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> So if you go to a person on the street, and ask them: "are you happy to live through something like the black death, but slighly better"? and the responce is
by FeepingCreature 4y ago
> So if you go to a person on the street, and ask them: "are you happy to live through something like the black death, but slighly better"? and the responce is gonna be "yeah, that's fine. We should not take action to prevent that"
It's not on the same scale, but 7 million people have just died to a pandemic and there is certainly no universal agreement that massive restrictions were appropriate to prevent that. So while the black death probably provides an upper bound, COVID provides a lower bound. Somewhere between, people will have a breaking point - but nobody was proposing "to solve COVID we need to roll back the industrial revolution and slash world population." I think we're agreed that would have been excessive? Let's say the measures for COVID, which significantly restricted civil liberties for two years, were a hundredth of that level; well, the deaths were a hundredth of the Black Death. It's certainly not obvious to me, at least, that the remedy isn't worse than the disease (pun not intended).
> And if it induces drounght, crop failures and famine, it could kill hundreds of millions, maybe two billion - and then it would be worse
I don't know, seems a stretch. You're kind of bridging an OOM here with great ease. :) I don't think it's plausible at this point to speculate that climate change will even reduce the food production capability of the world at all. It will certainly make the equator much harder to inhabit and create massive migrations; I think that's already dire enough, honestly. To be clear, I think it should be stopped. Just not at any price. I think spending an appreciable fraction of GDP on climate change mitigation and compensation while massively stepping up renewables is reasonable, abolishing capitalism and imposing birth restrictions, for instance, is not.
It feels a bit like some people here are only interested in climate change insofar as it provides a justification for enacting their preferred policies.
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago> I don't think it's plausible at this point to speculate that climate change will even reduce the food production capability of the world at all You are creating the impression you have not read anything on the subject at all https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/climate-change-may-double-the-risk-of-breadbasket-failures https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-18/climate-c...
- FeepingCreature 4y agoI agree that it's likely for climate change to cause harvest failures in existing crop regions.