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The less Russia has to lose the more I'm concerned about a potential nuclear war. Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia s

The less Russia has to lose the more I'm concerned about a potential nuclear war. Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space. The tail risk is simply too great.

hef19898 4y ago
Why would we do that, exactly? Western Europe lived through the constant threatbof a nuclear war all the way to the end of the 80s, so that is nothing new. Also, MAD applies, there are two Western European countries with a full nuclear triad.
- cestith 4y ago
  If the nuclear weapons come out, the US would at least seriously consider retaliatory strikes as well. If NATO countries are attacked, the US is treaty-bound to fight alongside them, too.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  Indeed. And prevailing winds on the European continent blow into Russia from the west. Beyond the reality of instant and powerful retalation, dropping nuclear weapons on Berlin or Kyiv or Warsaw is a tad suicidal from that POV alone. And even the use of a small scale "tactical" nuke inside Ukrainian territory would essentially force NATO into committing its own forces inside Ukraine. It would be too far beyond the pale. I don't think Putin will take this gamble. The whole world would lose, but Russia would lose even more.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Back the day, before the Urkaine invasion, I thought of Putin as a pu0et player and calculated risk taker, but one that knew his limits and had a keen risk calculation. The he non-surprise invaded Ukraine and botched it horribly. Seems somewhere during Covid he got on the crazy train to his own universe of madness... I totally think Putin is insane enough by now to order a tactical nuclear strike. I also think, for now, the Russian military will act by then and "remove" him from power. Or not, because who knows how those things play out in real life.
    - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
      I think the kleptocracy in Russia feels cornered and vulnerable. They are entirely dependent on a) the subservience of their own population and on b) high energy prices. Too many times in the last 10 years they have felt the squeeze on both. And so they're lashing out with a brutal mixture of old-style colonial imperialism and jingoistic nationalism -- "why should you get an empire if we don't?" Hence Lavrov constantly crowing about the hypocrisy of "the west." It's not that they think what the US empire has done is immoral. It's that they (and by they I don't mean the Russian people, but instead a select cadre at the top) want the same thing for themselves. The irony is there was no singular unified west until Russia invaded Ukraine. Out of that conflict, they have inadvertently forged a much more united western opposition to them. I hated the whole concept of NATO until Russia invaded Ukraine. So yes, I agree, think Putin overplayed his hand in a clumsy way. But he may have had no other choice. The parallels to WWI are strong.
      - PontifexMinimus 4y ago
        > Hence Lavrov constantly crowing about the hypocrisy of "the west." It's not that they think what the US empire has done is immoral. It's that they (and by they I don't mean the Russian people, but instead a select cadre at the top) want the same thing for themselves. Yes. What Lavrov doesn't understand is that the West isn't an empire, it's a series of states with similar cultures and political and economic systems, that voluntarily choose to work together. But Russia doesn't seem to realise that there are other ways of getting people to do what you want than brutality and threats.
        diimdeep 4y ago
        Please watch Sergey Lavrov's Address to the UN General Assembly [1] > What Lavrov doesn't understand is that the West isn't an empire series of states with similar cultures and political and economic systems, that voluntarily choose to work together. But Russia doesn't seem to realise that there are other ways of getting people to do what you want than brutality and threats. > brutality and threats Brutality and threats is what U.S. sanctions and U.S. national security strategy are. [1] https://youtu.be/ADhvhsbAXqo https://youtu.be/ADhvhsbAXqo
  - downvotetruth 4y ago
    The die was cast at the start of the war. Mobilization is to deconcentrate the effects of bombardment. Estimate first tactical use early next year.
saiya-jin 4y ago
Negotiate what? Giving up part of Ukraine? Well in 3-4 years same situation will be in Baltic states. And maybe not so easily winnable, since even russian army learn from their failures to some extent. Give up Poland, Slovakia, hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and so on? You are talking about mobster who understands only strength and rule of stronger, any concept of morality, fairness, rule of law etc. is meaningless. At this point, he considers large parts or whole Europe should be under his dictatorship, and so does parts of middle east. Well we Europeans say NO (and much more). Waving nuclear threat won't change our stance since what goes around comes around, if he goes in others go in and all was for much less than nothing. Fighting for greater Russia will lose any meaning since there won't be any to talk about anymore. Russia has so much more to lose, it hasn't even begun losing properly.
arinlen 4y ago
> Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space. Western Europe already did that in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. How did that danegeld went?
radu_floricica 4y ago
There's a very practical reason for the "do not negotiate with terrorists" mantra. Not because it's good or noble, but because negotiating simply kills much more people in the long run, probably orders of magnitude more. The west did exactly what you said the last two times Russia took a bite out of Ukraine, and now we're in this mess, with millions involved and nuclear war on the table. I fear to think where we'd be with another round or two of passing the buck.
PontifexMinimus 4y ago
> Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space Every time you give in to Russian threats and aggression, you get more Russian threats and aggression. The West should tell Russia, firmly and directly, that any use of nukes by Russia will result in the same on Russia, and advise the Russian armed forces not to obey any order that would amount to national suicide.

