interdependencies. Yet, the cause of the problem is not workers aiming for a living wage when the income inequality is at its all-time high. Inflation causes vary: 1) Covid business loans 2) Cost of logistics post covid 3) Corporate profits recently hit all time high 4) FX rate with EUR and GBP I agree that the vanilla solution seems to be the most effective - the knob as you called it. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be painless when credit expansion and overleveraged businesses and people are hit with the new higher rates.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  I don't know what made you think I suggested that this would be painless FX rates are also the result of twisting the knob, not the cause. And there's a lot of other factors in inflation, but the wage inflation is the one that has the Fed worried. The Fed knows everything else is cyclical and they weren't worried in the commodities boom and high oil prices in 2010-2014. The reason why they're so worried now is wage inflation. We haven't had wage inflation this high in 30 years and the Fed hasn't thrown on the brakes this hard since I can remember. This isn't the 25bp tightening every meeting of the Greenspan Fed.
  - thunky 4y ago
    But there is no wage inflation overall. In real terms, wages are declining except for maybe the lowest earners [0]. For some reason that's unacceptable. [0] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employment-do-not-have-to-decline-to-bring-down-inflation/ https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employmen...
    - lamontcg 4y ago
      > In real terms Nominally they are increasing, that is a component of inflation. Inflation-adjusting the nominal rise of prices that are causing inflation just hides the inflation. You can't analyze it that way. > For some reason that's unacceptable. I'm not the Fed, I don't support what they're doing, I'm just explaining it. EDIT: research from the Fed: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/september/wage-growth-when-inflation-is-high/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi... Wage growth is over 6%. The fact that inflation overall has been running higher than that so real wage growth has been negative doesn't mean there's been no wage inflation. Inflation is just the rise in prices. You're thinking about the overall effect on society, but that is second/third/fourth order effects. Nominal wages rising 6%, even though real wages are rising 0% still means an environment with 6% overall inflation, which exceeds the Fed's target of 2%.
      - paulmd 4y ago
        > Inflation-adjusting the nominal rise of prices that are causing inflation just hides the inflation. You can't analyze it that way Actually you can not just analyze but neutralize it that way. If everyone agrees to a wage that is indexed to inflation, and then starts numerating prices in that inflation-indexed currency... suddenly you don't have inflation anymore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real Maybe the US is starting to get to the "inertial inflation" situation, with workers demanding wages accounting for expected future increases and companies starting to structure costs along those expectations as well.
        4y ago
- landemva 4y ago
  For your item 1, those loans became gifts. And point 5 could be ever-increasing federal spending beyond federal taxation.

laylower 4y ago

Iamontocg, this would have been a sufficient explanation in a market with no interdependencies. Yet, the cause of the problem is not workers aiming for a living wage when the income inequality is at its all-time high. Inflation causes vary: 1) Covid business loans 2) Cost of logistics post covid 3) Corporate profits recently hit all time high 4) FX rate with EUR and GBP I agree that the vanilla solution seems to be the most effective - the knob as you called it. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be painless when credit expansion and overleveraged businesses and people are hit with the new higher rates.

lamontcg 4y ago
I don't know what made you think I suggested that this would be painless FX rates are also the result of twisting the knob, not the cause. And there's a lot of other factors in inflation, but the wage inflation is the one that has the Fed worried. The Fed knows everything else is cyclical and they weren't worried in the commodities boom and high oil prices in 2010-2014. The reason why they're so worried now is wage inflation. We haven't had wage inflation this high in 30 years and the Fed hasn't thrown on the brakes this hard since I can remember. This isn't the 25bp tightening every meeting of the Greenspan Fed.
- thunky 4y ago
  But there is no wage inflation overall. In real terms, wages are declining except for maybe the lowest earners [0]. For some reason that's unacceptable. [0] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employment-do-not-have-to-decline-to-bring-down-inflation/ https://www.americanprogress.org/article/wages-and-employmen...
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    > In real terms Nominally they are increasing, that is a component of inflation. Inflation-adjusting the nominal rise of prices that are causing inflation just hides the inflation. You can't analyze it that way. > For some reason that's unacceptable. I'm not the Fed, I don't support what they're doing, I'm just explaining it. EDIT: research from the Fed: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/september/wage-growth-when-inflation-is-high/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi... Wage growth is over 6%. The fact that inflation overall has been running higher than that so real wage growth has been negative doesn't mean there's been no wage inflation. Inflation is just the rise in prices. You're thinking about the overall effect on society, but that is second/third/fourth order effects. Nominal wages rising 6%, even though real wages are rising 0% still means an environment with 6% overall inflation, which exceeds the Fed's target of 2%.
    - paulmd 4y ago
      > Inflation-adjusting the nominal rise of prices that are causing inflation just hides the inflation. You can't analyze it that way Actually you can not just analyze but neutralize it that way. If everyone agrees to a wage that is indexed to inflation, and then starts numerating prices in that inflation-indexed currency... suddenly you don't have inflation anymore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano_Real Maybe the US is starting to get to the "inertial inflation" situation, with workers demanding wages accounting for expected future increases and companies starting to structure costs along those expectations as well.
      - 4y ago
landemva 4y ago
For your item 1, those loans became gifts. And point 5 could be ever-increasing federal spending beyond federal taxation.