During the first weeks of covid, the shortage of simple things such as face masks and disinfectants (even when the authorities were still saying such masks were

During the first weeks of covid, the shortage of simple things such as face masks and disinfectants (even when the authorities were still saying such masks were useless), made me anticipate the following: - Countries will start to move away from a JIT supply chain over country borders, and move towards a setup where they can ensure their more important goods/components can be produced either domestically or with their most trusted allies. - As the pandemic was not likely to end until good vaccines were available, and flock immunity reached, the economic direct effects would be likely to last for 1-3 years. - During this time period, global lockdowns and limitations in transportation would lead to devestated supply chains, globally. - During that period, governments would be likely to start WW2-level public spending to ensure the basic needs of the population were met, and not worry so much about what comes after. - For the US, I expected this to be true, even if Trump would win the election, but if he didn't, I predicted that Democrats would be obligated to spend even more than Trump would have. - Eventually, these factors would all contribute to severly constrain the supply side of the economy, while government spending/money printing would ensure the demand side remained strong - This imbalance would trigger a massive increase to inflation, and most probably stagflation. - These changes would in turn lead to increased conflict levels both within nations and between them. Basically, increased frequencies of wars, strikes, mercantilism, tarrifs and trade wars/sanctions. - These actions would in turn ensure that the economic crisis would drag out for years after the economy could otherwise be returned to something close to normal. According to this timeline, what remains is primarily more conflict, and perhaps in particular massive strikes in many countries that will weaken the supply side further, and prolong the ongoing stagflation, perhaps 10 years or more, before we come to our senses. (Especially if China invades Taiwan).