4 ms·

While I share the general concern about climate change, talk of population collapse in South Asia is all too familiar to be taken seriously at face value. In fa

by sn41 4y ago

While I share the general concern about climate change, talk of population collapse in South Asia is all too familiar to be taken seriously at face value. In fact: life in South Asia has slowly been improving since Independence. Before independence, famines involving millions of deaths were common [1]. The one called "Chalisa Akaal" was particularly devastating. [2] In the 75 years since independence from Britain, IIRC there has been only one major famine in either India, Bangladesh and Pakistan taken together, the 1970 famine in Bangladesh just prior to the 1971 war. Green revolution has been a great boon. Doom and gloom about an overpopulated South Asia is common. On the other hand, perhaps the reason why the region is so populated is that it has historically been very conducive for human habitation even using very low technology. Where I believe most predictions have got it wrong is the ability of humans to adapt. I hope with John McCarthy, that science and sense will be able to overcome such dire crises. [3] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_India [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalisa_famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalisa_famine [3] http://jmc.stanford.edu/commentary/progress/index.html http://jmc.stanford.edu/commentary/progress/index.html

rayiner 4y ago
Life in Bangladesh has completely transformed even since I lived there in the mid 1980s. My dad laments that it’s too crowded and kids in his village don’t know what it’s like to take a boat to school anymore during monsoon, but progress has happened rapidly. Energy is the critical thing. We don’t have space for wind mills and solar panels. I’d love to see Pan-Asian cooperation on nuclear. Regrettably, I think all that will have to happen through alignment with China. The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” not “more energy, more infrastructure, more production.”
- foobarian 4y ago
  > and their solution is “less brown people,” not “more energy, more infrastructure, more production.” Sadly (or ironically?) the solution might be "less people" through "more energy infrastructure and production." I.e. development for whatever reason seems to drive population growth down, to the point where most of the west is losing population.
  - ElevenLathe 4y ago
    This is the absolute best-case scenario for humanity: advancing technology allows us to develop the poor parts of the world with green energy and stabilize population voluntarily rather than through a series of apocalyptic wars and famines. As far as nature goes, the market will clear one way or another (unless we destroy the biosphere entirely and turn Earth into Venus).
- prottog 4y ago
  > The west is captured by Malthusian thinking It's been almost 200 years since Malthus's passing and the human population has octupled since then, so you'd think that most people would give him less credence, but you're right those ideas seem more popular than ever. I keep on repeating on this forum that the way out is through, with better technology allowing us to consume more energy per capita, not less. There is no freezing or turning back the clock without the suffering of billions.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
    Read A Farewell to Alms. Malthus's thinking was objectively correct up to the time of writing. He just made & recorded the observations at almost exactly the wrong time, right before the trend reversed, during the industrial revolution. I'm not claiming that we have reached a new era where - once again - growing population = worse living conditions. But there are a lot of good arguments WRT to limits on fossil fuel extraction, physical limitations on technological progress, etc... Light bulbs can't get much more efficient. Neither can electricity transmission. Energy generation still has a healthy amount to improve. Maybe there's enough progress left to be made for the population to double again. But the idea that the population could be near infinite on this planet and that would only lead to more progress and better living conditions is laughable. There's clearly some limit. My crystal ball isn't working. I don't know if we've passed it, or are even close to it...
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      There's lots of room to improve electricity transmission. Local generation is more efficient than remote generation. This is especially important in poor rural areas. Build somebody a natgas generator and they're dependent on you for fuel. Build them a nuclear plant and they're dependent on you for experts. Give them a solar panel and now they independent.
      - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
        Assuming they don't need electricity at night or when it's cloudy and they only need one solar panel's worth of electricity and they don't live in a condo where they have nowhere to put it...
- tarakat 4y ago
  > The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” Ironic then that brown people is the only group still growing in the west then: America’s white population declined for the first time [..] Meanwhile, there was significant growth among minority groups over the last decade. - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/12/us-2020-census-white-population-declines https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/12/us-2020-cens...
- enraged_camel 4y ago
  >> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” Not sure why you believe this. Antinatalist and child-free movements have exploded in popularity in the west.

by sn41 4y ago

rayiner 4y ago

Life in Bangladesh has completely transformed even since I lived there in the mid 1980s. My dad laments that it’s too crowded and kids in his village don’t know what it’s like to take a boat to school anymore during monsoon, but progress has happened rapidly. Energy is the critical thing. We don’t have space for wind mills and solar panels. I’d love to see Pan-Asian cooperation on nuclear. Regrettably, I think all that will have to happen through alignment with China. The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” not “more energy, more infrastructure, more production.”

foobarian 4y ago
> and their solution is “less brown people,” not “more energy, more infrastructure, more production.” Sadly (or ironically?) the solution might be "less people" through "more energy infrastructure and production." I.e. development for whatever reason seems to drive population growth down, to the point where most of the west is losing population.
- ElevenLathe 4y ago
  This is the absolute best-case scenario for humanity: advancing technology allows us to develop the poor parts of the world with green energy and stabilize population voluntarily rather than through a series of apocalyptic wars and famines. As far as nature goes, the market will clear one way or another (unless we destroy the biosphere entirely and turn Earth into Venus).
prottog 4y ago
> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking It's been almost 200 years since Malthus's passing and the human population has octupled since then, so you'd think that most people would give him less credence, but you're right those ideas seem more popular than ever. I keep on repeating on this forum that the way out is through, with better technology allowing us to consume more energy per capita, not less. There is no freezing or turning back the clock without the suffering of billions.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  Read A Farewell to Alms. Malthus's thinking was objectively correct up to the time of writing. He just made & recorded the observations at almost exactly the wrong time, right before the trend reversed, during the industrial revolution. I'm not claiming that we have reached a new era where - once again - growing population = worse living conditions. But there are a lot of good arguments WRT to limits on fossil fuel extraction, physical limitations on technological progress, etc... Light bulbs can't get much more efficient. Neither can electricity transmission. Energy generation still has a healthy amount to improve. Maybe there's enough progress left to be made for the population to double again. But the idea that the population could be near infinite on this planet and that would only lead to more progress and better living conditions is laughable. There's clearly some limit. My crystal ball isn't working. I don't know if we've passed it, or are even close to it...
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    There's lots of room to improve electricity transmission. Local generation is more efficient than remote generation. This is especially important in poor rural areas. Build somebody a natgas generator and they're dependent on you for fuel. Build them a nuclear plant and they're dependent on you for experts. Give them a solar panel and now they independent.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
      Assuming they don't need electricity at night or when it's cloudy and they only need one solar panel's worth of electricity and they don't live in a condo where they have nowhere to put it...
tarakat 4y ago
> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” Ironic then that brown people is the only group still growing in the west then: America’s white population declined for the first time [..] Meanwhile, there was significant growth among minority groups over the last decade. - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/12/us-2020-census-white-population-declines https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/12/us-2020-cens...
enraged_camel 4y ago
>> The west is captured by Malthusian thinking, and their solution is “less brown people,” Not sure why you believe this. Antinatalist and child-free movements have exploded in popularity in the west.