5 ms·

Then why don’t they articulate this to us? Seems more like they are finding any way possible to mask the economic pain we are facing. Print money, fire-sale o

Then why don’t they articulate this to us? Seems more like they are finding any way possible to mask the economic pain we are facing. Print money, fire-sale our assets, borrow more. Anything to push out the day of reckoning and ensure that the music stops under someone else’s watch.

ncallaway 4y ago
How is selling oil at a high point a “fire sale”? Isn’t a fire sale usually selling at a… low price?
Spooky23 4y ago
So would your preferred solution be to endure maximum pain now? Even the Trump team, to their credit, understood that the economy imploding due to the COVID actions was a bad thing - so they rushed capital into the market to keep things moving. That caused inflation, but inflation is a better outcome than the alternative. We don’t live in a video game, and there’s no cheat code to make problems go poof.
- nl 4y ago
  Yeah I don't get what the parent comment is proposing. People say this or that will happen in the long term, but there are so many impossible to predict variables that the best you can really do is try to keep the economy robust enough to absorb shocks. Economy slowing because of COVID? Deal with that. Inflation happening because of constrained supply chains? Use the oil reserve to reduce the price. These are pretty reasonable policies that both side of politics would do when in power because they make sense.
- ALittleLight 4y ago
  My preferred solution would be that we resolve the Ukraine crisis by negotiating peace, lift sanctions, and unblock the Russian-European energy market which is, I assume, the source of this pressure. Tell Ukraine they have to make peace, and if they aren't reasonable at the negotiating table there is no more NATO support. Offer Russia the chance to save face while they are doing badly, and throw in the promise of no NATO in Ukraine for 20 years.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    Peace only happens when Russia fully leave Ukraine (including Crimea), returns all kidnapped Ukrainians and the responsible Russians faces punishment for the rape and genocide of Ukrainians. Ukraine also needs to receive security guarantees from a country that is military strong enough that they could push back Russia in a small amount of time. Any less is capitulating to Russia and shouldn’t happen.
    - ALittleLight 4y ago
      No, peace happens when all participants agree there should be peace. That could be in a "Russia completely repelled" situation, it could also be in a situation like the present, where Ukraine has had remarkable success on the field and decides to ask for peace at a time where Russia might want to cut their losses. As I mentioned, the US could enhance the peace offer by adding in a NATO moratorium for Ukraine. Of course, peace could come in a situation that was more favorable to Russia too. If their mobilization works better than expected, and their army starts to get their act together, or they unleash tactical nuclear weapons, or they wait till the dead of winter and level Ukrainian power, or who knows what? The US and Europe never committed to a suicide pact to ensure the sovereignty and integrity of every nation in Eastern Europe. We should not be acting like we have signed this pact. We do not need to risk World War III over who controls a few territories in Eastern Ukraine.
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        > If their mobilization works better than expected, and their army starts to get their act together, or they unleash tactical nuclear weapons, or they wait till the dead of winter and level Ukrainian power, or who knows what? I doubt that there mobilisation will produce any results outside of more dead Russians. I mean there professional army has been destroyed so baldy that they need mobilise and you think random citizens will make better soldiers?. US has made it clear that any use of tactical nuke in Ukraine is a real line in the sand. It would likely result in US direct involvement in the war in a conventional matter. But that’s easily enough considering just how bad the Russian army has been shown to perform. > he US and Europe never committed to a suicide pact to ensure the sovereignty and integrity of every nation in Eastern Europe. We should not be acting like we have signed this pact. We do not need to risk World War III over who controls a few territories in Eastern Ukraine. I’m sure you’d care more if it was your children being raped, if it was your children being tortured, if it was your people having genocide committed against them. It’s always interesting to watch the pro Russian people bang on about nukes whenever Russia starts losing. It’s so transparent, they rattle the nuclear sabre because they won’t even think of using actual nukes.
kchoudhu 4y ago
Because the median voter's eyes will glaze over as soon as you say "oil futures term structure", and is more likely to say what you just did than to entertain the idea that there may be a second order game in play. The people who need to know, know. Everyone else can pretend that there are children in charge.
maxerickson 4y ago
They announced it. https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-long-term-buyback-plan-ensuring-continued-availability-strategic-petroleum https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-long-term-buyb... The only aspect of it that people actually care about is how much gas costs at the pump, the rest of it is just media froth, so I can see why the government isn't working very hard to repeatedly communicate that they are participating in the market in an attempt to smooth out supply and demand. That they are selling and buying into the global market is a lot better than trying to fix prices or mandate production or rationing.
curiousllama 4y ago
> Then why don’t they articulate this to us? They do. At multiple levels of detail & complexity, depending on the specific audience (industry, general public, academics, etc.). In general, I've found that when I ask "why doesn't the government just say that?" the answer is typically "they did, I just didn't hear it"

ncallaway 4y ago

How is selling oil at a high point a “fire sale”? Isn’t a fire sale usually selling at a… low price?

