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A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting i

A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale. When the russian front in kharkiv collapsed and everyone fled, there were many units just wandering around, and even setting up defensive lines because they didn't know the rest of the force had been routed and that the enemy was already behind them. Forcing people to the front isn't going to change this. Russian strategy has been repeating idiotic assaults on bakhmut for 2 months with no gains while just trying to hold on elsewhere. Ukraine on the other hand has been maintaining a decent momentum from their offensive, taking Lyman, and on the verge of looking to retake Lysychansk and maybe Severodonetsk again. Progress will be relatively slow, but it's not crazy to imagine another wave of collapse. It'll take a long time to get a working army together. I'd bet on Ukraine and western support every day. The only thing that could change the calculus is nuclear weapons.

tablespoon 4y ago
> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale. The Russians may be suffering from "bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale," but I've read in several places that they're also suffering from a lack of manpower. Or, more specifically: too much equipment in proportion to their ground troops, and also too many combat troops in proportion to support personnel.
sofixa 4y ago
> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter Oh it matters. More poorly trained and equipped cannon fodder means more dead and more prisoners. The influx of caskets into previously less impacted areas in Russia might start to impact the general population more - that's how the USSR had to pull out of Afghanistan.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  Not quite. Russia has already lost several multiples of the total losses it experienced in Afghanistan as the USSR (many of which were Ukranian btw). The USSR had a lot more troops vs. Russia's current situation which is really a smaller peacetime army (pre mobilization). The reason they had to leave Afghanistan was it simply too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS what is happening in Ukraine too.
  - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
    >> too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS what is happening in Ukraine too. How so? Putin is swimming in money Europeans send him. Sanctions are a joke.
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      Russia enjoyed a brief surplus with high gas prices. It has collapsed and the government is now running a towards a hefty deficit. About 90% gone in just two months. Government spending is being cut down by 10% next year, while a greater share is allocated to the military, meaning actual useful domestic spending is going to go down even more. The sanctions are having a strong effect. The military spending is cushioned by the fact that they had so much shit lying around to throw into the fire, but this will continue to grow worse over time. Contrary to popular belief, Russia cannot simply switch selling gas from europe to china either. The pipeline infrastructure does not exist to turn it into LNG and ship it in comparable quantities. https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget...
      - adamc 4y ago
        It's worse than that. They have limited storage and if they can't sell much of the oil, they have to turn the wells off. Problem there is that the oil will freeze in the winter, the pipes crack, and then it takes a lot of work and expense to turn it back on. Or so I have heard -- not posing as an expert on oil fields.
_0w8t 4y ago
I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vast majority of troops. It looks like after the initial Ukrainian breakthrough Russian generals managed to convince Putin to abandon most of Kharkiv and focus on Donbas instead. At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. And Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas that was heavily fortified during the last 8 years, after Bahmut any defensive positions will be much weaker. And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. What is clear is that without significantly increased heavy weapon support for Ukraine the war can drag for years. And it looks like West is not going to do it for various reasons. I mean I understand the fear to give ATACMS, but I just do not understand why not extended range GMLRS and heavy artillery.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  > Kharkiv collapse was not that big. That's nonsense. It was an entire front of the war. A huge land area. Russia spent months trying to conquer Izyum. There's basically no clear intel on what was left behind, or how many people were taken prisoner, but even if it's nothing, which it isn't, it's a major loss. > At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. It has barely nudged in months. It is difficult. Fighting is hard. But it's not meaningful in the slightest and it's not strategically important. > And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. I give Lyman a week to hold out at most personally. It's surrounded on two sides, soon to be 3. If it falls you may see another yolo rush. Lysyschansk is not currently an active fighting zone but they're pushing east from Bilohorivka, which is very close. It could take a while for that to develop.
- sharikous 4y ago
  > Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas There are a lot of other lines, e.g. near Donetsk. And with the time it is taking for the Russians to advance there is plenty of time for the Ukrainians to set up other lines. > Kharkiv collapse was not that big It removed the last hope the Russian had to take the fortifications you mention from behind, descending from the north. Now the Russians are just throwing everything they have at fortifications specifically built to defend against this kind of attack. No wonder they advance so slowly. What worries me is that from an historical perspective it is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preluded WW II. Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War.
bryanlarsen 4y ago
Another thing that could change the war could be North Korean men and/or Chinese material. Neither are likely, but both are possible and have been rumored.
- Balgair 4y ago