hef19898 4y ago

Why would we do that, exactly? Western Europe lived through the constant threatbof a nuclear war all the way to the end of the 80s, so that is nothing new. Also, MAD applies, there are two Western European countries with a full nuclear triad.

cestith 4y ago
If the nuclear weapons come out, the US would at least seriously consider retaliatory strikes as well. If NATO countries are attacked, the US is treaty-bound to fight alongside them, too.
cmrdporcupine 4y ago
Indeed. And prevailing winds on the European continent blow into Russia from the west. Beyond the reality of instant and powerful retalation, dropping nuclear weapons on Berlin or Kyiv or Warsaw is a tad suicidal from that POV alone. And even the use of a small scale "tactical" nuke inside Ukrainian territory would essentially force NATO into committing its own forces inside Ukraine. It would be too far beyond the pale. I don't think Putin will take this gamble. The whole world would lose, but Russia would lose even more.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Back the day, before the Urkaine invasion, I thought of Putin as a pu0et player and calculated risk taker, but one that knew his limits and had a keen risk calculation. The he non-surprise invaded Ukraine and botched it horribly. Seems somewhere during Covid he got on the crazy train to his own universe of madness... I totally think Putin is insane enough by now to order a tactical nuclear strike. I also think, for now, the Russian military will act by then and "remove" him from power. Or not, because who knows how those things play out in real life.
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    I think the kleptocracy in Russia feels cornered and vulnerable. They are entirely dependent on a) the subservience of their own population and on b) high energy prices. Too many times in the last 10 years they have felt the squeeze on both. And so they're lashing out with a brutal mixture of old-style colonial imperialism and jingoistic nationalism -- "why should you get an empire if we don't?" Hence Lavrov constantly crowing about the hypocrisy of "the west." It's not that they think what the US empire has done is immoral. It's that they (and by they I don't mean the Russian people, but instead a select cadre at the top) want the same thing for themselves. The irony is there was no singular unified west until Russia invaded Ukraine. Out of that conflict, they have inadvertently forged a much more united western opposition to them. I hated the whole concept of NATO until Russia invaded Ukraine. So yes, I agree, think Putin overplayed his hand in a clumsy way. But he may have had no other choice. The parallels to WWI are strong.
    - PontifexMinimus 4y ago
      > Hence Lavrov constantly crowing about the hypocrisy of "the west." It's not that they think what the US empire has done is immoral. It's that they (and by they I don't mean the Russian people, but instead a select cadre at the top) want the same thing for themselves. Yes. What Lavrov doesn't understand is that the West isn't an empire, it's a series of states with similar cultures and political and economic systems, that voluntarily choose to work together. But Russia doesn't seem to realise that there are other ways of getting people to do what you want than brutality and threats.
      - diimdeep 4y ago
        Please watch Sergey Lavrov's Address to the UN General Assembly [1] > What Lavrov doesn't understand is that the West isn't an empire series of states with similar cultures and political and economic systems, that voluntarily choose to work together. But Russia doesn't seem to realise that there are other ways of getting people to do what you want than brutality and threats. > brutality and threats Brutality and threats is what U.S. sanctions and U.S. national security strategy are. [1] https://youtu.be/ADhvhsbAXqo https://youtu.be/ADhvhsbAXqo
- downvotetruth 4y ago
  The die was cast at the start of the war. Mobilization is to deconcentrate the effects of bombardment. Estimate first tactical use early next year.

saiya-jin 4y ago

Negotiate what? Giving up part of Ukraine? Well in 3-4 years same situation will be in Baltic states. And maybe not so easily winnable, since even russian army learn from their failures to some extent. Give up Poland, Slovakia, hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and so on? You are talking about mobster who understands only strength and rule of stronger, any concept of morality, fairness, rule of law etc. is meaningless. At this point, he considers large parts or whole Europe should be under his dictatorship, and so does parts of middle east. Well we Europeans say NO (and much more). Waving nuclear threat won't change our stance since what goes around comes around, if he goes in others go in and all was for much less than nothing. Fighting for greater Russia will lose any meaning since there won't be any to talk about anymore. Russia has so much more to lose, it hasn't even begun losing properly.

arinlen 4y ago

> Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space. Western Europe already did that in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. How did that danegeld went?

radu_floricica 4y ago

There's a very practical reason for the "do not negotiate with terrorists" mantra. Not because it's good or noble, but because negotiating simply kills much more people in the long run, probably orders of magnitude more. The west did exactly what you said the last two times Russia took a bite out of Ukraine, and now we're in this mess, with millions involved and nuclear war on the table. I fear to think where we'd be with another round or two of passing the buck.

PontifexMinimus 4y ago

> Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space Every time you give in to Russian threats and aggression, you get more Russian threats and aggression. The West should tell Russia, firmly and directly, that any use of nukes by Russia will result in the same on Russia, and advise the Russian armed forces not to obey any order that would amount to national suicide.