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Fair enough. Jacobabad is absolutely an edge case. The question is, is it just an outlier or are other places headed that way? Are the conditions that drive up
by signal11 4y ago
Fair enough. Jacobabad is absolutely an edge case. The question is, is it just an outlier or are other places headed that way? Are the conditions that drive up wet bulb temps increasing, thanks to human activity?
E.g. the number of Indian cities inching towards high 40s (Celsius) is climbing. Heck, New Delhi this year saw 49 C air temps, which was unheard of. But re wet bulb temps, the trend is troubling[1].
Plenty of Indian cities are crossing wet bulb > 31 C, which puts the elderly and infirm at risk when they're outside. Yes -- going from here to > 35 C is a big leap, but if you say it cannot happen that's ... a "hope for the best" mindset.
Who knows, nothing might come out of it, but if the climate change models are correct, there's more pain ahead.
Let's take a midpoint scenario between 'absolute best' and 'absolute worst' and assume summer wet bulbs increase slightly over time, not enough to breach 35 C. That's still temps in the 31...34 C range in major Indian cities, that basically makes it hell for the elderly and infirm. What are the social costs of that? Bear in mind, despite India's progress, it still has a fair number of people with limited means. And the number of elderly in India will grow over time as its "youth bulge" tapers off.
[1] https://archive.ph/sPVL2 https://archive.ph/sPVL2