  The possibility of DPRK munitions use is discussed here : https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567227150926766081 https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567227150926766081 TLDR: DPRK munitions are more likely to explode in transport and kill RF units than to ever be used against AFU. As for DPRK soldiers, I'm not sure even Kim is stupid enough to follow Putin into this morass.
- rippercushions 4y ago
  Neither has any interest in getting involved in this. I'm not sure even Assad's fighters from Syria materialized in the end, and that regime is far more indebted to Russia than China, much less the DPRK, will ever be.
- Fatnino 4y ago
  North Korean men are very green too. The main thing they know to do is march in very neat lines. Most have never fired a live round in their lives, even for training.
tim333 4y ago
Using nukes would be unlikely to go well for Russia. The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out so setting off a nuke would only take out a few and in response the west would probably do bad stuff to Russia, quite likely US non nuclear air strikes which could wipe out much of the Russian forces.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  Probably. But they're still enough to dramatically change the state of the war. I think it's a losing gamble as well and it will not be done.
  - ASalazarMX 4y ago
    It's so very a losing gamble. USA (and NATO by association) must have very good reasons to push the Russian dictator into a corner. I'd sure like to know what's the plan if Putin fires a nuclear missile into international waters, into Ukraine, or he decides to fire them all because he has nothing to lose anymore. Fortunately, it seems like launching nuclear attacks is frowned upon by the armies of every member of the nuclear club, it's not as easy as pushing a red button.
- timeon 4y ago
  > The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out It would be probably civilian target.
  - adamc 4y ago
    At that point, they would be risking nuclear reprisals.
  - emptyfile 4y ago
    Targeting a civilian target with a strategic weapon is a completely different thing than tactical nuclear weapons. Kiev getting nuked means all out nuclear war. At the very least you know Putin loves himself too much to die like that.
vladcodes 4y ago
> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. Have you seen any zombie movies?
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  I have.
spaceheater 4y ago
- ASalazarMX 4y ago
  A 50 minute YouTube video of the same talking head is almost always a sign of misinformation. I would understand 10 minutes if they need to monetize it, but ideally, my propaganda should come in short videos of Russian advocates dancing to sick tunes.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  > You say collapse, others[0] say it was a retreat of 2000 soldiers with minimal loses. I'm sure they do. Good luck with the draft.
  - spaceheater 4y ago
    Those reports are reluctantly corroborated by the west[0], although it seems you are more interested in bad faith communication with snarky remarks, to each their own. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/ee62788a-8191-48e2-87ee-e455614d58ca https://www.ft.com/content/ee62788a-8191-48e2-87ee-e455614d5...
    - spywaregorilla 4y ago
      No, I'm saying good luck with the draft, because you're in a country that is mobilizing canon fodder for war. I'm laughing at your youtube source because it's a former british barrister who was debarred for bribery and... faking his own kidnapping? Your financial times source has plenty of good quotes. None of which support the that it was a minor retreat of just a couple thousand dudes. > A senior military official said on Monday that Russian forces “had largely ceded their gains” around Ukraine’s second-largest city and “withdrawn to the north and the east”, adding that “many of these forces have moved over the border into Russia”. Kyiv says as much 6,000 sq km of territory has been “de-occupied”. > Moscow’s troops abandoned equipment as they retreated “could be indicative of Russia’s disorganised command and control.” > The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged its troops have pulled back in the Kharkiv region, but authorities have avoided calling it a retreat. > In Izyum, a critical logistics hub where thousands of Russian troops had been stationed, Ukrainian soldiers hoisted the national flag over the central district government building in the main square. Note the last quote; thousands of troops in the city of Izyum alone.
homeland221 4y ago
Those bad things you concluded are mostly sourced from Ukrainian MoD. Winter is coming. Mother of all recession is coming to EU and America within nezt 2-3mths. Putin is preparing for overwhelming offensive (read up WW2 Russians modus operandi and you'll understand what Putin is thinking). Chinese side has been pumping resources like manpower and factories to Putin (in return for the EU portion of energy redirected to China). Heck even financial flows as well. You are looking at extremely well play chess moves. Hard to say for that for Americans...really pathetic seeing after 20 years gotten humiliated by a bunch of goat herders. Gotten kicked out of Iraq. If you have relatives toured in those failed wars you will know the casualty count were grossly understated. The only things I'm worried is USA launching nukes (US is the only country in the world ever to use nuke against others). I'm less worried about Putin. He moved very rationally. Once those regions declared joining Russia, any offensive from Ukraine will be deemed as invading Russia. This easily can justify huge number of military response with huge Russian public backing (despite what you read in the west, I suggest you try Russian soirces or friends...you'll be very surprised how different reality over there to what you thought).
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  > You are looking at extremely well play chess moves. Bongcloud opening maybe

tablespoon 4y ago

> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale. The Russians may be suffering from "bad supplies, bad comms, and bad morale," but I've read in several places that they're also suffering from a lack of manpower. Or, more specifically: too much equipment in proportion to their ground troops, and also too many combat troops in proportion to support personnel.

