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So here's what's happening for anyone who wants more context. The US Treasury issues debt (called Treasuries) to fund US government operations. The US Treasur
by RC_ITR 4y ago
So here's what's happening for anyone who wants more context.
The US Treasury issues debt (called Treasuries) to fund US government operations. The US Treasury is a 'traditional' part of the US government and its debt is considered as close to 'risk-free' as you can get today (some combination of the US government's ability to indefinitely tax the largest/most advanced economy in the world + the US military are the two things cited as to why this is true).
The US Fed is a less traditional part of the US Government. It is technically a bank that the government owns, but voters have no direct means of influencing policy.
Previously, The Fed would 'manage' the behavior of private banks by either controlling the money supply (an increasingly abstract concept in the age of digital money) or adjusting the super short-term interest rate at which it loans money to banks who need it in a pinch (increasingly less relevant for a variety of factors). They actually transacted very little with the Treasury in this period.
In 2008, The Fed found that neither of their tried and true tools was good enough to get private banks to lend more money than they were doing at the time (you'll hear a lot of hand-wringing about the 0 lower bound of interest rates, despite some interesting outcomes from negative interest rates in other countries). In order to do something, the Fed decided to just straight up buy US Treasuries (something Japan had pioneered before; they also buy Mortgage-backed Securities, but don't worry about that right now).
This decision (known as Quantitative Easing because economists love to pretend like they're scientists) has the net effect of making the Treasuries more expensive, and their interest rates lower. This is because Treasuries are sold with a fixed coupon rate (i.e. I'll give the owner of this Treasury $5/month) and a floating face value (i.e. I'll pay a variable amount of money depending on current risk conditions to own the Treasury that pays me $5/month risk-fee). When the risk-free interest rate is low, people tend to look to riskier places to generate yield, and therefore lend money more liberally.
This change is important because it went from the Fed influencing a relatively esoteric, bank-only interest rate to the Fed controlling the most important interest rate in the world (it's one of the most common baselines used for determining other interest rates).
Long story short, The Fed wants that interest rate to go back up, so what are they doing? They are no longer buying new Treasuries to replace their existing Treasuries that reach maturity, to the tune of $90bn per month
Is that removing liquidity? Not really, it's just decreasing the active injection of liquidity that the Fed has been doing for the past 15 years.
Does the nominal amount of money on the Fed's balance sheet matter/should we strive to bring it to $0? Unclear - what does it even mean for the US government to own its own debt? As long as markets don't care (they seem to not care right now out of convenience) then it's all fine, I guess?
Will the Fed ever actively sell its Treasury holdings? Probably not, because they are happy with the tense equilibrium I mentioned above and they don't want to risk breaking that.
What's the best KPI to watch? As long as new Treasuries sell (at auction) at around the Fed's desired interest rate, this is a non-problem and we can sort of ignore it. As soon as the Treasury market breaks (A lot of varying opinions here), then this is the world's biggest problem ever and we will look back at how foolish we were (just unclear if that will ever happen).
- shuntress 4y agoThanks. This is actually really helpful. Obviously the US economy doesn't work like an individual's economy (as in, you can't just spend less than you earn and be OK) but it's really difficult to understand what the complications actually are and posts like this help a lot.
- rodionos 4y agoOnce the Fed funds rate gets closer to 5%, you'll see more pushback from politicians and media. What does the Fed do in this situation if it needs to keep tightening? It may choose to switch to smaller rate changes, or even go flat, and at the same time embark on Treasury sales, or at least, rebalancing along the curve. So either way, not a good time to be in bonds.
- RC_ITR 4y agoHere's what's weird. Believe it or not, the Fed Funds Rate lags 10Y Treasuries and rarely goes above it [0]. I would even go as far to argue that's it's mainly a potemkin policy tool at this point, since our economy is so exposed to 10Y Treasuries, which have completely unrelated pricing dynamics. So in practical terms, if there is political pressure to lower the 10Y, The Fed will probably cut Fed Funds (doing nothing, hopefully dropping it as a policy tool going forward) and then everyone will kind of realize QE is the only current policy tool that actually works. But then what, people will be calling for more QE to make mortgage rates drop? I mean fine, but it does speed up the 'when does the market question the concept of the Fed owning the Treasury's debt' problem. [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TXsO https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TXsO
- sheepybloke 4y ago> Is that removing liquidity? Not really, it's just decreasing the active injection of liquidity that the Fed has been doing for the past 15 years. I like this line a lot because it shows that while we like to blame inflation and some of the issues we're having on the Fed's work in 2020, when in reality we have to go back to the Great Recession to understand the full impact of what's been going on. They've been trying to keep the markets happy for 15 years by keeping interest rates low and so, never reverted some of the policies that would have helped when COVID hit the economy. So, they doubled down. Now, the chickens have come to roost and they need to reel back, and hopefully, the markets won't get spooked and it will all be good, as you say.