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So full mobilization is coming. This insanity is about to reach another level. I bet these guys will be sent to front lines without proper winter equipment (bec

by lnsru 4y ago

So full mobilization is coming. This insanity is about to reach another level. I bet these guys will be sent to front lines without proper winter equipment (because it was stolen by corrupt officials). The autumn will come and they will freeze in some woods fighting for nothing to death. As a dad I would do everything to keep my kids alive.

systemvoltage 4y ago
Zeihan update on the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q
ledak 4y ago
It's already full. Despite Putin's statements about partial mobilization, there are no restrictions in the decree itself.
tomjen3 4y ago
I good number of them will also rape and murder Ukrainians. I won't say you shouldn't be feeling for the Russians, but maybe at least feel as much for the Ukrainian victims?
sharken 4y ago
As a dad that is the responsible thing to do. To make matters worse, the new recruits will get mediocre training compared to their Ukrainian counterpart. Relevant articles: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-recruits-to-fight-in-ukraine-after-just-days-of-training-a78314 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-... https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915?t=k1xUozWlf3rjlnewj81WKQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915?...
hintymad 4y ago
Russian has been having logistic problems to supply their troop of 200K men. I was wondering how they could supply a fully mobilized troop. 200K at a time?
- twawaaay 4y ago
  Russian actually had a problem with too much hardware and not enough people (let's overlook for a moment that most of that hardware is soviet-era, badly maintained, incomplete and low quality). Why do you think so much hardware was captured by Ukrainians? Because there just wasn't enough people to drive it all back when they retreated. Russian tactics suffers because they are sending tanks without infantry. The tanks are meant to support troops to achieve results, not be standalone solution. Now, the reason I think the mobilisation will not help is actually different. I think somebody summed it up pretty well: "$50M piece of artillery driven by an 18yo". There is already not enough experienced soldiers and now they will be diluted with even more that have no idea what they are doing. It will also put a clock on whatever Putin is trying to do. Now that this is done, he will absolutely have to show results or public opinion will start deteriorating very quickly.
  - PaulHoule 4y ago
    I've seen some Ukrainian drone footage of good combined arms tactics by the Russians but it is by no means consistent.
  - layer8 4y ago
    > There is already not enough experienced soldiers and now they will be diluted with even more that have no idea what they are doing. Just as a caveat, note that the provisions of the current partial mobilization explicitly exclude students and conscripts and is for 300K “reservists who have previously served in the Russian army and have combat experience or specialised military skills”. So, I don’t think the mental image of fresh recruits who have no idea what they are doing is necessarily accurate.
    - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
      > combat experience The only real war Russian army fougt ended 22 years ago, and it was a civil war against poorly equipped guerilla. You have to roll back 20 more years to find a full-fleged invasion of a neighbouring country by the Soviet Union.
  - 4y ago
marianatom 4y ago
As a parent and someone who have acquaintances in China, I am encouraging many of my Chinese friends to get their kids out of the country right now, and not wait for Xi Jing Ping to declare himself emperor in October and preparing for war against Taiwan in the next 5 years. So their kids aren't ship fodders when China mobilize their citizens to get on ships that will be sank quickly and swiftly by US, Japanese and NATO navies. That said, there's already a huge migration for many Chinese citizens, especially those from Shanghai, to Singapore and Malaysia this year, since now it's super hard to emigrate to US or Australia or Canada. The rich do see the writing on the wall. or rather, the many buses to the covid concentration camps.
- vkou 4y ago
  Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions. What do you mean? Sure it has a large population, but it's also a nation of only children.
    - vkou 4y ago
      For the same reason that China did not need conscription when it fought the Korean war. It will have no problem recruiting enough volunteers, just like the US had no problem recruiting enough volunteers post-Vietnam. And because any conflict its likely to fight will not be one across a two-thousand kilometer front that physically requires millions of people sitting in trenches. It's not 1943 or 1917 anymore.
      - tablespoon 4y ago
