3 ms·
Your 'understanding' is rear-view-mirror/past-performance logic and the whole point of "the science" [1] is to communicate that that WILL NOT HOLD. A 3.5C worl
by cagenut 4y ago
Your 'understanding' is rear-view-mirror/past-performance logic and the whole point of "the science" [1] is to communicate that that WILL NOT HOLD.
A 3.5C world is one in which large portions of the tropics (central america, northern africa, the middle east, india and large parts of china) will simply be depopulated. They can leave as refugees or stay as bodies. At 2.5C thats still largely true but say its only half the populations. Nobody is "better off" living through the droughts, famines, and conflicts that lead to that level of depopulation.
Essentially at 3C and above we're doing an irish-famine/holodomor to somewhere between an eighth and a quarter of humanity. To imply they might be 'better off' for it is so grotesque I'll assume you're not a monster and simply don't grasp the 1.5<->3.5C consequence ranges and timeline.
[1] just as one example here's the 'multi sector risk' indexed by (poor) population: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/Figure_3.18.jpg https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/Figu...
Those are the people who are being hit the hardest. Many more good graphs in that report: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/
Probably most important of all is to really deeply memorize that first one to understand the most important variable in the whole conversation: TIME
- AbrahamParangi 4y agoThere’s some non-zero risk of this happening, conceivably, although I would contest it. But there is no way that you can frame it as a certainty and call that science.
- cagenut 4y agoI very literally linked to the scientific reports. The explanatory text next the graphic I mentioned explains how the bands between the lines represent the 33rd to 66th% confidence intervals. Its worth noting SR15 is the older report and AR6 has since tightened the bands/confidence-levels. They just didn't redo the graph so I still link to the SR15 one.
- nathanaldensr 4y agoAgreed. Climate panic adherents look to fallible and flawed scientific models for confirmation of their beliefs the same way Judeo-Christians look to the Bible for theirs.