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> Naively, if our EROI halves, then we should be at worst half as rich, Interesting question. Not if energy is used to build things that then build things, whi
by galdosdi 4y ago
> Naively, if our EROI halves, then we should be at worst half as rich,
Interesting question. Not if energy is used to build things that then build things, which it is. Depending on how long that "chain" is on average, the efficiency difference can compound exponentially.
For example, if you have 3 chains of repeated processing, and each link is made 10% more efficient, the total output is increased by 1.1^3, or about 33.1%
I am not sure what kind of a number you could empirically estimate for the "average chain length" of the physical "tool chain" used to produce modern industrial goods, but it's probably at least 2, which would suggest halving efficiency yields cutting final output four-fold!
And yes, I don't actually have a real idea of the answer because it also depends on many other factors like the degree to which energy is the limiting resource for each individual step, how fast capital amortizes (literally how long a factory part lasts between replacement, essentially), etc. I really have no idea either. But my first back of the envelope initial guess would be more pessimistic than "cut efficiency in half, get half the output"
Source: ....got addicted to factorio last week. Please send help.