        >>> Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions. >> What do you mean? Sure it has a large population, but it's also a nation of only children. > For the same reason that China did not need conscription when it fought the Korean war. Your kind of ignoring the point. During the Korean War, China didn't have the one-child policy and families were big. The US never had such a policy.
62951413 4y ago
Technically, may be not yet. I work with a developer from Ukraine whose parents are not that old. His father cannot come visit him because he is not 60 yet. But he hasn't been drafted either. In all fairness, the Russian people had * a chance to stop the KGB in 2000, possibly in 2004 * at least fifteen years to get another passport in a great environment before 2014 * an opportunity to oppose the war in 2014 when that didn't mean getting fired and likely jailed * another 5 years under more challenging but still workable circumstances to run away * half of 2022 for really desperate actions At this point those still in the country have nobody else to blame for their situation unfortunately. The scale of the tragedy for the Eastern Slavs is reaching truly historical proportions. The 21st century was not supposed to be like that and I don't really want to know what's next.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  > * at least fifteen years to get another passport in a great environment before 2014 Getting another passport is really difficult and expensive. My family emigrated 16 years ago and I still can't get one. In my entire family only one of us succeesed.
  - saiya-jin 4y ago
    Hardest country to emigrate to in Europe is most probably Switzerland (barring maybe some tiny 'states' with obscure rules). There you can apply for citizenship after 10 years of continuous habitation (which means work at least majority of the time), and you need to pass some pretty basic language and overall knowledge test. I know quite a few Russians here, who wanted to get passport has it, its just about strong enough will and consistency. But that's something very few have, ie consistently take language courses for a year or two, learn culture, history, actually integrate into local society and not just stick around the people from same speaking country all the time. If you have no good expertise, work hard on getting one, god damn there are countless programmes in both EU and Switzerland to become an expert in something basically for free. It may not be a CEO position but it will be a well paid honest job. Sorry but every single time I've met people complaining about this, they really, really slacked on above and just kept dreaming about superb chances for free, which obviously never came. This may not be true about other continents, no experience there. But commenter you respond to is 100% correct for Europe.
Silverback_VII 4y ago
The less Russia has to lose the more I'm concerned about a potential nuclear war. Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space. The tail risk is simply too great.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Why would we do that, exactly? Western Europe lived through the constant threatbof a nuclear war all the way to the end of the 80s, so that is nothing new. Also, MAD applies, there are two Western European countries with a full nuclear triad.
  - cestith 4y ago
    If the nuclear weapons come out, the US would at least seriously consider retaliatory strikes as well. If NATO countries are attacked, the US is treaty-bound to fight alongside them, too.
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    Indeed. And prevailing winds on the European continent blow into Russia from the west. Beyond the reality of instant and powerful retalation, dropping nuclear weapons on Berlin or Kyiv or Warsaw is a tad suicidal from that POV alone. And even the use of a small scale "tactical" nuke inside Ukrainian territory would essentially force NATO into committing its own forces inside Ukraine. It would be too far beyond the pale. I don't think Putin will take this gamble. The whole world would lose, but Russia would lose even more.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      Back the day, before the Urkaine invasion, I thought of Putin as a pu0et player and calculated risk taker, but one that knew his limits and had a keen risk calculation. The he non-surprise invaded Ukraine and botched it horribly. Seems somewhere during Covid he got on the crazy train to his own universe of madness... I totally think Putin is insane enough by now to order a tactical nuclear strike. I also think, for now, the Russian military will act by then and "remove" him from power. Or not, because who knows how those things play out in real life.
Markoff 4y ago
if they follow the Russian law they can opt for civillian 2 years service for minimum pay without weapons, so it's your option - better paid meatgrinder and crappy safe work, there is also option to get jailed up to 10 years if the prison will last that long
- maxgashkov 4y ago
  'Opt out' is not as easy as you make it sound, this is based on a particular military commissioner discretion and they are heavily incentivized not to allow it. There is an option to sue, if you have proper connections, enough money etc. etc.

