4 ms·
While I'm not interested in chess in general, I'm deeply curious how Carlsen (assuming good intent) could figure out Niemann was cheating. The ideas I have rig
by xlii 4y ago
While I'm not interested in chess in general, I'm deeply curious how Carlsen (assuming good intent) could figure out Niemann was cheating.
The ideas I have right now would be:
1. To run each early game phase (up to, let's say 3-5 moves) through multiple AI engines and find selection that is:
- happening constantly in most of the engines
- don't have deviation in multiple rules (i.e. have stable consequence)
- aren't well known (that is, aren't well known plays described in literature)
From that probably I'd have some honeypot sequence that I could try to lure cheater out.
2. Find opponent's openings that are:
- Successful (i.e. usually winning)
- Not recommended by any AI engine whatsoever (so probably could be described as "lucky")
- Used often by opponent
...and try to get him into this exact opening seeing how it'll go.
Beyond discovery I find also immensely interesting how to deal with such knowledge. Exposing method would put it in statistical argument of outcome vs chance and would be super easy to walk around in the future. Proving it would true would be almost impossible as well. In the end the only route would be to push hard (exactly as Carlsen did) with a method defendable enough that if there's push-back it can be exposed to save oneself from disgrace.
I doubt we'll ever see resolution, but I find all of it amazing nonetheless.
- Bakary 4y agoThe most convincing theory around this drama is that Magnus employed just such a honeypot by playing an obscure move Niemann responded perfectly to but was unable to later explain.
- derbOac 4y agoThis has been on my mind in reading about this. It would explain a lot.
- Elhana 4y agoOn the other hand, if Niemann did exactly the same and researched less-known moves, he'd know how to play against them too. That won't actually prove he is cheating at that game. Just the fact that he analyzed them earlier. You'd need a significant number of such honeypot "incidents" to properly accuse someone of cheating.
- xlii 4y agoThat'd be an interesting exercise to figure out how big sample should be and how unlikely the moves would be. This is something for chess analysts I suppose. I believe that there will never be decisive proof of Niemann cheating. But on the other hand chess is a game of strategy which seems to seep out of the playing board this time.
- diehunde 4y agoI think he just didn't believe he could play that well considering his level
- Overtonwindow 4y agoIs it possible that Carlsen himself is cheating, and the reason he's angry is because he's cheating, and still gets beat, so the other guy MUST be cheating?
- Bakary 4y agoIt's not impossible, technically. But it would contradict more than a decade of behavior and performance along with having no circumstantial or hard evidence to back it up.
- Overtonwindow 4y agoThat’s a good point, and I agree, I was just throwing out this weird devils advocate argument that came to me. I think about cycling, and other events in sports where drugs are involved. People claim they are not on drugs, they go on a crusade against the cheaters, only to be found later to be cheaters themselves.