Spooky23 4y ago

So would your preferred solution be to endure maximum pain now? Even the Trump team, to their credit, understood that the economy imploding due to the COVID actions was a bad thing - so they rushed capital into the market to keep things moving. That caused inflation, but inflation is a better outcome than the alternative. We don’t live in a video game, and there’s no cheat code to make problems go poof.

nl 4y ago
Yeah I don't get what the parent comment is proposing. People say this or that will happen in the long term, but there are so many impossible to predict variables that the best you can really do is try to keep the economy robust enough to absorb shocks. Economy slowing because of COVID? Deal with that. Inflation happening because of constrained supply chains? Use the oil reserve to reduce the price. These are pretty reasonable policies that both side of politics would do when in power because they make sense.
ALittleLight 4y ago
My preferred solution would be that we resolve the Ukraine crisis by negotiating peace, lift sanctions, and unblock the Russian-European energy market which is, I assume, the source of this pressure. Tell Ukraine they have to make peace, and if they aren't reasonable at the negotiating table there is no more NATO support. Offer Russia the chance to save face while they are doing badly, and throw in the promise of no NATO in Ukraine for 20 years.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  Peace only happens when Russia fully leave Ukraine (including Crimea), returns all kidnapped Ukrainians and the responsible Russians faces punishment for the rape and genocide of Ukrainians. Ukraine also needs to receive security guarantees from a country that is military strong enough that they could push back Russia in a small amount of time. Any less is capitulating to Russia and shouldn’t happen.
  - ALittleLight 4y ago
    No, peace happens when all participants agree there should be peace. That could be in a "Russia completely repelled" situation, it could also be in a situation like the present, where Ukraine has had remarkable success on the field and decides to ask for peace at a time where Russia might want to cut their losses. As I mentioned, the US could enhance the peace offer by adding in a NATO moratorium for Ukraine. Of course, peace could come in a situation that was more favorable to Russia too. If their mobilization works better than expected, and their army starts to get their act together, or they unleash tactical nuclear weapons, or they wait till the dead of winter and level Ukrainian power, or who knows what? The US and Europe never committed to a suicide pact to ensure the sovereignty and integrity of every nation in Eastern Europe. We should not be acting like we have signed this pact. We do not need to risk World War III over who controls a few territories in Eastern Ukraine.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      > If their mobilization works better than expected, and their army starts to get their act together, or they unleash tactical nuclear weapons, or they wait till the dead of winter and level Ukrainian power, or who knows what? I doubt that there mobilisation will produce any results outside of more dead Russians. I mean there professional army has been destroyed so baldy that they need mobilise and you think random citizens will make better soldiers?. US has made it clear that any use of tactical nuke in Ukraine is a real line in the sand. It would likely result in US direct involvement in the war in a conventional matter. But that’s easily enough considering just how bad the Russian army has been shown to perform. > he US and Europe never committed to a suicide pact to ensure the sovereignty and integrity of every nation in Eastern Europe. We should not be acting like we have signed this pact. We do not need to risk World War III over who controls a few territories in Eastern Ukraine. I’m sure you’d care more if it was your children being raped, if it was your children being tortured, if it was your people having genocide committed against them. It’s always interesting to watch the pro Russian people bang on about nukes whenever Russia starts losing. It’s so transparent, they rattle the nuclear sabre because they won’t even think of using actual nukes.

kchoudhu 4y ago

Because the median voter's eyes will glaze over as soon as you say "oil futures term structure", and is more likely to say what you just did than to entertain the idea that there may be a second order game in play. The people who need to know, know. Everyone else can pretend that there are children in charge.

maxerickson 4y ago

They announced it. https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-long-term-buyback-plan-ensuring-continued-availability-strategic-petroleum https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-long-term-buyb... The only aspect of it that people actually care about is how much gas costs at the pump, the rest of it is just media froth, so I can see why the government isn't working very hard to repeatedly communicate that they are participating in the market in an attempt to smooth out supply and demand. That they are selling and buying into the global market is a lot better than trying to fix prices or mandate production or rationing.

curiousllama 4y ago

> Then why don’t they articulate this to us? They do. At multiple levels of detail & complexity, depending on the specific audience (industry, general public, academics, etc.). In general, I've found that when I ask "why doesn't the government just say that?" the answer is typically "they did, I just didn't hear it"