by lnsru 4y ago

systemvoltage 4y ago

Zeihan update on the situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt6sfPf1Z_Q

ledak 4y ago

It's already full. Despite Putin's statements about partial mobilization, there are no restrictions in the decree itself.

tomjen3 4y ago

I good number of them will also rape and murder Ukrainians. I won't say you shouldn't be feeling for the Russians, but maybe at least feel as much for the Ukrainian victims?

sharken 4y ago

As a dad that is the responsible thing to do. To make matters worse, the new recruits will get mediocre training compared to their Ukrainian counterpart. Relevant articles: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-recruits-to-fight-in-ukraine-after-just-days-of-training-a78314 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-... https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915?t=k1xUozWlf3rjlnewj81WKQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915?...

hintymad 4y ago

Russian has been having logistic problems to supply their troop of 200K men. I was wondering how they could supply a fully mobilized troop. 200K at a time?

twawaaay 4y ago
Russian actually had a problem with too much hardware and not enough people (let's overlook for a moment that most of that hardware is soviet-era, badly maintained, incomplete and low quality). Why do you think so much hardware was captured by Ukrainians? Because there just wasn't enough people to drive it all back when they retreated. Russian tactics suffers because they are sending tanks without infantry. The tanks are meant to support troops to achieve results, not be standalone solution. Now, the reason I think the mobilisation will not help is actually different. I think somebody summed it up pretty well: "$50M piece of artillery driven by an 18yo". There is already not enough experienced soldiers and now they will be diluted with even more that have no idea what they are doing. It will also put a clock on whatever Putin is trying to do. Now that this is done, he will absolutely have to show results or public opinion will start deteriorating very quickly.
- PaulHoule 4y ago
  I've seen some Ukrainian drone footage of good combined arms tactics by the Russians but it is by no means consistent.
- layer8 4y ago
  > There is already not enough experienced soldiers and now they will be diluted with even more that have no idea what they are doing. Just as a caveat, note that the provisions of the current partial mobilization explicitly exclude students and conscripts and is for 300K “reservists who have previously served in the Russian army and have combat experience or specialised military skills”. So, I don’t think the mental image of fresh recruits who have no idea what they are doing is necessarily accurate.
  - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
    > combat experience The only real war Russian army fougt ended 22 years ago, and it was a civil war against poorly equipped guerilla. You have to roll back 20 more years to find a full-fleged invasion of a neighbouring country by the Soviet Union.
- 4y ago

marianatom 4y ago

As a parent and someone who have acquaintances in China, I am encouraging many of my Chinese friends to get their kids out of the country right now, and not wait for Xi Jing Ping to declare himself emperor in October and preparing for war against Taiwan in the next 5 years. So their kids aren't ship fodders when China mobilize their citizens to get on ships that will be sank quickly and swiftly by US, Japanese and NATO navies. That said, there's already a huge migration for many Chinese citizens, especially those from Shanghai, to Singapore and Malaysia this year, since now it's super hard to emigrate to US or Australia or Canada. The rich do see the writing on the wall. or rather, the many buses to the covid concentration camps.

vkou 4y ago
Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions. What do you mean? Sure it has a large population, but it's also a nation of only children.
  - vkou 4y ago
    For the same reason that China did not need conscription when it fought the Korean war. It will have no problem recruiting enough volunteers, just like the US had no problem recruiting enough volunteers post-Vietnam. And because any conflict its likely to fight will not be one across a two-thousand kilometer front that physically requires millions of people sitting in trenches. It's not 1943 or 1917 anymore.
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      >>> Given China's demographics, conscription seems entirely unnecessary for any of imperial ambitions. >> What do you mean? Sure it has a large population, but it's also a nation of only children. > For the same reason that China did not need conscription when it fought the Korean war. Your kind of ignoring the point. During the Korean War, China didn't have the one-child policy and families were big. The US never had such a policy.

