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> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking It's been almost 200 years since Malthus's passing and the human population has octupled since then, so you'd thi

> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking It's been almost 200 years since Malthus's passing and the human population has octupled since then, so you'd think that most people would give him less credence, but you're right those ideas seem more popular than ever. I keep on repeating on this forum that the way out is through, with better technology allowing us to consume more energy per capita, not less. There is no freezing or turning back the clock without the suffering of billions.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Read A Farewell to Alms. Malthus's thinking was objectively correct up to the time of writing. He just made & recorded the observations at almost exactly the wrong time, right before the trend reversed, during the industrial revolution. I'm not claiming that we have reached a new era where - once again - growing population = worse living conditions. But there are a lot of good arguments WRT to limits on fossil fuel extraction, physical limitations on technological progress, etc... Light bulbs can't get much more efficient. Neither can electricity transmission. Energy generation still has a healthy amount to improve. Maybe there's enough progress left to be made for the population to double again. But the idea that the population could be near infinite on this planet and that would only lead to more progress and better living conditions is laughable. There's clearly some limit. My crystal ball isn't working. I don't know if we've passed it, or are even close to it...
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  There's lots of room to improve electricity transmission. Local generation is more efficient than remote generation. This is especially important in poor rural areas. Build somebody a natgas generator and they're dependent on you for fuel. Build them a nuclear plant and they're dependent on you for experts. Give them a solar panel and now they independent.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    Assuming they don't need electricity at night or when it's cloudy and they only need one solar panel's worth of electricity and they don't live in a condo where they have nowhere to put it...
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    Energy demand is concentrated in population centers. In practice, renewables result more remote generation: https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-energy-high-voltage-transmission-lines https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-ene... I'm always amused when people talk about a decentralized grid as though it's a positive. It's a liability, since energy demand is centralized.
tarakat 4y ago
The World Lost Two-Thirds Of Its Wildlife In 50 Years. We Are to Blame - https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911500907/the-world-lost-two-thirds-of-its-wildlife-in-50-years-we-are-to-blame https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911500907/the-world-lost-two-... > There is no freezing or turning back the clock without the suffering of billions. Do you believe developed countries with below-replacement fertility are suffering? Or does "turning back the clock" refer to something other than population shrinkage?
- rayiner 4y ago
  > Do you believe developed countries with below-replacement fertility are suffering? Yes. Life in parts of the western world where below-replacement fertility has really taken hold is lonely, atomized and self-centered. People anesthetize themselves with entertainment and distractions. I love Germany and Japan, but in some ways it makes me a bit uncomfortable. They're societies that will be much smaller 100 years from now than they re today, and they know it, and it is kind of awkward. Closer to home, I visited Garland, TX, during the pandemic. The contrast from DC, where I live, was remarkable. Garland was alive! DC was dead.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

Read A Farewell to Alms. Malthus's thinking was objectively correct up to the time of writing. He just made & recorded the observations at almost exactly the wrong time, right before the trend reversed, during the industrial revolution. I'm not claiming that we have reached a new era where - once again - growing population = worse living conditions. But there are a lot of good arguments WRT to limits on fossil fuel extraction, physical limitations on technological progress, etc... Light bulbs can't get much more efficient. Neither can electricity transmission. Energy generation still has a healthy amount to improve. Maybe there's enough progress left to be made for the population to double again. But the idea that the population could be near infinite on this planet and that would only lead to more progress and better living conditions is laughable. There's clearly some limit. My crystal ball isn't working. I don't know if we've passed it, or are even close to it...

bryanlarsen 4y ago
There's lots of room to improve electricity transmission. Local generation is more efficient than remote generation. This is especially important in poor rural areas. Build somebody a natgas generator and they're dependent on you for fuel. Build them a nuclear plant and they're dependent on you for experts. Give them a solar panel and now they independent.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  Assuming they don't need electricity at night or when it's cloudy and they only need one solar panel's worth of electricity and they don't live in a condo where they have nowhere to put it...
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  Energy demand is concentrated in population centers. In practice, renewables result more remote generation: https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-energy-high-voltage-transmission-lines https://www.vox.com/videos/22685707/climate-change-clean-ene... I'm always amused when people talk about a decentralized grid as though it's a positive. It's a liability, since energy demand is centralized.

tarakat 4y ago

The World Lost Two-Thirds Of Its Wildlife In 50 Years. We Are to Blame - https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911500907/the-world-lost-two-thirds-of-its-wildlife-in-50-years-we-are-to-blame https://www.npr.org/2020/09/10/911500907/the-world-lost-two-... > There is no freezing or turning back the clock without the suffering of billions. Do you believe developed countries with below-replacement fertility are suffering? Or does "turning back the clock" refer to something other than population shrinkage?

rayiner 4y ago
> Do you believe developed countries with below-replacement fertility are suffering? Yes. Life in parts of the western world where below-replacement fertility has really taken hold is lonely, atomized and self-centered. People anesthetize themselves with entertainment and distractions. I love Germany and Japan, but in some ways it makes me a bit uncomfortable. They're societies that will be much smaller 100 years from now than they re today, and they know it, and it is kind of awkward. Closer to home, I visited Garland, TX, during the pandemic. The contrast from DC, where I live, was remarkable. Garland was alive! DC was dead.