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The situation in Italy is bleak - due to widespread NIMBY-ism it's basically impossible to build anything. Even hooking up a LNG FSRU temporarily in an emergenc

The situation in Italy is bleak - due to widespread NIMBY-ism it's basically impossible to build anything. Even hooking up a LNG FSRU temporarily in an emergency situation like the current one is a monumental feat of burocracy and fighting against everyone and everything. There's a non zero chance that, together with the inevitable far right government that will come out of today's elections, the country will collapse between this and the following winter. Italy is just too dependent from NG, it can't just survive a total loss of supplies from Russia sadly.

carlivar 4y ago
What does the far right government have to do with the "inevitable collapse"? I'm not choosing sides but if the prior government's policies have led to this moment I don't see the logic here. I can imagine there are distasteful things about such leadership, but I'm curious about the economic and NIMBY aspects only.
- qalmakka 4y ago
  Italy is not in a situation to pull itself out of its problems - it's paralyzed due its chronic political instability and its abysmal political class born out of a dysfunctional system. While the left isn't that great either, the Italian right is among the worst in the continent - sleazy, dishonest, without any trace of a program except outright lies and the desire to grab power, and reform the constitution to establish an authoritarian regime like in Hungary. The truth is that the Italian people have been deeply disgruntled with politics for decades, and are only voting Meloni this time because they've been cyclically protest voting everyone that was in opposition to the last government for the last 30 years, since Berlusconi in 1994. People do not care a bit about her ideas, and I'd be damned if there's more than a single digit percent of her voters that do know a single policy she's pushing for. She simply wasn't in Draghi's government, so she's not the current establishment. If she fails to establish an authoritarian regime in the next few years, she'll be destroyed the next election in favour of someone else. That's how Italian politics work. Italy needs access to credit with EU rates and a strong EU in general to survive - but replacing a widely respected figure (Draghi) with a previously unknown Fascist nostalgic nobody really likes is not really a great way to project your influence in Brussels - quite the opposite. For instance, it's pointless for Italy to push for less sanctions to Russia, because the main pipeline that goes from Russia to Italy passes through several other countries, including Ukraine itself. Italy needs a EU wide NG price cap, fast, or it seriously risks social and economic collapse in the following months. About NIMBY: Italy rejected nuclear power due to widespread fears after Chernobyl that were capitalized by the corrupt political class of the time (a widespread sweep of that system happened in 1992 with the Mani Pulite process, but it was too late). Since then building ANYTHING in Italy immediately causes spontaneous committees of citizens to spring up to protest the realization of the aforementioned structure, infrastructure or public utility. For instance, people have protested in recent years: - against high speed trains, when Italy is a country where basically everything goes on polluting diesel trucks. This opposition delayed the project for years, but now finally Italy has a best in class high speed train service everyone loves. Go figure. - against dumps, waste-to-energy plants, biogas plants, and so on. Nobody wants them close to their area, even though they have to be built somewhere and Italy has a very high population density. Result? Rome is swimming in trash, everywhere, with no solution in sight. Italy is paying foreign countries to take their rubbish, wasting huge amounts of money. Forcing such a project through would mean committing a political suicide for any Italian politician. - against windmills. There are lots of offshore windmill farms that can't be built due to them being eyesores. It doesn't matter that Italy does need those mills desperately - it will still take them 4x the time to be built due to basically EVERYONE suing the state at every possible court up to the ECHR. - against NG pipelines and terminals. The mayor of Piombino, who ironically is from Brothers of Italy, is ferociously opposing docking a FSRU in order to start regasify LNG shipped from the US and Qatar, in order to cover for the supply reduction of Russian gas. It does not matter that it of paramount importance, people are suing the state company and thus delaying the process until the courts clear up the matter. The whole thing is worsened by the fact Italians have been the target of a deluge of fake news on social and conventional media for decades, way before it was a worldwide problem. That's how a media moghul such as Berlusconi got elected in the '90s/'00s in the first place.
koheripbal 4y ago
Russia is going to capitalize on this and the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will collapse. This winter is going to be a very volatile time.
- yaddaor 4y ago
  Russia is trying to capitalize on this but the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will only strengthen even further. This winter is going to be a very hard time for Russia.
- jopsen 4y ago
  Democracies can endure a lot of hardship. Deciding to give in to Russia is not going to be popular. It's possible EU/NATO will collapse, it's not a while since we were tested like this. Well, maybe if we could endure covid lockdowns, then maybe a few rolling blackouts won't be the end of the EU. If nothing else rolling blackouts would motivate massive investment. Moreover, I doubt politicians will be able to see submission before Russia as a solution to rolling blackouts. The opposition will point out the obvious, Russia can just do it again.
- qalmakka 4y ago
  It would be pointless for Russia to rest their hopes on Italy to break NATO and EU unity - Meloni got fiercely pro-USA recently, and unless a miracle happens, Salvini is heading towards a total defeat tonight and is all but finished, same goes for Berlusconi. Also, it would be pointless for Italy to go against Europe just to get more Russian gas - because in all likelihood it would never happen in the first place. Russia can tempt Germany to leave Ukraine in the dust and open North Stream 2, but Italy gets its Russian gas through a pipeline that goes through Ukraine, Austria and Slovenia - anyone but a fool would think that the Ukranians would let the Italians get away with that. Ukraine can cut Italy's supply in an instant if they want. Italy needs LNG regasification capacity, and it needs it now. The only way to get it if FSRUs don't go online in the next few months is through the existing pipeline from the Netherlands.

