4 ms·

Would law of physics kick in ? If it takes thousands of years to produce oil/gas/coal, and months to extract and consume it... then what political solution do

by llsf 4y ago

Would law of physics kick in ? If it takes thousands of years to produce oil/gas/coal, and months to extract and consume it... then what political solution do have ? My concern is that we might hit an energy crisis (Russia/Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg). We need oil/gas/coal for everything around us (clothes, transportation, heat, cement, iron, energy). For energy we could use nuclear for baseline, and some renewable. For iron, we could use hydrogen instead of coal (see above for energy) For cement, we could electricity (see above for energy) For heat we could use electricity (and better insulation) (see above for energy) For transportation we could use electricity for ground transportation (trains, trucks, cars, light mobility) and keep the planes on oil, hydrogen, etc. For clothes... well we could use the rest of oil left. Our needs in energy are growing, and the reserve or oil/gas/coal is finite and even if there are still a lot available, it might be a long tail and so too expensive to extract. We might need to plan for a shortage (or too expensive) oil/gas/coal. Renewable is nice, but the amount of energy needed to replace oil/gas/coal is just massive, we cannot produce and install renewable fast enough. We need hundreds more nuclear reactors, just for US alone. This is likely a national security question. In that sense it is a political question based on physic emergency.

verinus 4y ago
and as far as I read nuclear fuel isn't endless either...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- llsf 4y ago
  "The fission of 1 g of uranium or plutonium per day liberates about 1 MW. This is the energy equivalent of 3 tons of coal or about 600 gallons of fuel oil per day, which when burned produces approximately 1/4 tonne of carbon dioxide." https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/14/1.html https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/14/1.html Uranium is everywhere, enriching (separate 235 from 238) is a mechanical process (no chemistry involved). "Uranium is a naturally occurring element with an average concentration of 2.8 parts per million in the Earth's crust. Traces of it occur almost everywhere. It is more abundant than gold, silver or mercury, about the same as tin and slightly less abundant than cobalt, lead or molybdenum." https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/uranium-mining-overview.aspx https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c... And its "combustion" is carbon free. Nuclear power plants works exactly like coal or gas ones. A big boiler. Water is used to "slow" the neutrons to keep the reaction going, and also use to transport the heat. Nuclear technology and engineering is quite impressive.
incrudible 4y ago
Electricity can be turned into gas. People do not need to live like US suburbanites. As fossil fuels deplete, this will happen automatically, through the price mechanism. That said, fossil fuels are nowhere near to depletion and may well last for centuries.
- dane-pgp 4y ago
  To give a recent estimate[0], here's what McKinsey (the big management consultancy) has to say: > Global fossil-fuels demand is projected to peak between 2023–2025, accounting for a dwindling share of energy use, with oil production dropping by 55 percent and gas production by 70 percent in 2050 You're right that fossil fuels won't be depleted, and they will still be burnt long after their peak, but I don't imagine fossil fuels being extracted at scale next century. [0] https://www.forestvalley.org/for-companies https://www.forestvalley.org/for-companies
- weatherlite 4y ago
  > That said, fossil fuels are nowhere near to depletion and may well last for centuries. They ARE getting more expensive (see U.S shale oil in the last decade) because the best spots are always mined first. Once gone you have to dig deeper and harder and use increasingly more complex and expensive methods to extract it. At some point you will get negative return on energy - so even if it is there it will be wasteful to extract.
  - incrudible 4y ago
    > They ARE getting more expensive Good.
weatherlite 4y ago
We can all try consuming less. I'm hoping the market will have to correct us all out of sheer shortage. E.g gas for the car, meat and flight will get too expensive for many people. At some point it will probably happen I'm just hoping we'll get there while we can still correct our future. Is meat, a car and cheap holidays worth destroying the planet and ravaging through the precious resources we have left? Very doubtful. We can use trains, eat more beans/soy and go to nearest beach/mountain where we live.

by llsf 4y ago

verinus 4y ago

and as far as I read nuclear fuel isn't endless either...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
llsf 4y ago
"The fission of 1 g of uranium or plutonium per day liberates about 1 MW. This is the energy equivalent of 3 tons of coal or about 600 gallons of fuel oil per day, which when burned produces approximately 1/4 tonne of carbon dioxide." https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/14/1.html https://www2.lbl.gov/abc/wallchart/chapters/14/1.html Uranium is everywhere, enriching (separate 235 from 238) is a mechanical process (no chemistry involved). "Uranium is a naturally occurring element with an average concentration of 2.8 parts per million in the Earth's crust. Traces of it occur almost everywhere. It is more abundant than gold, silver or mercury, about the same as tin and slightly less abundant than cobalt, lead or molybdenum." https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/uranium-mining-overview.aspx https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c... And its "combustion" is carbon free. Nuclear power plants works exactly like coal or gas ones. A big boiler. Water is used to "slow" the neutrons to keep the reaction going, and also use to transport the heat. Nuclear technology and engineering is quite impressive.

incrudible 4y ago

Electricity can be turned into gas. People do not need to live like US suburbanites. As fossil fuels deplete, this will happen automatically, through the price mechanism. That said, fossil fuels are nowhere near to depletion and may well last for centuries.

dane-pgp 4y ago
To give a recent estimate[0], here's what McKinsey (the big management consultancy) has to say: > Global fossil-fuels demand is projected to peak between 2023–2025, accounting for a dwindling share of energy use, with oil production dropping by 55 percent and gas production by 70 percent in 2050 You're right that fossil fuels won't be depleted, and they will still be burnt long after their peak, but I don't imagine fossil fuels being extracted at scale next century. [0] https://www.forestvalley.org/for-companies https://www.forestvalley.org/for-companies
weatherlite 4y ago
> That said, fossil fuels are nowhere near to depletion and may well last for centuries. They ARE getting more expensive (see U.S shale oil in the last decade) because the best spots are always mined first. Once gone you have to dig deeper and harder and use increasingly more complex and expensive methods to extract it. At some point you will get negative return on energy - so even if it is there it will be wasteful to extract.
- incrudible 4y ago
  > They ARE getting more expensive Good.

weatherlite 4y ago

We can all try consuming less. I'm hoping the market will have to correct us all out of sheer shortage. E.g gas for the car, meat and flight will get too expensive for many people. At some point it will probably happen I'm just hoping we'll get there while we can still correct our future. Is meat, a car and cheap holidays worth destroying the planet and ravaging through the precious resources we have left? Very doubtful. We can use trains, eat more beans/soy and go to nearest beach/mountain where we live.