62951413 4y ago

Technically, may be not yet. I work with a developer from Ukraine whose parents are not that old. His father cannot come visit him because he is not 60 yet. But he hasn't been drafted either. In all fairness, the Russian people had * a chance to stop the KGB in 2000, possibly in 2004 * at least fifteen years to get another passport in a great environment before 2014 * an opportunity to oppose the war in 2014 when that didn't mean getting fired and likely jailed * another 5 years under more challenging but still workable circumstances to run away * half of 2022 for really desperate actions At this point those still in the country have nobody else to blame for their situation unfortunately. The scale of the tragedy for the Eastern Slavs is reaching truly historical proportions. The 21st century was not supposed to be like that and I don't really want to know what's next.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
> * at least fifteen years to get another passport in a great environment before 2014 Getting another passport is really difficult and expensive. My family emigrated 16 years ago and I still can't get one. In my entire family only one of us succeesed.
- saiya-jin 4y ago
  Hardest country to emigrate to in Europe is most probably Switzerland (barring maybe some tiny 'states' with obscure rules). There you can apply for citizenship after 10 years of continuous habitation (which means work at least majority of the time), and you need to pass some pretty basic language and overall knowledge test. I know quite a few Russians here, who wanted to get passport has it, its just about strong enough will and consistency. But that's something very few have, ie consistently take language courses for a year or two, learn culture, history, actually integrate into local society and not just stick around the people from same speaking country all the time. If you have no good expertise, work hard on getting one, god damn there are countless programmes in both EU and Switzerland to become an expert in something basically for free. It may not be a CEO position but it will be a well paid honest job. Sorry but every single time I've met people complaining about this, they really, really slacked on above and just kept dreaming about superb chances for free, which obviously never came. This may not be true about other continents, no experience there. But commenter you respond to is 100% correct for Europe.

Silverback_VII 4y ago

The less Russia has to lose the more I'm concerned about a potential nuclear war. Western Europe should start to negotiate as soon as possible and give Russia some space. The tail risk is simply too great.

hef19898 4y ago
Why would we do that, exactly? Western Europe lived through the constant threatbof a nuclear war all the way to the end of the 80s, so that is nothing new. Also, MAD applies, there are two Western European countries with a full nuclear triad.
- cestith 4y ago
  If the nuclear weapons come out, the US would at least seriously consider retaliatory strikes as well. If NATO countries are attacked, the US is treaty-bound to fight alongside them, too.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  Indeed. And prevailing winds on the European continent blow into Russia from the west. Beyond the reality of instant and powerful retalation, dropping nuclear weapons on Berlin or Kyiv or Warsaw is a tad suicidal from that POV alone. And even the use of a small scale "tactical" nuke inside Ukrainian territory would essentially force NATO into committing its own forces inside Ukraine. It would be too far beyond the pale. I don't think Putin will take this gamble. The whole world would lose, but Russia would lose even more.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Back the day, before the Urkaine invasion, I thought of Putin as a pu0et player and calculated risk taker, but one that knew his limits and had a keen risk calculation. The he non-surprise invaded Ukraine and botched it horribly. Seems somewhere during Covid he got on the crazy train to his own universe of madness... I totally think Putin is insane enough by now to order a tactical nuclear strike. I also think, for now, the Russian military will act by then and "remove" him from power. Or not, because who knows how those things play out in real life.

Markoff 4y ago

if they follow the Russian law they can opt for civillian 2 years service for minimum pay without weapons, so it's your option - better paid meatgrinder and crappy safe work, there is also option to get jailed up to 10 years if the prison will last that long

maxgashkov 4y ago
'Opt out' is not as easy as you make it sound, this is based on a particular military commissioner discretion and they are heavily incentivized not to allow it. There is an option to sue, if you have proper connections, enough money etc. etc.