sofixa 4y ago

> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter Oh it matters. More poorly trained and equipped cannon fodder means more dead and more prisoners. The influx of caskets into previously less impacted areas in Russia might start to impact the general population more - that's how the USSR had to pull out of Afghanistan.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Not quite. Russia has already lost several multiples of the total losses it experienced in Afghanistan as the USSR (many of which were Ukranian btw). The USSR had a lot more troops vs. Russia's current situation which is really a smaller peacetime army (pre mobilization). The reason they had to leave Afghanistan was it simply too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS what is happening in Ukraine too.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y ago
  >> too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS what is happening in Ukraine too. How so? Putin is swimming in money Europeans send him. Sanctions are a joke.
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    Russia enjoyed a brief surplus with high gas prices. It has collapsed and the government is now running a towards a hefty deficit. About 90% gone in just two months. Government spending is being cut down by 10% next year, while a greater share is allocated to the military, meaning actual useful domestic spending is going to go down even more. The sanctions are having a strong effect. The military spending is cushioned by the fact that they had so much shit lying around to throw into the fire, but this will continue to grow worse over time. Contrary to popular belief, Russia cannot simply switch selling gas from europe to china either. The pipeline infrastructure does not exist to turn it into LNG and ship it in comparable quantities. https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget...
    - adamc 4y ago
      It's worse than that. They have limited storage and if they can't sell much of the oil, they have to turn the wells off. Problem there is that the oil will freeze in the winter, the pipes crack, and then it takes a lot of work and expense to turn it back on. Or so I have heard -- not posing as an expert on oil fields.

_0w8t 4y ago

I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vast majority of troops. It looks like after the initial Ukrainian breakthrough Russian generals managed to convince Putin to abandon most of Kharkiv and focus on Donbas instead. At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. And Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas that was heavily fortified during the last 8 years, after Bahmut any defensive positions will be much weaker. And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. What is clear is that without significantly increased heavy weapon support for Ukraine the war can drag for years. And it looks like West is not going to do it for various reasons. I mean I understand the fear to give ATACMS, but I just do not understand why not extended range GMLRS and heavy artillery.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
> Kharkiv collapse was not that big. That's nonsense. It was an entire front of the war. A huge land area. Russia spent months trying to conquer Izyum. There's basically no clear intel on what was left behind, or how many people were taken prisoner, but even if it's nothing, which it isn't, it's a major loss. > At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. It has barely nudged in months. It is difficult. Fighting is hard. But it's not meaningful in the slightest and it's not strategically important. > And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more. I give Lyman a week to hold out at most personally. It's surrounded on two sides, soon to be 3. If it falls you may see another yolo rush. Lysyschansk is not currently an active fighting zone but they're pushing east from Bilohorivka, which is very close. It could take a while for that to develop.
sharikous 4y ago
> Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas There are a lot of other lines, e.g. near Donetsk. And with the time it is taking for the Russians to advance there is plenty of time for the Ukrainians to set up other lines. > Kharkiv collapse was not that big It removed the last hope the Russian had to take the fortifications you mention from behind, descending from the north. Now the Russians are just throwing everything they have at fortifications specifically built to defend against this kind of attack. No wonder they advance so slowly. What worries me is that from an historical perspective it is reminiscent of the Spanish Civil War that preluded WW II. Such a direct involvement of foreign superpowers was not seen even in the Syrian Civil War.

bryanlarsen 4y ago

Another thing that could change the war could be North Korean men and/or Chinese material. Neither are likely, but both are possible and have been rumored.

