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> It’s basically Russia telling the west they are serious about escalating if they keep pushing. I think that's the message Russia believes it is conveying. Th

> It’s basically Russia telling the west they are serious about escalating if they keep pushing. I think that's the message Russia believes it is conveying. The information I think they are really signaling (outside of the rhetoric), and what I suspect Nato sees, is that Russia is conceding that it cannot win and hoping its bluff will freeze the conflict, which I don't think it will do.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago
Russia remains a nuclear power. NATO should be and is careful. I agree they know they can’t win but they now need an exit ramp. That’s what I personally read in their posture. It would probably be wise to give them one.
- TillE 4y ago
  The "exit ramp" is that they withdraw from Ukraine, or at the very very least they withdraw to the lines that existed before 2022. I'm really not sure what else people who say this mean.
  - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
    What I mean is that we need to use diplomacy to allow Russia a way to enter negotiations and stop the war while keeping a modicum of face. There is absolutely no chance Russia just leaves Ukraine on their own while saying "we have lost, we were bad and will now behave as you wish" so there would be little point insisting on that. If what we want is a come back to pre-invasion frontiers we need to give them a way to spin that as an acceptable outcome. The alternative is escalation and that doesn’t seem to end well. It might be what the USA wants - they are unlikely to be the ones nuked after all but Europe would be bearing the most of it and that’s not something I wish.
    - sofixa 4y ago
      Russia has plenty of nukes for the US and Europe if Putin decides the murder-suicide path is the only way forward. The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing and it will just be a truce. Not to mention how extremely unfair would be to deny Ukraine it's integrity to placate Russia, a violent genocidal invader.
      - checkyoursudo 4y ago
        I tend to agree with this. Anything less than unequivocal, total loss will mean that we are right back at this in 8 or 12 years. Nuclear countries must not be allowed to take what they want and threaten nuclear destruction if anyone tries to stop them. That would be a terrible outcome.
      - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
        What is that supposed to achieve exactly? The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism. Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished. There is no point in dragging them in the mud further than strictly necessary. Why back them in a corner to the point they are tempted to do the unthinkable?
        sofixa 4y ago
        > They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. Technically the armistice is in Compiègne, the peace treaty is in Versailles (as revenge for the proclamation of the German empire there after the Franco-Prussian war), but yes, however > Germany definitely understood they lost. This is false. Germans were getting glorious victories propaganda up until Ludendorff said they can't win, and threw the hot potato at the Kaiser and a civilian government was formed to seek a peace. So from a citizen's perspective, there were privations but they were winning until suddenly there's a civilian government, communist rebels and we have surrendered (to be later humiliated). Germany wasn't occupied. The German people didn't understand they lost, really, and why. Hence Ludendorff's stab in the back myth and nationalism proliferated. > Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished. But Russians don't know that because they're being fed propaganda to the opposite effect. So if today Putin declares withdrawal, Russian people won't know what happened and why, so we'll be back at it in a few years time. The point isn't to make Russia suffer for the humiliation, but Russians need to understand they've lost and all the horrors they've inflicted while losing. And yes, they should pay for it.
    - TillE 4y ago
      You're still not really saying what you mean in practical terms, but I assume that means ceding parts of Ukraine in a peace deal. This will never happen. The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.
      - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
        It doesn’t necessarily mean ceding parts of Ukraine, no. There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast. I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts since even before the invasion. There is something at play which I don’t entirely grasp.
        timeon 4y ago
        > how far will Ukraine integration into the EU This should be only between Ukraine and EU. Appeasement rarely works.
    - saiya-jin 4y ago
      If they did it in Afghanistan, utterly losing and achieving nothing (at least good for them), they can do it again. Especially if its all their fault and incompetence and self-caused harm. Why should rest of the world babysit some mobster maniac's ego so his feelings are not hurt when he is killing around is beyond me. You understand he will do it again and again, until he cannot or he is dead. Lets work on the former part for now by draining his military of any capabilities.
- polotics 4y ago
  Who is "they" in this dialectic? The Russian people definitely deserves a future. They could even win freedom from corruption, also win democracy, and even pluralism, thanks to the outcome of this war. They deserve no less. Vladimir and his cronies deserves a hefty wake-up call...
  - rasz 4y ago
    russian people should do something about it then. Iron curtain didnt fell on it own, there were years of strikes involving bloody clashes with military. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union... Similar things were happening in Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution and other European countries under Soviet occupation.
  - emptyfile 4y ago
    Here in the real world no one gets anything because they "deserve it". If they want a future they have to fight for it.

