3 ms·

One of the problems is that its so dependent on government policy its difficult to predict. Eg right now France caps its electricity prices so power generators

by rr808 4y ago

One of the problems is that its so dependent on government policy its difficult to predict. Eg right now France caps its electricity prices so power generators aren't making the profits they would in a free market. Also who knows what will happen down the road when cheaper renewables or nuclear comes online.

ncmncm 4y ago
Renewables, anyway.
geysersam 4y ago
Why would cheaper nuclear come online anytime the next 2 decades? Serious question, is there any indication that this is likely to happen? More nuclear, sure, maybe even small reactors sometime 2030, but much cheaper?
- goodpoint 4y ago
  If anything nuclear keeps increasing in cost while renewables keep getting cheaper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#/media/File:3-Learning-curves-for-electricity-prices.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#...
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Small reactors might start to get economy of scale in manufacture, but operators would see the opposite result, either the same attention needed for much less power, or the same power but many times the work. Nukes' operation is a minority cost only by comparison to monstrous capital cost. It is way more than for, e.g., coal, fuel aside. The manufacturer might instrument it heavily, and take up remote and semi-automated management of the whole fleet, but that also raises total cost vs. big reactors. It is impossible for mature tech to keep up where the competition's cost falls at a relentlessly exponential pace. Reactors are, unavoidably, about massive steel and concrete, plumbing, valves, pumps, and steam turbines, none of those getting cheaper.
jopsen 4y ago
Cheaper renewables might be a risk... Well, even more wind might be.. because the price for electricity will be low for all wind farms when the wind is blowing. It seems like there might be a lot of debt here exposed to a risk that the prices for electricity drop when it's windy.

by rr808 4y ago

ncmncm 4y ago

Renewables, anyway.

geysersam 4y ago

Why would cheaper nuclear come online anytime the next 2 decades? Serious question, is there any indication that this is likely to happen? More nuclear, sure, maybe even small reactors sometime 2030, but much cheaper?

goodpoint 4y ago
If anything nuclear keeps increasing in cost while renewables keep getting cheaper: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#/media/File:3-Learning-curves-for-electricity-prices.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#...
ncmncm 4y ago
Small reactors might start to get economy of scale in manufacture, but operators would see the opposite result, either the same attention needed for much less power, or the same power but many times the work. Nukes' operation is a minority cost only by comparison to monstrous capital cost. It is way more than for, e.g., coal, fuel aside. The manufacturer might instrument it heavily, and take up remote and semi-automated management of the whole fleet, but that also raises total cost vs. big reactors. It is impossible for mature tech to keep up where the competition's cost falls at a relentlessly exponential pace. Reactors are, unavoidably, about massive steel and concrete, plumbing, valves, pumps, and steam turbines, none of those getting cheaper.

jopsen 4y ago

Cheaper renewables might be a risk... Well, even more wind might be.. because the price for electricity will be low for all wind farms when the wind is blowing. It seems like there might be a lot of debt here exposed to a risk that the prices for electricity drop when it's windy.