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I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vas

by _0w8t 4y ago

I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vast majority of troops. It looks like after the initial Ukrainian breakthrough Russian generals managed to convince Putin to abandon most of Kharkiv and focus on Donbas instead. At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. And Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas that was heavily fortified during the last 8 years, after Bahmut any defensive positions will be much weaker. And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. What is clear is that without significantly increased heavy weapon support for Ukraine the war can drag for years. And it looks like West is not going to do it for various reasons. I mean I understand the fear to give ATACMS, but I just do not understand why not extended range GMLRS and heavy artillery.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
> Kharkiv collapse was not that big. That's nonsense. It was an entire front of the war. A huge land area. Russia spent months trying to conquer Izyum. There's basically no clear intel on what was left behind, or how many people were taken prisoner, but even if it's nothing, which it isn't, it's a major loss. > At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. It has barely nudged in months. It is difficult. Fighting is hard. But it's not meaningful in the slightest and it's not strategically important. > And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. I give Lyman a week to hold out at most personally. It's surrounded on two sides, soon to be 3. If it falls you may see another yolo rush. Lysyschansk is not currently an active fighting zone but they're pushing east from Bilohorivka, which is very close. It could take a while for that to develop.
sharikous 4y ago
> Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas There are a lot of other lines, e.g. near Donetsk. And with the time it is taking for the Russians to advance there is plenty of time for the Ukrainians to set up other lines. > Kharkiv collapse was not that big It removed the last hope the Russian had to take the fortifications you mention from behind, descending from the north. Now the Russians are just throwing everything they have at fortifications specifically built to defend against this kind of attack. No wonder they advance so slowly. What worries me is that from an historical perspective it is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preluded WW II. Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War.
- pjc50 4y ago
  > Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War. Russia and NATO Turkey have both been engaged in Syria. This led to a Russian incursion into Turkey being shot down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo... I can see why the West was so reluctant to get involved in Syria given the failures of Iraq and Afghanistan, but I do wonder if more decisive action of some kind against Russia's involvement, or their shootdown of a passenger jet, or the Salisbury poisonings, might have discouraged the invasion of Ukraine in the first place.
- _0w8t 4y ago
  The was a heavy battle between US army and Russian mercenaries from Wagner in Syria. There are various estimates but at least 100 Russians were killed and probably up to 400, https://www.coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-syria-khasham https://www.coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-syria-khasham

by _0w8t 4y ago

spywaregorilla 4y ago

> Kharkiv collapse was not that big. That's nonsense. It was an entire front of the war. A huge land area. Russia spent months trying to conquer Izyum. There's basically no clear intel on what was left behind, or how many people were taken prisoner, but even if it's nothing, which it isn't, it's a major loss. > At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. It has barely nudged in months. It is difficult. Fighting is hard. But it's not meaningful in the slightest and it's not strategically important. > And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. I give Lyman a week to hold out at most personally. It's surrounded on two sides, soon to be 3. If it falls you may see another yolo rush. Lysyschansk is not currently an active fighting zone but they're pushing east from Bilohorivka, which is very close. It could take a while for that to develop.

sharikous 4y ago

> Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas There are a lot of other lines, e.g. near Donetsk. And with the time it is taking for the Russians to advance there is plenty of time for the Ukrainians to set up other lines. > Kharkiv collapse was not that big It removed the last hope the Russian had to take the fortifications you mention from behind, descending from the north. Now the Russians are just throwing everything they have at fortifications specifically built to defend against this kind of attack. No wonder they advance so slowly. What worries me is that from an historical perspective it is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preluded WW II. Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War.

pjc50 4y ago
> Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War. Russia and NATO Turkey have both been engaged in Syria. This led to a Russian incursion into Turkey being shot down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo... I can see why the West was so reluctant to get involved in Syria given the failures of Iraq and Afghanistan, but I do wonder if more decisive action of some kind against Russia's involvement, or their shootdown of a passenger jet, or the Salisbury poisonings, might have discouraged the invasion of Ukraine in the first place.
_0w8t 4y ago
The was a heavy battle between US army and Russian mercenaries from Wagner in Syria. There are various estimates but at least 100 Russians were killed and probably up to 400, https://www.coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-syria-khasham https://www.coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-syria-khasham