carlivar 4y ago

What does the far right government have to do with the "inevitable collapse"? I'm not choosing sides but if the prior government's policies have led to this moment I don't see the logic here. I can imagine there are distasteful things about such leadership, but I'm curious about the economic and NIMBY aspects only.

qalmakka 4y ago
Italy is not in a situation to pull itself out of its problems - it's paralyzed due its chronic political instability and its abysmal political class born out of a dysfunctional system. While the left isn't that great either, the Italian right is among the worst in the continent - sleazy, dishonest, without any trace of a program except outright lies and the desire to grab power, and reform the constitution to establish an authoritarian regime like in Hungary. The truth is that the Italian people have been deeply disgruntled with politics for decades, and are only voting Meloni this time because they've been cyclically protest voting everyone that was in opposition to the last government for the last 30 years, since Berlusconi in 1994. People do not care a bit about her ideas, and I'd be damned if there's more than a single digit percent of her voters that do know a single policy she's pushing for. She simply wasn't in Draghi's government, so she's not the current establishment. If she fails to establish an authoritarian regime in the next few years, she'll be destroyed the next election in favour of someone else. That's how Italian politics work. Italy needs access to credit with EU rates and a strong EU in general to survive - but replacing a widely respected figure (Draghi) with a previously unknown Fascist nostalgic nobody really likes is not really a great way to project your influence in Brussels - quite the opposite. For instance, it's pointless for Italy to push for less sanctions to Russia, because the main pipeline that goes from Russia to Italy passes through several other countries, including Ukraine itself. Italy needs a EU wide NG price cap, fast, or it seriously risks social and economic collapse in the following months. About NIMBY: Italy rejected nuclear power due to widespread fears after Chernobyl that were capitalized by the corrupt political class of the time (a widespread sweep of that system happened in 1992 with the Mani Pulite process, but it was too late). Since then building ANYTHING in Italy immediately causes spontaneous committees of citizens to spring up to protest the realization of the aforementioned structure, infrastructure or public utility. For instance, people have protested in recent years: - against high speed trains, when Italy is a country where basically everything goes on polluting diesel trucks. This opposition delayed the project for years, but now finally Italy has a best in class high speed train service everyone loves. Go figure. - against dumps, waste-to-energy plants, biogas plants, and so on. Nobody wants them close to their area, even though they have to be built somewhere and Italy has a very high population density. Result? Rome is swimming in trash, everywhere, with no solution in sight. Italy is paying foreign countries to take their rubbish, wasting huge amounts of money. Forcing such a project through would mean committing a political suicide for any Italian politician. - against windmills. There are lots of offshore windmill farms that can't be built due to them being eyesores. It doesn't matter that Italy does need those mills desperately - it will still take them 4x the time to be built due to basically EVERYONE suing the state at every possible court up to the ECHR. - against NG pipelines and terminals. The mayor of Piombino, who ironically is from Brothers of Italy, is ferociously opposing docking a FSRU in order to start regasify LNG shipped from the US and Qatar, in order to cover for the supply reduction of Russian gas. It does not matter that it of paramount importance, people are suing the state company and thus delaying the process until the courts clear up the matter. The whole thing is worsened by the fact Italians have been the target of a deluge of fake news on social and conventional media for decades, way before it was a worldwide problem. That's how a media moghul such as Berlusconi got elected in the '90s/'00s in the first place.

koheripbal 4y ago

Russia is going to capitalize on this and the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will collapse. This winter is going to be a very volatile time.

yaddaor 4y ago
Russia is trying to capitalize on this but the current EU/NATO consensus on the Ukraine conflict will only strengthen even further. This winter is going to be a very hard time for Russia.
jopsen 4y ago
Democracies can endure a lot of hardship. Deciding to give in to Russia is not going to be popular. It's possible EU/NATO will collapse, it's not a while since we were tested like this. Well, maybe if we could endure covid lockdowns, then maybe a few rolling blackouts won't be the end of the EU. If nothing else rolling blackouts would motivate massive investment. Moreover, I doubt politicians will be able to see submission before Russia as a solution to rolling blackouts. The opposition will point out the obvious, Russia can just do it again.
qalmakka 4y ago
It would be pointless for Russia to rest their hopes on Italy to break NATO and EU unity - Meloni got fiercely pro-USA recently, and unless a miracle happens, Salvini is heading towards a total defeat tonight and is all but finished, same goes for Berlusconi. Also, it would be pointless for Italy to go against Europe just to get more Russian gas - because in all likelihood it would never happen in the first place. Russia can tempt Germany to leave Ukraine in the dust and open North Stream 2, but Italy gets its Russian gas through a pipeline that goes through Ukraine, Austria and Slovenia - anyone but a fool would think that the Ukranians would let the Italians get away with that. Ukraine can cut Italy's supply in an instant if they want. Italy needs LNG regasification capacity, and it needs it now. The only way to get it if FSRUs don't go online in the next few months is through the existing pipeline from the Netherlands.