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> Yes, because Japan has had decades of being the only country in the developed world with that distinction, while the rest of the global economy continued to g

> Yes, because Japan has had decades of being the only country in the developed world with that distinction, while the rest of the global economy continued to grow. That's not what the propagandists claimed though. > That gave it advantages and opportunities that won't exist for many countries once the developed world at large ages into mass retirement What unique advantages and opportunities that won't exist for others? This sounds familiar.

scottLobster 4y ago
For one, they could be a high-end export-driven economy, as there were lots of wealthy (by global standards) consumers. They've now built out the bureaucratic and practical infrastructure of building where they sell at scale. They also had time to test out various central bank/financial/strategic policies to figure out what worked. With the rest of the developed world (outside of the US and a few others) moving into aging demographics more-or-less all at once, export-driven economies are going to be hard-pressed as global consumption decreases in the developed world. They also won't have time to experiment. Now sure, theoretically governments could learn from Japan's successes and failures and, being forward looking, could initiate policy 5-10 years in advance to offset the worst of the impacts and... sorry I just laughed into my keyboard. It's going to be a show, people will wake up one morning, stuff will be expensive and broken, no one in power will understand why, problems will be denied for months until things break beyond the point of no return, and the solutions will be rushed, poorly directed and half-assed. See Germany's current energy woes.
- throwawaylinux 4y ago
  I don't think any of this opportunity was enabled by Japan's population demographics at all. Germany, South Korea, Hong Kong, are notable exporters of secondary and tertiary products.
  - scottLobster 4y ago
    It wasn't enabled by Japan's demographics, it was enabled by the world's demographics relative to Japan. Japan has had to deal with a mass-aging demography in a relatively friendly global environment. They've had the latitude to experiment and develop various approaches. Germany, South Korea, and others are going to hit the same problem in a much more hostile global economic environment, as most of the wealthy global consumers are going to simply disappear. At present they're woefully unprepared to deal with any of it.
    - throwawaylinux 4y ago
      I don't think so. As I said, those other countries didn't have the same relative demographics as Japan. This just sounds like a fringe theory that isn't really borne out by evidence.

scottLobster 4y ago

For one, they could be a high-end export-driven economy, as there were lots of wealthy (by global standards) consumers. They've now built out the bureaucratic and practical infrastructure of building where they sell at scale. They also had time to test out various central bank/financial/strategic policies to figure out what worked. With the rest of the developed world (outside of the US and a few others) moving into aging demographics more-or-less all at once, export-driven economies are going to be hard-pressed as global consumption decreases in the developed world. They also won't have time to experiment. Now sure, theoretically governments could learn from Japan's successes and failures and, being forward looking, could initiate policy 5-10 years in advance to offset the worst of the impacts and... sorry I just laughed into my keyboard. It's going to be a show, people will wake up one morning, stuff will be expensive and broken, no one in power will understand why, problems will be denied for months until things break beyond the point of no return, and the solutions will be rushed, poorly directed and half-assed. See Germany's current energy woes.

throwawaylinux 4y ago
I don't think any of this opportunity was enabled by Japan's population demographics at all. Germany, South Korea, Hong Kong, are notable exporters of secondary and tertiary products.
- scottLobster 4y ago
  It wasn't enabled by Japan's demographics, it was enabled by the world's demographics relative to Japan. Japan has had to deal with a mass-aging demography in a relatively friendly global environment. They've had the latitude to experiment and develop various approaches. Germany, South Korea, and others are going to hit the same problem in a much more hostile global economic environment, as most of the wealthy global consumers are going to simply disappear. At present they're woefully unprepared to deal with any of it.
  - throwawaylinux 4y ago
    I don't think so. As I said, those other countries didn't have the same relative demographics as Japan. This just sounds like a fringe theory that isn't really borne out by evidence.