WastingMyTime89 4y ago

Russia remains a nuclear power. NATO should be and is careful. I agree they know they can’t win but they now need an exit ramp. That’s what I personally read in their posture. It would probably be wise to give them one.

TillE 4y ago
The "exit ramp" is that they withdraw from Ukraine, or at the very very least they withdraw to the lines that existed before 2022. I'm really not sure what else people who say this mean.
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  What I mean is that we need to use diplomacy to allow Russia a way to enter negotiations and stop the war while keeping a modicum of face. There is absolutely no chance Russia just leaves Ukraine on their own while saying "we have lost, we were bad and will now behave as you wish" so there would be little point insisting on that. If what we want is a come back to pre-invasion frontiers we need to give them a way to spin that as an acceptable outcome. The alternative is escalation and that doesn’t seem to end well. It might be what the USA wants - they are unlikely to be the ones nuked after all but Europe would be bearing the most of it and that’s not something I wish.
  - sofixa 4y ago
    Russia has plenty of nukes for the US and Europe if Putin decides the murder-suicide path is the only way forward. The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing and it will just be a truce. Not to mention how extremely unfair would be to deny Ukraine it's integrity to placate Russia, a violent genocidal invader.
    - checkyoursudo 4y ago
      I tend to agree with this. Anything less than unequivocal, total loss will mean that we are right back at this in 8 or 12 years. Nuclear countries must not be allowed to take what they want and threaten nuclear destruction if anyone tries to stop them. That would be a terrible outcome.
    - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
      What is that supposed to achieve exactly? The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism. Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished. There is no point in dragging them in the mud further than strictly necessary. Why back them in a corner to the point they are tempted to do the unthinkable?
      - sofixa 4y ago
        > They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. Technically the armistice is in Compiègne, the peace treaty is in Versailles (as revenge for the proclamation of the German empire there after the Franco-Prussian war), but yes, however > Germany definitely understood they lost. This is false. Germans were getting glorious victories propaganda up until Ludendorff said they can't win, and threw the hot potato at the Kaiser and a civilian government was formed to seek a peace. So from a citizen's perspective, there were privations but they were winning until suddenly there's a civilian government, communist rebels and we have surrendered (to be later humiliated). Germany wasn't occupied. The German people didn't understand they lost, really, and why. Hence Ludendorff's stab in the back myth and nationalism proliferated. > Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished. But Russians don't know that because they're being fed propaganda to the opposite effect. So if today Putin declares withdrawal, Russian people won't know what happened and why, so we'll be back at it in a few years time. The point isn't to make Russia suffer for the humiliation, but Russians need to understand they've lost and all the horrors they've inflicted while losing. And yes, they should pay for it.
  - TillE 4y ago
    You're still not really saying what you mean in practical terms, but I assume that means ceding parts of Ukraine in a peace deal. This will never happen. The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.
    - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
      It doesn’t necessarily mean ceding parts of Ukraine, no. There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast. I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts since even before the invasion. There is something at play which I don’t entirely grasp.
      - timeon 4y ago
        > how far will Ukraine integration into the EU This should be only between Ukraine and EU. Appeasement rarely works.
  - saiya-jin 4y ago
    If they did it in Afghanistan, utterly losing and achieving nothing (at least good for them), they can do it again. Especially if its all their fault and incompetence and self-caused harm. Why should rest of the world babysit some mobster maniac's ego so his feelings are not hurt when he is killing around is beyond me. You understand he will do it again and again, until he cannot or he is dead. Lets work on the former part for now by draining his military of any capabilities.
polotics 4y ago
Who is "they" in this dialectic? The Russian people definitely deserves a future. They could even win freedom from corruption, also win democracy, and even pluralism, thanks to the outcome of this war. They deserve no less. Vladimir and his cronies deserves a hefty wake-up call...
- rasz 4y ago
  russian people should do something about it then. Iron curtain didnt fell on it own, there were years of strikes involving bloody clashes with military. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassi... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union... Similar things were happening in Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution and other European countries under Soviet occupation.
- emptyfile 4y ago
  Here in the real world no one gets anything because they "deserve it". If they want a future they have to fight for it.