Balgair 4y ago
The possibility of DPRK munitions use is discussed here : https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567227150926766081 https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1567227150926766081 TLDR: DPRK munitions are more likely to explode in transport and kill RF units than to ever be used against AFU. As for DPRK soldiers, I'm not sure even Kim is stupid enough to follow Putin into this morass.
rippercushions 4y ago
Neither has any interest in getting involved in this. I'm not sure even Assad's fighters from Syria materialized in the end, and that regime is far more indebted to Russia than China, much less the DPRK, will ever be.
Fatnino 4y ago
North Korean men are very green too. The main thing they know to do is march in very neat lines. Most have never fired a live round in their lives, even for training.

tim333 4y ago

Using nukes would be unlikely to go well for Russia. The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out so setting off a nuke would only take out a few and in response the west would probably do bad stuff to Russia, quite likely US non nuclear air strikes which could wipe out much of the Russian forces.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Probably. But they're still enough to dramatically change the state of the war. I think it's a losing gamble as well and it will not be done.
- ASalazarMX 4y ago
  It's so very a losing gamble. USA (and NATO by association) must have very good reasons to push the Russian dictator into a corner. I'd sure like to know what's the plan if Putin fires a nuclear missile into international waters, into Ukraine, or he decides to fire them all because he has nothing to lose anymore. Fortunately, it seems like launching nuclear attacks is frowned upon by the armies of every member of the nuclear club, it's not as easy as pushing a red button.
timeon 4y ago
> The Ukrainian troops are pretty spread out It would be probably civilian target.
- adamc 4y ago
  At that point, they would be risking nuclear reprisals.
- emptyfile 4y ago
  Targeting a civilian target with a strategic weapon is a completely different thing than tactical nuclear weapons. Kiev getting nuked means all out nuclear war. At the very least you know Putin loves himself too much to die like that.

vladcodes 4y ago

> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. Have you seen any zombie movies?

spywaregorilla 4y ago
I have.

spaceheater 4y ago

ASalazarMX 4y ago
A 50 minute YouTube video of the same talking head is almost always a sign of misinformation. I would understand 10 minutes if they need to monetize it, but ideally, my propaganda should come in short videos of Russian advocates dancing to sick tunes.
spywaregorilla 4y ago
> You say collapse, others[0] say it was a retreat of 2000 soldiers with minimal loses. I'm sure they do. Good luck with the draft.
- spaceheater 4y ago
  Those reports are reluctantly corroborated by the west[0], although it seems you are more interested in bad faith communication with snarky remarks, to each their own. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/ee62788a-8191-48e2-87ee-e455614d58ca https://www.ft.com/content/ee62788a-8191-48e2-87ee-e455614d5...
  - spywaregorilla 4y ago
    No, I'm saying good luck with the draft, because you're in a country that is mobilizing canon fodder for war. I'm laughing at your youtube source because it's a former british barrister who was debarred for bribery and... faking his own kidnapping? Your financial times source has plenty of good quotes. None of which support the that it was a minor retreat of just a couple thousand dudes. > A senior military official said on Monday that Russian forces “had largely ceded their gains” around Ukraine’s second-largest city and “withdrawn to the north and the east”, adding that “many of these forces have moved over the border into Russia”. Kyiv says as much 6,000 sq km of territory has been “de-occupied”. > Moscow’s troops abandoned equipment as they retreated “could be indicative of Russia’s disorganised command and control.” > The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged its troops have pulled back in the Kharkiv region, but authorities have avoided calling it a retreat. > In Izyum, a critical logistics hub where thousands of Russian troops had been stationed, Ukrainian soldiers hoisted the national flag over the central district government building in the main square. Note the last quote; thousands of troops in the city of Izyum alone.

homeland221 4y ago

Those bad things you concluded are mostly sourced from Ukrainian MoD. Winter is coming. Mother of all recession is coming to EU and America within nezt 2-3mths. Putin is preparing for overwhelming offensive (read up WW2 Russians modus operandi and you'll understand what Putin is thinking). Chinese side has been pumping resources like manpower and factories to Putin (in return for the EU portion of energy redirected to China). Heck even financial flows as well. You are looking at extremely well play chess moves. Hard to say for that for Americans...really pathetic seeing after 20 years gotten humiliated by a bunch of goat herders. Gotten kicked out of Iraq. If you have relatives toured in those failed wars you will know the casualty count were grossly understated. The only things I'm worried is USA launching nukes (US is the only country in the world ever to use nuke against others). I'm less worried about Putin. He moved very rationally. Once those regions declared joining Russia, any offensive from Ukraine will be deemed as invading Russia. This easily can justify huge number of military response with huge Russian public backing (despite what you read in the west, I suggest you try Russian soirces or friends...you'll be very surprised how different reality over there to what you thought).

spywaregorilla 4y ago
> You are looking at extremely well play chess moves. Bongcloud opening maybe