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China could probably just take Vladivostok right now. Less risky than Taiwan.

by nwatson 4y ago

rr888 4y ago
They could take the whole of Siberia and most countries would help.
- layer8 4y ago
  Japan wouldn’t.
hollerith 4y ago
(According to Peter Zeihan) Russia has told China that they would nuke them if they tried to seize any Russian territory.
- alexvoda 4y ago
  Which is precisely why it is extremely perilous for Russia to use nukes in Ukraine. If Russia breaks the nuclear taboo, all other countries can retaliate nuclearly against Russia. At that point China invading Russia becomes an advantageous action for China.
- nosianu 4y ago
  But they are telling that to everyone. I'm not making a joke. Even back in April a Russian State Duma member made a radio poll if they should nuke Baku. That was after the first skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia back then, or it may have been March. I don't remember how many but the number of people who asks for their neighbor's capital to be nuked was at least a third of the callers. So threatening to nuke somebody is completely routine for Russian government and as it seems for not insignificant parts of the angry population too. EDIT Here's an article about it: https://eurasianet.org/russian-mp-threatens-to-nuke-azerbaijan https://eurasianet.org/russian-mp-threatens-to-nuke-azerbaij... I have to add that "Delyagin’s comments were swiftly condemned by senior Russian officials" - but as I said, making the threats itself is routine even for people in government positions. At this point it's become rather meaningless to take too much notice of such frequent occurrences. Even Putin cannot help himself alluding to nukes, so it's not like you could point to certain people in particular that would be more worth listening to. In the end, does it matter? If it was possible that threatening nukes gets you whatever you want - and what Russia wants right now is really big and bad - then they could just go and do whatever afterwards. I think the only logical conclusion is that one has to ignore the threats and act as if it's only used as political and propaganda weapon. The possibility that someone will do much more has always been there, but never has it made the West back down in whatever fight it came up in, despite repeated close calls. Right now the losses of giving in would be much higher and longer lasting than in many of the previous instances. I doubt even the Cuban missile crisis was as big a deal as giving Ukraine to Russia would be. Ukraine has industry and resources in large amounts, and people, and it would be a huge boost to Russia's strength to control it all. Whether they can after hat they did is another question, but lets not underestimate the power of a brutal police state. At the very least they will spread tons and tons of misery, more and much longer than they already do, and they will have significantly more control over Europe.
  - vkou 4y ago
    If Fox news helds a viewer call-in poll on whether or not we should glass Iran, they could probably get at least a 30% positive response rate. It would tell me a lot about how successful pro-war propaganda is among it's viewership, but very little about what is likely to be done by the department of state.
    - alexvoda 4y ago
      What abou if that Fox news poll is organised by a senator? It sends a different message when officials do it.
- hef19898 4y ago
  That's some top notch intel Zeihan has there, intel I didn't hear about elsewhere.
rdtwo 4y ago
They already took it. You just didn’t notice and they don’t advertise. There are more Chinese then Russians in that territory

China could probably just take Vladivostok right now. Less risky than Taiwan.

rr888 4y ago

They could take the whole of Siberia and most countries would help.

layer8 4y ago
Japan wouldn’t.

hollerith 4y ago

(According to Peter Zeihan) Russia has told China that they would nuke them if they tried to seize any Russian territory.

alexvoda 4y ago
Which is precisely why it is extremely perilous for Russia to use nukes in Ukraine. If Russia breaks the nuclear taboo, all other countries can retaliate nuclearly against Russia. At that point China invading Russia becomes an advantageous action for China.
nosianu 4y ago
But they are telling that to everyone. I'm not making a joke. Even back in April a Russian State Duma member made a radio poll if they should nuke Baku. That was after the first skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia back then, or it may have been March. I don't remember how many but the number of people who asks for their neighbor's capital to be nuked was at least a third of the callers. So threatening to nuke somebody is completely routine for Russian government and as it seems for not insignificant parts of the angry population too. EDIT Here's an article about it: https://eurasianet.org/russian-mp-threatens-to-nuke-azerbaijan https://eurasianet.org/russian-mp-threatens-to-nuke-azerbaij... I have to add that "Delyagin’s comments were swiftly condemned by senior Russian officials" - but as I said, making the threats itself is routine even for people in government positions. At this point it's become rather meaningless to take too much notice of such frequent occurrences. Even Putin cannot help himself alluding to nukes, so it's not like you could point to certain people in particular that would be more worth listening to. In the end, does it matter? If it was possible that threatening nukes gets you whatever you want - and what Russia wants right now is really big and bad - then they could just go and do whatever afterwards. I think the only logical conclusion is that one has to ignore the threats and act as if it's only used as political and propaganda weapon. The possibility that someone will do much more has always been there, but never has it made the West back down in whatever fight it came up in, despite repeated close calls. Right now the losses of giving in would be much higher and longer lasting than in many of the previous instances. I doubt even the Cuban missile crisis was as big a deal as giving Ukraine to Russia would be. Ukraine has industry and resources in large amounts, and people, and it would be a huge boost to Russia's strength to control it all. Whether they can after hat they did is another question, but lets not underestimate the power of a brutal police state. At the very least they will spread tons and tons of misery, more and much longer than they already do, and they will have significantly more control over Europe.
- vkou 4y ago
  If Fox news helds a viewer call-in poll on whether or not we should glass Iran, they could probably get at least a 30% positive response rate. It would tell me a lot about how successful pro-war propaganda is among it's viewership, but very little about what is likely to be done by the department of state.
  - alexvoda 4y ago
    What abou if that Fox news poll is organised by a senator? It sends a different message when officials do it.
hef19898 4y ago
That's some top notch intel Zeihan has there, intel I didn't hear about elsewhere.

rdtwo 4y ago

They already took it. You just didn’t notice and they don’t advertise. There are more Chinese then Russians in that territory