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I don't think the signal was intended primarily for the international audience. Putin is under a lot of pressure from hawks in his own ranks to win this war. Th

by lolc 4y ago

I don't think the signal was intended primarily for the international audience. Putin is under a lot of pressure from hawks in his own ranks to win this war. They were asking him why he isn't mobilising. And now they will be saying that it's not enough. I guess there won't be enough boots for the new conscripts, so this dynamic will be interesting to watch.

saiya-jin 4y ago
I really don't think he is facing any kind of true rivalry here. Read up a bit (ie [1] is fantastic since its from 2018 but still 100% valid) on the structures of power and ingrained potential (and limits) of corruption that he gives to those under him. Its not like there is any democracy, other hawks/oligarchs with big ego need to shut up and follow within their constraints or they are murdered or imprisoned, usually pretty visibly, sometimes with whole families. He did it in very smart way, I leave him that (plenty of KGB experience to learn from). Hitler and other dictators were proper amateurs compared to how Russia is run today. Nobody on their own has enough power to stand against him. He has a separate branch of paramilitary forces (on top of Wagner, GRU and KGB forces) that answer only to him and is there only to protect him. What it would require is massive conspiracy and cooperation of literally all of his underlings to topple him down, which is unrealistic to ever happen. Lone shooter/poison deliverer from his closest circle may have the best chance, but I presume he has multiple safeguards there too. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw
- lolc 4y ago
  Yea I didn't want to imply that they could replace him. Or that they even aspire to that. It's more that Putin is losing the narrative. As long as people believe in his strong Russia, they are much easier to govern. As he's losing that story, he has to govern by fear. Much harder, because people will be weasely, instead of proud. In the end, aside from talking to a bunch of Russians, I don't know the place. So my understanding is incomplete I'm sure.

by lolc 4y ago

saiya-jin 4y ago

I really don't think he is facing any kind of true rivalry here. Read up a bit (ie [1] is fantastic since its from 2018 but still 100% valid) on the structures of power and ingrained potential (and limits) of corruption that he gives to those under him. Its not like there is any democracy, other hawks/oligarchs with big ego need to shut up and follow within their constraints or they are murdered or imprisoned, usually pretty visibly, sometimes with whole families. He did it in very smart way, I leave him that (plenty of KGB experience to learn from). Hitler and other dictators were proper amateurs compared to how Russia is run today. Nobody on their own has enough power to stand against him. He has a separate branch of paramilitary forces (on top of Wagner, GRU and KGB forces) that answer only to him and is there only to protect him. What it would require is massive conspiracy and cooperation of literally all of his underlings to topple him down, which is unrealistic to ever happen. Lone shooter/poison deliverer from his closest circle may have the best chance, but I presume he has multiple safeguards there too. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw

lolc 4y ago
Yea I didn't want to imply that they could replace him. Or that they even aspire to that. It's more that Putin is losing the narrative. As long as people believe in his strong Russia, they are much easier to govern. As he's losing that story, he has to govern by fear. Much harder, because people will be weasely, instead of proud. In the end, aside from talking to a bunch of Russians, I don't know the place. So my understanding is incomplete I'm sure.