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Russia is going to capitalize on this and the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will collapse. This winter is going to be a very volatile time.

yaddaor 4y ago
Russia is trying to capitalize on this but the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will only strengthen even further. This winter is going to be a very hard time for Russia.
jopsen 4y ago
Democracies can endure a lot of hardship. Deciding to give in to Russia is not going to be popular. It's possible EU/NATO will collapse, it's not a while since we were tested like this. Well, maybe if we could endure covid lockdowns, then maybe a few rolling blackouts won't be the end of the EU. If nothing else rolling blackouts would motivate massive investment. Moreover, I doubt politicians will be able to see submission before Russia as a solution to rolling blackouts. The opposition will point out the obvious, Russia can just do it again.
qalmakka 4y ago
It would be pointless for Russia to rest their hopes on Italy to break NATO and EU unity - Meloni got fiercely pro-USA recently, and unless a miracle happens, Salvini is heading towards a total defeat tonight and is all but finished, same goes for Berlusconi. Also, it would be pointless for Italy to go against Europe just to get more Russian gas - because in all likelihood it would never happen in the first place. Russia can tempt Germany to leave Ukraine in the dust and open North Stream 2, but Italy gets its Russian gas through a pipeline that goes through Ukraine, Austria and Slovenia - anyone but a fool would think that the Ukranians would let the Italians get away with that. Ukraine can cut Italy's supply in an instant if they want. Italy needs LNG regasification capacity, and it needs it now. The only way to get it if FSRUs don't go online in the next few months is through the existing pipeline from the Netherlands.

yaddaor 4y ago

Russia is trying to capitalize on this but the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will only strengthen even further. This winter is going to be a very hard time for Russia.

jopsen 4y ago

Democracies can endure a lot of hardship. Deciding to give in to Russia is not going to be popular. It's possible EU/NATO will collapse, it's not a while since we were tested like this. Well, maybe if we could endure covid lockdowns, then maybe a few rolling blackouts won't be the end of the EU. If nothing else rolling blackouts would motivate massive investment. Moreover, I doubt politicians will be able to see submission before Russia as a solution to rolling blackouts. The opposition will point out the obvious, Russia can just do it again.

qalmakka 4y ago

It would be pointless for Russia to rest their hopes on Italy to break NATO and EU unity - Meloni got fiercely pro-USA recently, and unless a miracle happens, Salvini is heading towards a total defeat tonight and is all but finished, same goes for Berlusconi. Also, it would be pointless for Italy to go against Europe just to get more Russian gas - because in all likelihood it would never happen in the first place. Russia can tempt Germany to leave Ukraine in the dust and open North Stream 2, but Italy gets its Russian gas through a pipeline that goes through Ukraine, Austria and Slovenia - anyone but a fool would think that the Ukranians would let the Italians get away with that. Ukraine can cut Italy's supply in an instant if they want. Italy needs LNG regasification capacity, and it needs it now. The only way to get it if FSRUs don't go online in the next few months is through the existing pipeline from the Netherlands.