5 ms·

> Also the amount of LPG redirected from India and Pakistan to Europe will have a huge effect on those countries. India's buying the excess gas from Russia tho

by badpun 4y ago

> Also the amount of LPG redirected from India and Pakistan to Europe will have a huge effect on those countries. India's buying the excess gas from Russia though, so they have access to a seller that Europe won't touch.

distances 4y ago
There are currently no European sanctions against Russian gas. Nobody is very happy about it, but Europe would still buy that gas if the pipelines were open.
- origin_path 4y ago
  Multiple gas pipelines from Russia are closed because European governments refuse to allow them to run. That's gas sanctions, why do you argue otherwise? For example Germany refuses to open Nord Stream 2, and Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair - the turbines are made by Siemens and several are sitting in UK factories unable to be re-exported back due to sanctions. Although the troubles with Nord Stream 1 are well known, the termination of the other pipelines is less well understood. Poland for example closed the Jamal pipeline due to the war in Ukraine: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poland-terminates-yamal-gas-pipeline-agreement-with-russia https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poland-terminates-yamal-gas-... We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways, so at this point even if the pipelines were re-opened and the equipment properly repaired, it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Unreliable partner after all compared to China, India and elsewhere. Europe is buying their gas anyway due to arbitrage so it looks like a winner for Russia unfortunately.
  - kken 4y ago
    >Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair It's well known that this is not true. You are perpetuating russian propaganda.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      > It's well known that this is not true Well known? Is it? Could you please give some reference then? No one would be surprised to see a "work-to-rule" action, but how is it "russian propaganda" that Europe had sanctioned Russian energy industry and it "somehow" had consequences?
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - KronisLV 4y ago
        I don't really care much for the debate, or fully buy into either perspective on the issue, but here's what a quick search turned up, from the 31st of August: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-europe-inflation/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-eu... > Russian state energy giant Gazprom cut all deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Wednesday in what it said was a planned shutdown until Saturday for maintenance work. > In recent months, Gazprom has slashed flows through Nord Stream 1 to just 20% of capacity, citing maintenance issues and blaming Western sanctions on exports of technology imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. > Russia has also cut off supplies to several “unfriendly” European countries and energy companies over their refusal to pay for gas in rubles, as the Kremlin insists, rather than the euros or dollars stated in contracts. European leaders say Russia is trying to blackmail countries over their support for Ukraine. > France’s Engie (EGIEY) is the latest casualty. On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would completely suspend deliveries to Engie (EGIEY) from Thursday, claiming that it had not received full payment from the company for the gas it supplied in July. Someone can probably look up Gazprom's own PR response and see how it matches up (or doesn't) with the statement by Engie, as well as what differs. Most of the time it's good to look up what various sources say, if you're interested in it, and come to your own conclusions. From my perspective, reliance on another country, the relations with which have historically been troubled (and are now further strained, given the geopolitical events), does not seem like the best of ideas - alternative means of securing the resources that are needed for providing electricity/heat are more than welcome.
        4y ago
  - micwag 4y ago
    > We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways First point is true, but the second ist not. Germany went out its way to ensure all contracts are fulfilled to avoid this claim. > it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Russia very much wants to go back to selling gas and oil to europe, they have after all no other relevant industries and pipelines to China/India don't have the capacity to replace european delivery. > Europe is buying their gas anyway due to arbitrage so it looks like a winner for Russia unfortunately. Even chinese and indian experts see russia as the loser of this conflict and to be relegated to a possible chinese puppet state in the future.
