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Aluminum ore is super-abundant. There is no possibility of any country anywhere on Earth running short. The only per-ton expense to produce it is for electrici

by ncmncm 4y ago

Aluminum ore is super-abundant. There is no possibility of any country anywhere on Earth running short. The only per-ton expense to produce it is for electricity, which price will be falling very, very fast. So, no, we will not run short of aluminum, even at many times current production rate. Aluminum production process from ore + electric -> metal is extremely mature. Factories to make the factories have already been running for most of a century. They will operate at night on wind and, during lulls, drawing down storage. They could keep hot by burning powdered aluminum. New ones will be built preferably where wind is reliable, or (as now) hydro power is cheap. Or they might be built near a cliff, and operate their own pumped hydro. So, no, intermittent sources are not a problem for them or really for anybody, because storage is easy and cheap.

snovv_crash 4y ago
Absolutely, no shortage of aluminium, as I said, copper is the one where the mining is the bottleneck, for aluminium it is energy for the smelting. Night time energy storage for the smelters is not a solved issue still and significantly increases the costs beyond just adding sufficient PV panels adjacent to the smelter. Storage is not "easy and cheap" as you assert, otherwise there would be no reason to build the longitudinal grid connections GP was talking about.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Grid connections will be used when they are cheaper than drawing down storage. You need them anyway, and want them as a place to dump excess power when local storage is full. Storage cost is falling even faster than renewable generation did, coming from behind. Now the factories for storage are under construction. By the time we have enough renewable generation capacity to charge storage from, storage will be very cheap. It would be stupid to build out more storage than you have excess to charge it from, beyond some batteries for load smoothing. Unsurprisingly, people responsible are doing non-stupid things. (Except placing solar farms in the desert, that is indefensible.)
  - ben_w 4y ago
    > (Except placing solar farms in the desert, that is indefensible.) You should blog or vlog about this. I've seen you write this enough times over the last few years(?), and linking to a longer-form argument may be worthwhile. (I should do the same for the global power grid; there are some wrinkles I want to explore with that also).
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      It's trivial, really: heat and dust drag down conversion efficiency and panel life. There are just so many other, better places to put them that may continue being used.

by ncmncm 4y ago

snovv_crash 4y ago

Absolutely, no shortage of aluminium, as I said, copper is the one where the mining is the bottleneck, for aluminium it is energy for the smelting. Night time energy storage for the smelters is not a solved issue still and significantly increases the costs beyond just adding sufficient PV panels adjacent to the smelter. Storage is not "easy and cheap" as you assert, otherwise there would be no reason to build the longitudinal grid connections GP was talking about.

ncmncm 4y ago
Grid connections will be used when they are cheaper than drawing down storage. You need them anyway, and want them as a place to dump excess power when local storage is full. Storage cost is falling even faster than renewable generation did, coming from behind. Now the factories for storage are under construction. By the time we have enough renewable generation capacity to charge storage from, storage will be very cheap. It would be stupid to build out more storage than you have excess to charge it from, beyond some batteries for load smoothing. Unsurprisingly, people responsible are doing non-stupid things. (Except placing solar farms in the desert, that is indefensible.)
- ben_w 4y ago
  > (Except placing solar farms in the desert, that is indefensible.) You should blog or vlog about this. I've seen you write this enough times over the last few years(?), and linking to a longer-form argument may be worthwhile. (I should do the same for the global power grid; there are some wrinkles I want to explore with that also).
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    It's trivial, really: heat and dust drag down conversion efficiency and panel life. There are just so many other, better places to put them that may continue being used.