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In fact many of the witnesses were active duty military and military veterans who knew exactly what a missile looked like.

jeffbee 4y ago
Just like in civilian life, most people in the military are truck mechanics, cooks, and suchlike. Imputing expertise upon such people is misdirection, just the same kind of misdirection this filing is using to impute authority on a person by citing him as "a physicist" and consistently referring to him as "doctor" out of context.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  Even truck mechanics, cooks, and the like have plenty of opportunities to see missile launches. EDIT : Missiles are far faster, and crucially, are on fire from the ground up. They go much straighter and produce much more consistent light than a burning half-plane, which is not capable of ascending anywhere close to vertically. They also make drastically different sounds, as one is supersonic and the other very much is not. They really do look and sound very different. I would expect someone who has seen and heard dozens of launches of that exact missile to be able to make it out quite easily. There are plenty of videos of that online and the difference is quite obvious. Especially someone who is used to this exact model of missile would be able to tell them apart.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    Yes, but how many have seen a mid-air explosion of a 747 to compare against? "It looked like a missile" may be entirely true. It may also be true that a burning, rapidly climbing half of a 747 looks a bit like a missile from afar. Re: edit: > Missiles are far faster Speed is notoriously hard to measure visually. Watch a A380 come in for a landing and you'll swear it's barely moving. > are on fire from the ground up Most of the eyewitnesses were over the horizon from any potential launch site. > They go much straighter and produce much more consistent light than a burning half-plane, which is not capable of ascending anywhere close to vertically A tail-heavy half of a 747 could absolutely go vertical for a bit with the entire nose missing. > They also make drastically different sounds, as one is supersonic and the other very much is not. People largely reported hearing an explosion, not a sonic boom.
    - avh02 4y ago
      Of everything you said > A tail-heavy half of a 747 could absolutely go vertical for a bit with the entire nose missing. Is doing some very heavy assuming.
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        I don’t know about “vertical”, but the pitch-up theory is the NTSB’s own, not the sole assumption of the person you’re responding to.
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        It's not an assumption. Here's what a tail-heavy 747 does: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUWC2jfjqI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUWC2jfjqI
        avh02 4y ago
        you will notice a rapid lack of upwards ('vertical') movement in that video.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        You’ll notice it’s taking off, not at cruise speed, and still makes a thousand or more feet into the air.
        avh02 4y ago
        Unfortunately I can't find altitude graphs or anything for national airlines 102, so can't really back up my argument with facts, but I'm gonna take a guess and say it wasn't flying like a rocket vertically upwards for 1000 feet. My guess is that it would have stalled very quickly after it nosed up too far and started dropping. You make a good point about TWA 800 being at cruise speed compared to the cargo flight, and let's assume you're right and it does manage to nose up and keep going for some time: in that case you'd see something go upwards after an explosion, not streak towards it - though eyewitness accounts in times like that have been known to be flakey, so i give up here.
  - rascul 4y ago
    > Even truck mechanics, cooks, and the like have plenty of opportunities to see missile launches. Not necessarily. Based on my time in the US Army, the opportunities for most troops to see missile launches first hand are fairly low. Even for those of us who were in air defense. Live fire exercises were rare, and we never got to fire any in Afghanistan.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      That specific base was home to a missile testing center, where dozens were shot.

jeffbee 4y ago

Just like in civilian life, most people in the military are truck mechanics, cooks, and suchlike. Imputing expertise upon such people is misdirection, just the same kind of misdirection this filing is using to impute authority on a person by citing him as "a physicist" and consistently referring to him as "doctor" out of context.

sudosysgen 4y ago
Even truck mechanics, cooks, and the like have plenty of opportunities to see missile launches. EDIT : Missiles are far faster, and crucially, are on fire from the ground up. They go much straighter and produce much more consistent light than a burning half-plane, which is not capable of ascending anywhere close to vertically. They also make drastically different sounds, as one is supersonic and the other very much is not. They really do look and sound very different. I would expect someone who has seen and heard dozens of launches of that exact missile to be able to make it out quite easily. There are plenty of videos of that online and the difference is quite obvious. Especially someone who is used to this exact model of missile would be able to tell them apart.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Yes, but how many have seen a mid-air explosion of a 747 to compare against? "It looked like a missile" may be entirely true. It may also be true that a burning, rapidly climbing half of a 747 looks a bit like a missile from afar. Re: edit: > Missiles are far faster Speed is notoriously hard to measure visually. Watch a A380 come in for a landing and you'll swear it's barely moving. > are on fire from the ground up Most of the eyewitnesses were over the horizon from any potential launch site. > They go much straighter and produce much more consistent light than a burning half-plane, which is not capable of ascending anywhere close to vertically A tail-heavy half of a 747 could absolutely go vertical for a bit with the entire nose missing. > They also make drastically different sounds, as one is supersonic and the other very much is not. People largely reported hearing an explosion, not a sonic boom.
  - avh02 4y ago
    Of everything you said > A tail-heavy half of a 747 could absolutely go vertical for a bit with the entire nose missing. Is doing some very heavy assuming.
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      I don’t know about “vertical”, but the pitch-up theory is the NTSB’s own, not the sole assumption of the person you’re responding to.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      It's not an assumption. Here's what a tail-heavy 747 does: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUWC2jfjqI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sUWC2jfjqI
      - avh02 4y ago
        you will notice a rapid lack of upwards ('vertical') movement in that video.
        ceejayoz 4y ago
        You’ll notice it’s taking off, not at cruise speed, and still makes a thousand or more feet into the air.
        avh02 4y ago
        Unfortunately I can't find altitude graphs or anything for national airlines 102, so can't really back up my argument with facts, but I'm gonna take a guess and say it wasn't flying like a rocket vertically upwards for 1000 feet. My guess is that it would have stalled very quickly after it nosed up too far and started dropping. You make a good point about TWA 800 being at cruise speed compared to the cargo flight, and let's assume you're right and it does manage to nose up and keep going for some time: in that case you'd see something go upwards after an explosion, not streak towards it - though eyewitness accounts in times like that have been known to be flakey, so i give up here.
- rascul 4y ago
  > Even truck mechanics, cooks, and the like have plenty of opportunities to see missile launches. Not necessarily. Based on my time in the US Army, the opportunities for most troops to see missile launches first hand are fairly low. Even for those of us who were in air defense. Live fire exercises were rare, and we never got to fire any in Afghanistan.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    That specific base was home to a missile testing center, where dozens were shot.