    - mistrial9 4y ago
      > Even chinese and indian experts see russia as the loser of this conflict how is the ruble doing on international currency exchange?
      - micwag 4y ago
        To quote the state owned russian news agency: > "Repeated case of interference of the Bank of Russia into implementation of the budget rule in terms of foreign currency purchases means that the floating currency rate regime existed from the end of 2014 until early 2018 is ‘only on paper now’ and is actually substituted by regulation of the currency market by the Bank for Russia for the purpose of eliminating threats for financial stability, jeopardized by the budget rule effect," https://tass.com/economy/1026029 https://tass.com/economy/1026029 This was 4 years ago, and is even more so true now. The ruble at the moment is NOT free floating.
      - hackerlight 4y ago
        A higher FX is usually neither here nor there and whether it's desirable depends on the makeup of exports vs imports. That's why countries often have a fixed peg instead of a "just make it go up" policy. Russia is the definite loser out of this, and indeed everyone is, the decision to invade was a catastrophe for everyone on multiple levels.
      - 4y ago
  - phicoh 4y ago
    The key thing to remember is that Russia reduced the gas supply to Europe already one year ago. Way before they invaded Ukraine, and therefor before any of the recent sanctions. It is assumed that Russia sent a warning message to EU countries not to interfere. Fortunately, most EU countries recognized that Russia was no longer a reliable supplier. And imposed sanctions, delivered weapons anyhow. Russia thought they could threaten their most important customers. The problem Russia now has, it that there is hardly any capacity to sell gas to other countries. Building pipelines will take many years and will have to happen without western technology (I'm sure Russia would like China to own their pipelines). Or Russia has to build more LNG terminals, but that is also not ideal. And ship from western countries probably won't go there. Of course, the downside of relying to much on Russian gas is that EU countries now have to deal with an enormous energy shortage.
    - cloutchaser 4y ago
      I think you are reading way too many one sided sources. The Russians are selling more to China and India since the war. The higher price of gas means in the short run they are making more money. Yes, some sanctions might be annoying, in the way a mosquito is annoying to you, but basically nothing europe has done has really had an impact. (Most weapons have come from the US). So while parts of what you say is true, frankly the situation is terrible for Europe, quite bad for Russia, and pretty awesome for the US
      - phicoh 4y ago
        Yes, Russia is selling a little bit more to China and India. Not nearly enough to make up for the reduction in sales to EU countries. In addition, China and India get nice discounts. Yes, Russia makes a lot more money at the moment because the small amount of gas they still sell to EU countries is expensive enough that it nets more money. Anybody who has been following the war a bit will notice that Russia is now seriously running out of modern weapons. By the time tanks from the early 60s show up at the front line, you can be sure something is wrong. At the moment, and due sanctions, Russia has a bit of a production problem. Since the 2014 sanctions, Russia has a bit a problem with obtaining micro-electronics. The effects of that are also quite noticeable. In any case. Over the summer, EU countries managed to fill their gas storage while producing enough electricity to keep most stuff running. So yes, the situation is bad for the economy and EU countries have to figure how to help people pay their energy bill, etc. But if the current situation is 'terrible' then I wonder what word has to be used for a real disaster.
  - distances 4y ago
    You have quite the nerve to spread these falsehoods here, and then claim it's Europe that is the unreliable partner. Amazing and supremely twisted. I have no interest in discussing this with you as you're not here with good intentions, but I would let others know that Western countries were very accommodating with the spare parts, which in practice called the Russian bluff. I doubt Germany will go back to Russian gas after they pulled this one. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-turbine-tension-puts-focus-gas-pipeline-parts-2022-09-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-turbine-...
    - osipov 4y ago
    - hi_herbert 4y ago

