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Who would start this global conflict? US can annihilate Russia in a month (not counting time for deployment). China is in enormous financial crisis and economi

Who would start this global conflict? US can annihilate Russia in a month (not counting time for deployment). China is in enormous financial crisis and economic slowdown without proper navy to invade Taiwan, there is no way for "true" global conflict [not even close to WW1 and WW2] right now.

chiefalchemist 4y ago
Perhaps. However, history is a trainwreck of humans making bad decisions at the wrong time. 9/11 shouldn't have happened. The crash of 2007 shouldn't have happened. Covid was predicted yet we were unprepared, or at least very under-prepared. Invasion of Ukraine? Who really saw that coming. That's the thing about predicting the future...no one gets it right. Ever. Complex systems are unpredictable. We can put odds on things but "no way", in the context of history's lessons sounds naive.
- machinekob 4y ago
  Invasion of Ukraine who could knew (a lot of people). I would say most of people living in eastern Europe and folks having some interested in this part of world predict some sort of military invasion of Ukraine after 2004-2005 revolution, and after 2014 revolution it was pretty obv that Russia would do everything it can to stop Ukraine from pivoting to more western standards and closer integration with EU and Poland. Also US who knew about invasion few months before. Global pandemic is kinda once every few 100 years think so unlucky for us that happen right now. History lessons show that to global or even continental conflict you need to have blocks of equal powers (from Ancient Greece (Peloponnesian War as local but "big" conflict) till modern times and Napoleonic Wars/WW1/WW2) and there is no block that can rival US right now (maybe in 10 years if China go back on tracks and push more funds into army)
- mattbrewsbytes 4y ago
  > Invasion of Ukraine? Who really saw that coming Russia had taken Crimea a few years back and before that some other area, its kinda what they've been doing for a while along with putting in puppet governments in various "independent" nation-states on their borders. Your statement is kinda like a person in the US saying they are shocked/surprised there was a mass or school shooting. I bet there were experts in various capacities that stated "its only a matter of time before ..." regarding a foreign terrorist attack, pandemic outbreak, etc. happened.

chiefalchemist 4y ago

Perhaps. However, history is a trainwreck of humans making bad decisions at the wrong time. 9/11 shouldn't have happened. The crash of 2007 shouldn't have happened. Covid was predicted yet we were unprepared, or at least very under-prepared. Invasion of Ukraine? Who really saw that coming. That's the thing about predicting the future...no one gets it right. Ever. Complex systems are unpredictable. We can put odds on things but "no way", in the context of history's lessons sounds naive.

machinekob 4y ago
Invasion of Ukraine who could knew (a lot of people). I would say most of people living in eastern Europe and folks having some interested in this part of world predict some sort of military invasion of Ukraine after 2004-2005 revolution, and after 2014 revolution it was pretty obv that Russia would do everything it can to stop Ukraine from pivoting to more western standards and closer integration with EU and Poland. Also US who knew about invasion few months before. Global pandemic is kinda once every few 100 years think so unlucky for us that happen right now. History lessons show that to global or even continental conflict you need to have blocks of equal powers (from Ancient Greece (Peloponnesian War as local but "big" conflict) till modern times and Napoleonic Wars/WW1/WW2) and there is no block that can rival US right now (maybe in 10 years if China go back on tracks and push more funds into army)
mattbrewsbytes 4y ago
> Invasion of Ukraine? Who really saw that coming Russia had taken Crimea a few years back and before that some other area, its kinda what they've been doing for a while along with putting in puppet governments in various "independent" nation-states on their borders. Your statement is kinda like a person in the US saying they are shocked/surprised there was a mass or school shooting. I bet there were experts in various capacities that stated "its only a matter of time before ..." regarding a foreign terrorist attack, pandemic outbreak, etc. happened.