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The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage b

The recent (since the 80s) history of financial ups and downs has been - savings and loan - junk bond - dot com / financial engineering (Enron) - mortgage backed securities - VC Basically, money chases outsized returns, some new thing emerges to satisfy the demand, it becomes effectively a ponzi / house of cards, it falls apart, we shift to the next thing. It's impossible to predict when and what will happen of course, it will be interesting to read retrospectively about what's happening with VC as we have with the rest: Barbarians at the gate / Den of Thieves Smartest Guys in the Room The Big Short (Bad Blood is partway there but Theranos wasnt a turning point like the others)

Apocryphon 4y ago
Margin Call takes place in 2008, but its depiction of how the investors respond to a crisis is evergreen.
- devoutsalsa 4y ago
  I love that movie. It’s my favorite financial drama. I have sympathy & contempt for nearly everyone in that movie.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Honestly, those traders kept around until the dirty work was done got the best deal. Million dollar bonus for a couple of days of work and a clear way out, I would have taken that deal in a second. Side note: Regardless of the borderline sociopathic ruthlessbes of Jeremy Irons character, I'd propably work for him as well. At least for a while. Heck, he was flown to a crisis meeting, listened to the people on the ground, understood the problem, met a decision and implemented a plan. All that in one night! Most senior managers I know would have needed a month to understand the why the underlying mathematical model had any significance.
    - nickpinkston 4y ago
      Agree 100%! Having been CEO through similar crisis situations, I really related to his character and situation in that movie. People who criticize his actions don't understand that hard decisions are always between two shitty options. There wasn't a warm-n--fuzzy way to get out of there. You can criticize their risk management strategy, and honestly we should more criticize the USG / SEC for allowing such risk to build up.
fullshark 4y ago
There's a great book to be written about SPACs, the last gasp attempt to cash out companies before the party ended.
sennraf 4y ago
Don’t forget private equity: (Private equity may become a ‘pyramid scheme’, warns Danish pension fund - paywalled) https://www.ft.com/content/f480a99c-4c7b-4208-b9dd-ef20103254b9 https://www.ft.com/content/f480a99c-4c7b-4208-b9dd-ef2010325...
MuffinFlavored 4y ago
crypto?
- enos_feedler 4y ago
  This seems logical but I always think if it was that obvious it would already happen. We don't even know if there is ONE good idea with crypto yet, but there are whole funds and firms dedicated to chasing the plethora of crypto businesses.
  - lawn 4y ago
    Well, the one good idea is using it as money. Although the adoption didn't really happen, and its difficult to earn money from crypto being used as money, so people are desperately searching for other things to do with it.
    - friendzis 4y ago
      > Well, the one good idea is using it as money The major component of crypto being distributed consensus it has absolutely no way to work with external world, therefore it can only work with blockchain-borne stuff. The only thing dreamed up yet are cryptotokens. Since blockchains have no way to interact with external world it can only be used to exchange cryptotokens between wallets - there is no way to ensure that other side of the transaction involving anything else but cryptotokens is upheld. So it CANNOT be used as money by probably any sane definition of money. Crypto scams are natural consequence of this inherent property.
    - junofan 4y ago
      Where’s capital formation headed? Dunno how durable institutional trust will be in the current regimes. Some questionable decisionmaking.
CSMastermind 4y ago
I'd argue that crypto fits that bill more than VC.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Crypto has a lot of retail suckers and speculators to pump and dump on, unlike private markets.
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    2017 crash yeah. Now way more institutional money is involved - tens of billions of dollars. https://cointelegraph.com/news/vcs-pour-14-2b-into-crypto-in-h1-2022-but-investments-now-slowing https://cointelegraph.com/news/vcs-pour-14-2b-into-crypto-in...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

Apocryphon 4y ago

Margin Call takes place in 2008, but its depiction of how the investors respond to a crisis is evergreen.

devoutsalsa 4y ago
I love that movie. It’s my favorite financial drama. I have sympathy & contempt for nearly everyone in that movie.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Honestly, those traders kept around until the dirty work was done got the best deal. Million dollar bonus for a couple of days of work and a clear way out, I would have taken that deal in a second. Side note: Regardless of the borderline sociopathic ruthlessbes of Jeremy Irons character, I'd propably work for him as well. At least for a while. Heck, he was flown to a crisis meeting, listened to the people on the ground, understood the problem, met a decision and implemented a plan. All that in one night! Most senior managers I know would have needed a month to understand the why the underlying mathematical model had any significance.
  - nickpinkston 4y ago
    Agree 100%! Having been CEO through similar crisis situations, I really related to his character and situation in that movie. People who criticize his actions don't understand that hard decisions are always between two shitty options. There wasn't a warm-n--fuzzy way to get out of there. You can criticize their risk management strategy, and honestly we should more criticize the USG / SEC for allowing such risk to build up.

fullshark 4y ago

There's a great book to be written about SPACs, the last gasp attempt to cash out companies before the party ended.

sennraf 4y ago

Don’t forget private equity: (Private equity may become a ‘pyramid scheme’, warns Danish pension fund - paywalled) https://www.ft.com/content/f480a99c-4c7b-4208-b9dd-ef20103254b9 https://www.ft.com/content/f480a99c-4c7b-4208-b9dd-ef2010325...

MuffinFlavored 4y ago

crypto?

enos_feedler 4y ago
This seems logical but I always think if it was that obvious it would already happen. We don't even know if there is ONE good idea with crypto yet, but there are whole funds and firms dedicated to chasing the plethora of crypto businesses.
- lawn 4y ago
  Well, the one good idea is using it as money. Although the adoption didn't really happen, and its difficult to earn money from crypto being used as money, so people are desperately searching for other things to do with it.
  - friendzis 4y ago
    > Well, the one good idea is using it as money The major component of crypto being distributed consensus it has absolutely no way to work with external world, therefore it can only work with blockchain-borne stuff. The only thing dreamed up yet are cryptotokens. Since blockchains have no way to interact with external world it can only be used to exchange cryptotokens between wallets - there is no way to ensure that other side of the transaction involving anything else but cryptotokens is upheld. So it CANNOT be used as money by probably any sane definition of money. Crypto scams are natural consequence of this inherent property.
  - junofan 4y ago
    Where’s capital formation headed? Dunno how durable institutional trust will be in the current regimes. Some questionable decisionmaking.

CSMastermind 4y ago

I'd argue that crypto fits that bill more than VC.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
Crypto has a lot of retail suckers and speculators to pump and dump on, unlike private markets.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  2017 crash yeah. Now way more institutional money is involved - tens of billions of dollars. https://cointelegraph.com/news/vcs-pour-14-2b-into-crypto-in-h1-2022-but-investments-now-slowing https://cointelegraph.com/news/vcs-pour-14-2b-into-crypto-in...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]