by badpun 4y ago

distances 4y ago

There are currently no European sanctions against Russian gas. Nobody is very happy about it, but Europe would still buy that gas if the pipelines were open.

origin_path 4y ago
Multiple gas pipelines from Russia are closed because European governments refuse to allow them to run. That's gas sanctions, why do you argue otherwise? For example Germany refuses to open Nord Stream 2, and Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair - the turbines are made by Siemens and several are sitting in UK factories unable to be re-exported back due to sanctions. Although the troubles with Nord Stream 1 are well known, the termination of the other pipelines is less well understood. Poland for example closed the Jamal pipeline due to the war in Ukraine: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poland-terminates-yamal-gas-pipeline-agreement-with-russia https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poland-terminates-yamal-gas-... We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways, so at this point even if the pipelines were re-opened and the equipment properly repaired, it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Unreliable partner after all compared to China, India and elsewhere. Europe is buying their gas anyway due to arbitrage so it looks like a winner for Russia unfortunately.
- kken 4y ago
  >Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair It's well known that this is not true. You are perpetuating russian propaganda.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > It's well known that this is not true Well known? Is it? Could you please give some reference then? No one would be surprised to see a "work-to-rule" action, but how is it "russian propaganda" that Europe had sanctioned Russian energy industry and it "somehow" had consequences?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - KronisLV 4y ago
      I don't really care much for the debate, or fully buy into either perspective on the issue, but here's what a quick search turned up, from the 31st of August: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-europe-inflation/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-eu... > Russian state energy giant Gazprom cut all deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Wednesday in what it said was a planned shutdown until Saturday for maintenance work. > In recent months, Gazprom has slashed flows through Nord Stream 1 to just 20% of capacity, citing maintenance issues and blaming Western sanctions on exports of technology imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. > Russia has also cut off supplies to several “unfriendly” European countries and energy companies over their refusal to pay for gas in rubles, as the Kremlin insists, rather than the euros or dollars stated in contracts. European leaders say Russia is trying to blackmail countries over their support for Ukraine. > France’s Engie (EGIEY) is the latest casualty. On Tuesday, Gazprom said it would completely suspend deliveries to Engie (EGIEY) from Thursday, claiming that it had not received full payment from the company for the gas it supplied in July. Someone can probably look up Gazprom's own PR response and see how it matches up (or doesn't) with the statement by Engie, as well as what differs. Most of the time it's good to look up what various sources say, if you're interested in it, and come to your own conclusions. From my perspective, reliance on another country, the relations with which have historically been troubled (and are now further strained, given the geopolitical events), does not seem like the best of ideas - alternative means of securing the resources that are needed for providing electricity/heat are more than welcome.
      - 4y ago
- micwag 4y ago
  > We also have to remember that Europe seized Russian euros and broke contracts in other ways First point is true, but the second ist not. Germany went out its way to ensure all contracts are fulfilled to avoid this claim. > it's not really obvious if Russia would even want to go back to selling to Europe. Russia very much wants to go back to selling gas and oil to europe, they have after all no other relevant industries and pipelines to China/India don't have the capacity to replace european delivery. > Europe is buying their gas anyway due to arbitrage so it looks like a winner for Russia unfortunately. Even chinese and indian experts see russia as the loser of this conflict and to be relegated to a possible chinese puppet state in the future.
  - mistrial9 4y ago
    > Even chinese and indian experts see russia as the loser of this conflict how is the ruble doing on international currency exchange?
    - micwag 4y ago
      To quote the state owned russian news agency: > "Repeated case of interference of the Bank of Russia into implementation of the budget rule in terms of foreign currency purchases means that the floating currency rate regime existed from the end of 2014 until early 2018 is ‘only on paper now’ and is actually substituted by regulation of the currency market by the Bank for Russia for the purpose of eliminating threats for financial stability, jeopardized by the budget rule effect," https://tass.com/economy/1026029 https://tass.com/economy/1026029 This was 4 years ago, and is even more so true now. The ruble at the moment is NOT free floating.
    - hackerlight 4y ago
      A higher FX is usually neither here nor there and whether it's desirable depends on the makeup of exports vs imports. That's why countries often have a fixed peg instead of a "just make it go up" policy. Russia is the definite loser out of this, and indeed everyone is, the decision to invade was a catastrophe for everyone on multiple levels.
    - 4y ago
- phicoh 4y ago
  The key thing to remember is that Russia reduced the gas supply to Europe already one year ago. Way before they invaded Ukraine, and therefor before any of the recent sanctions. It is assumed that Russia sent a warning message to EU countries not to interfere. Fortunately, most EU countries recognized that Russia was no longer a reliable supplier. And imposed sanctions, delivered weapons anyhow. Russia thought they could threaten their most important customers. The problem Russia now has, it that there is hardly any capacity to sell gas to other countries. Building pipelines will take many years and will have to happen without western technology (I'm sure Russia would like China to own their pipelines). Or Russia has to build more LNG terminals, but that is also not ideal. And ship from western countries probably won't go there. Of course, the downside of relying to much on Russian gas is that EU countries now have to deal with an enormous energy shortage.
  - cloutchaser 4y ago
    I think you are reading way too many one sided sources. The Russians are selling more to China and India since the war. The higher price of gas means in the short run they are making more money. Yes, some sanctions might be annoying, in the way a mosquito is annoying to you, but basically nothing europe has done has really had an impact. (Most weapons have come from the US). So while parts of what you say is true, frankly the situation is terrible for Europe, quite bad for Russia, and pretty awesome for the US
    - phicoh 4y ago
      Yes, Russia is selling a little bit more to China and India. Not nearly enough to make up for the reduction in sales to EU countries. In addition, China and India get nice discounts. Yes, Russia makes a lot more money at the moment because the small amount of gas they still sell to EU countries is expensive enough that it nets more money. Anybody who has been following the war a bit will notice that Russia is now seriously running out of modern weapons. By the time tanks from the early 60s show up at the front line, you can be sure something is wrong. At the moment, and due sanctions, Russia has a bit of a production problem. Since the 2014 sanctions, Russia has a bit a problem with obtaining micro-electronics. The effects of that are also quite noticeable. In any case. Over the summer, EU countries managed to fill their gas storage while producing enough electricity to keep most stuff running. So yes, the situation is bad for the economy and EU countries have to figure how to help people pay their energy bill, etc. But if the current situation is 'terrible' then I wonder what word has to be used for a real disaster.
- distances 4y ago
  You have quite the nerve to spread these falsehoods here, and then claim it's Europe that is the unreliable partner. Amazing and supremely twisted. I have no interest in discussing this with you as you're not here with good intentions, but I would let others know that Western countries were very accommodating with the spare parts, which in practice called the Russian bluff. I doubt Germany will go back to Russian gas after they pulled this one. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-turbine-tension-puts-focus-gas-pipeline-parts-2022-09-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-turbine-...
  - osipov 4y ago
  - hi_herbert 4y ago