4 ms·

I think the idea was that dick-swinging and escalating this whole deal into a war was kinda an avoidable thing, and now all we see is the sunk cost falacy

_kbh_ 4y ago
> I think the idea was that dick-swinging and escalating this whole deal into a war was kinda an avoidable thing, and now all we see is the sunk cost falacy It was unavoidable because despite what Russia says they likely started this war over natural resources in Ukraine, they saw that Ukraine was going to become a massive provider of natural resources to the EU and saw that as a threat. Because, if its really over NATO, why isn't Russia invading Finland?.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > likely Ehh, "likely". Seems to me like there were quite a lot of much more pressing factors. > Because, if its really over NATO, why isn't Russia invading Finland?. Why would it? Russia had warned Finland of repercussions of deploying NATOs military infrastructure. NATO does not exist in a vacuum and we are not playing magical alchemy here: Finland is a stable country with solid governmental and social institutions, that cares for the long-term prosperity of its citizens and generally doesn't base its identity on anti-russian rhetorics. Ukraine, on the other hand, recently had a revolution, collapsed all the stability institutions that it had managed to grow after the SU dissolution, has a government relying on populist anti-russian militant rhetorics and has a president dumb enough to seriously and openly discuss deploying foreign nukes or making their own (Ukraine's atomic industry could produce dirty bombs). Finland in NATO is sad, but at least it's not immediately dangerous, as Fins are unlikely to be willing to pose as human shields for the US military infrastructure. Nowadays Ukraine in NATO is a total disaster and at its best would be a repetition of Turkey-Cuba missile crisis, except this time there would be no Cuba and no deterrent.
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > Finland in NATO is sad, but at least it's not immediately dangerous, as Fins are unlikely to be willing to pose as human shields for the US military infrastructure. How is Finland in NATO sad?, Finland has joined the largest defensive military alliance in the world, and they clearly felt as a country that had been invaded by the USSR in the past that they needed more protections. Russia won't even breathe in the direction of Finland now, because Russia cannot handle NATO and Russia knows it.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      > How is Finland in NATO sad? I was talking about Russian perspective. > the largest defensive military alliance in the world Putting aside the question of whether large military alliances are a good or a bad thing, NATOs "defensiveness" and peacefulness is nothing more than a marketing slogan: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations One surely doesn't use toxic depleted uranium munitions for defense. > they clearly felt as a country What exactly is implied by "as a country"? Cuz I remember how some Fins were upset that there wasn't any specific voting process, but only a decision of politicians. > invaded by the USSR in the past that they needed more protections. If you are referring to the Winter war some years after the collapse of the Russian Empire (of which Finland had been part of), this has all been resolved a long time ago, and all the political will for conflict and related frictions had died out before any of us was born. > Russia won't even breathe in the direction of Finland now Did it though? There were no frictions up until Finlands decision to join NATO. > because Russia cannot handle NATO and Russia knows it. Russia already feels like it's handling NATO in Ukraine with all those NATO instructors and NATO weapons. Besides, I think by now it should be clear that "I dare you, watchagonnado" politics doesn't bring you to good places.
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        > Russia already feels like it's handling NATO in Ukraine with all those NATO instructors and NATO weapons. Besides, I think by now it should be clear that "I dare you, watchagonnado" politics doesn't bring you to good places. Russia says they are fighting NATO itself in Ukraine as a way to try and justify there armies poor performance in Ukraine, I dont think the Russian military actually think its fighting NATO in Ukraine and knows that NATO itself would wipe the floor with Russia, considering the performance of Ukraine using only some second hand NATO weaponry.

_kbh_ 4y ago

> I think the idea was that dick-swinging and escalating this whole deal into a war was kinda an avoidable thing, and now all we see is the sunk cost falacy It was unavoidable because despite what Russia says they likely started this war over natural resources in Ukraine, they saw that Ukraine was going to become a massive provider of natural resources to the EU and saw that as a threat. Because, if its really over NATO, why isn't Russia invading Finland?.

foverzar 4y ago
> likely Ehh, "likely". Seems to me like there were quite a lot of much more pressing factors. > Because, if its really over NATO, why isn't Russia invading Finland?. Why would it? Russia had warned Finland of repercussions of deploying NATOs military infrastructure. NATO does not exist in a vacuum and we are not playing magical alchemy here: Finland is a stable country with solid governmental and social institutions, that cares for the long-term prosperity of its citizens and generally doesn't base its identity on anti-russian rhetorics. Ukraine, on the other hand, recently had a revolution, collapsed all the stability institutions that it had managed to grow after the SU dissolution, has a government relying on populist anti-russian militant rhetorics and has a president dumb enough to seriously and openly discuss deploying foreign nukes or making their own (Ukraine's atomic industry could produce dirty bombs). Finland in NATO is sad, but at least it's not immediately dangerous, as Fins are unlikely to be willing to pose as human shields for the US military infrastructure. Nowadays Ukraine in NATO is a total disaster and at its best would be a repetition of Turkey-Cuba missile crisis, except this time there would be no Cuba and no deterrent.
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > Finland in NATO is sad, but at least it's not immediately dangerous, as Fins are unlikely to be willing to pose as human shields for the US military infrastructure. How is Finland in NATO sad?, Finland has joined the largest defensive military alliance in the world, and they clearly felt as a country that had been invaded by the USSR in the past that they needed more protections. Russia won't even breathe in the direction of Finland now, because Russia cannot handle NATO and Russia knows it.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > How is Finland in NATO sad? I was talking about Russian perspective. > the largest defensive military alliance in the world Putting aside the question of whether large military alliances are a good or a bad thing, NATOs "defensiveness" and peacefulness is nothing more than a marketing slogan: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations One surely doesn't use toxic depleted uranium munitions for defense. > they clearly felt as a country What exactly is implied by "as a country"? Cuz I remember how some Fins were upset that there wasn't any specific voting process, but only a decision of politicians. > invaded by the USSR in the past that they needed more protections. If you are referring to the Winter war some years after the collapse of the Russian Empire (of which Finland had been part of), this has all been resolved a long time ago, and all the political will for conflict and related frictions had died out before any of us was born. > Russia won't even breathe in the direction of Finland now Did it though? There were no frictions up until Finlands decision to join NATO. > because Russia cannot handle NATO and Russia knows it. Russia already feels like it's handling NATO in Ukraine with all those NATO instructors and NATO weapons. Besides, I think by now it should be clear that "I dare you, watchagonnado" politics doesn't bring you to good places.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      > Russia already feels like it's handling NATO in Ukraine with all those NATO instructors and NATO weapons. Besides, I think by now it should be clear that "I dare you, watchagonnado" politics doesn't bring you to good places. Russia says they are fighting NATO itself in Ukraine as a way to try and justify there armies poor performance in Ukraine, I dont think the Russian military actually think its fighting NATO in Ukraine and knows that NATO itself would wipe the floor with Russia, considering the performance of Ukraine using only some second hand NATO weaponry.