34 ms·

Putin orders partial Russian mobilisation, warns West over nuclear blackmail

80 points by ls15 4y ago

r721 4y ago
>“We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience,” Putin said. https://apnews.com/f64f9c91f24fc81bc8cc65e8bc7748f4 https://apnews.com/f64f9c91f24fc81bc8cc65e8bc7748f4
- rasz 4y ago
  Almost every single ru male under 60 is in the reserve. Thats what state-mandated 12-24 month conscription is all about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_Russia#Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_Russia#Russia
  - foverzar 4y ago
    Why did you ommit "relevant experience" and "military specialty" part? My military specialty is "computer operator", lol. Also, 24 months is something from two decades ago.
    - rasz 4y ago
      How about a 32 old IT specialist with no experience whatsoever? https://twitter.com/dasha_reports/status/1572929082014277633 https://twitter.com/dasha_reports/status/1572929082014277633 >Victor Bugreev, 32, he is an IT specialist for Sberbank in Moscow, he received a summons yesterday: "I have never served, I have not done military service, I do not have a military specialty, I do not have a military department. I'll go, what to do. Or a criminal case."
    - rasz 4y ago
      Because I lived under russian occupation and know how those things work first hand. Their official propaganda newspaper is still called Pravda (truth). Do you really expect this particular part to be true among the sea of other lies? This is how it started https://www.dw.com/en/how-ukraine-separatists-are-mass-conscripting-anyone-of-fighting-age/a-61608760 https://www.dw.com/en/how-ukraine-separatists-are-mass-consc... and this is how its going https://vk.com/wall-58177259_1120387 https://vk.com/wall-58177259_1120387 (kidnapped off the street straight to military) >Also, 24 months is something from two decades ago. Exactly the people they will force back to military now, up to 60 old. Here you go from st.Petersburg https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1572522854608171012/photo/1 https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/15725228546081710... 42 year old with 2 year mandatory service record.
      - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
        > Because I lived under russian occupation I'm not quite sure where you are from, but unless you are from Ukraine, it is likely you lived under soviet occupation. In this sense, Russia itself is still under it, too.
        trasz 4y ago
        No, same way India wasn't under Commonwealth occupation. "Soviet Union" was the colonial empire, but individual countries were occupied by Russia.
        Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
        This is nonsense. Soviet union was a multinational state run by a very ideological party that suppressed any nationalistic sentiment. In all its 70 years it was led by Russians for maybe 16 or 17 years (Lenin, barely, then Khrushchev, Andropov and Gorbachev).
        trasz 4y ago
        And all the racism and colonialism magically reappeared in 1990?
ls15 4y ago
So is the plan to annex Donbas and then declare all combat in Donbass an attack on Russia as a justification for further escalation?
- vegai_ 4y ago
  Dunno why that would change things since Ukraine has already made counter-strikes into actual Russian territory (Belgorod). But then again, Putin lives in make-believe land and the target for these outbursts is probably the population of Russia, not the west.
  - nf-x 4y ago
    Bilgorod is actually Ukrainian territory. They are just fighting back what commies took a while ago.
    - donalhunt 4y ago
      Despite many unsourced updates to the Wikipedia article for the city, I've come to conclusion that it was once part of the Mongol empire. Without verifiable sources it seems hard to state more than that. :( Let's keep this discussion informative and cordial please.
    - lamp987 4y ago
      Youre coping.
  - Hamuko 4y ago
    They've also (seemingly) made strikes into the recently-annexed Crimea, but that was still during the phase when Russia liked to enjoy that everything was fine and that their men were just tripping over some explosives.
    - vegai_ 4y ago
      Yes, although Crimea is not Russian territory.
the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
Surely this has to have significant ramifications to the day to day operations of the country. If people who are drafted refuse then someone needs to decide on the outcome of that. If they draft vital workers of the economy it they will need to fill the vacancies. It’s almost impossible to judge the outcome of this within the country. They must have prepared that for quite some time.
- ls15 4y ago
  > If people who are drafted refuse then someone needs to decide on the outcome of that. Looks like the jail time for that just gets doubled: https://inshorts.com/en/news/russian-state-duma-okays-tougher-punishment-for-deserting-soldiers-1663695362545 https://inshorts.com/en/news/russian-state-duma-okays-toughe... > According to the bill, deserting a military unit during martial law would attract up to 10 years in jail. Under the present law, desertion by a soldier will attract a sentence of five years.
- wodenokoto 4y ago
  I'm not sure what the details and exact definitions of words like "draft" and "conscription" are, but the article says that it is only former professional soldiers who are being "mobilized". To me that sounds more like activating a reserve, rather than drafting. Although that probably doesn't change the fact that most of those 300.000 people are productive members of the Russian economy.
  - xhruso00 4y ago
    One cannot trust those numbers. They claim 6000 russian soldiers lost and they call 300 000 backup? Doesn't make sense at all. Keeping the numbers low is to calm down public opinion.
  - filoleg 4y ago
    To clarify the conscription part, it has been mandatory for all males 18-27 (or 28? I forgot+they keep changing that age +-1) since a long time ago. Medical exceptions and a few others apply, if Russia isn't struggling for numbers, otherwise the exceptions are routinely ignored.
Klaster_1 4y ago
Today I'm getting the same adrenaline rush as on February 24th. While I managed to leave Russia, not all of my friends, relatives, colleagues and acquaintances managed to secure themselves. I am very concerned for what lies ahead for them and hope to assist them as much as my resources allow.
- helge9210 4y ago
  - dijit 4y ago
    They're talking about friends and family, not support of the current regime/administration of Russia. There are Russians who support the regime for sure; but making sure your family are not suffering should never be framed as shameful.
    - blooalien 4y ago
      It's really kinda sad that this should even have to be explained to anyone…
  - ls15 4y ago
    Helping friends and family to survive in a hostile environment is no aggressive act and should not be framed as such.
    - blitzar 4y ago
      - dijit 4y ago
        There's a better way to stand up for justice than to punish those who aren't quick to condemn. It's also an assumption that they're not loudly condemning the current practices. It's still heartless to abandon your family because they're across a border. I don't really care what you have to say if you can't grasp basic morality such as this.
Pinegulf 4y ago
Clear sign that initial assault has failed. Time to change tactics.
roenxi 4y ago
This seems like a fairly predictable response at this point. The West has managed to pour enough weapons into the Ukraine that I gather Russia is being pressured. So the escalation spiral continues to wind up. This continues to be very scary. The West's strategy here is stupid to the point where full scale mobilisation and war in Europe seems possible. This could have just been an Iraq 2.0.
- trasz 4y ago
  >The West's strategy here is stupid As opposed to the strategy of appeasing Russia, which resulted in the war we have now? Look at the numbers: half of Russia’s army is gone. Western armies, apart from Ukraine, hadn’t even entered the conflict.
  - blub 4y ago
    We cannot win against Russia and we cannot win against China. The performance of their regular army is not deciding, because they have an immense nuclear arsenal. It seems to me that we’re sticking our heads in the sand and either like to joke that their nukes don’t work, or that they won’t dare use them.
    - scandinavian 4y ago
      > or that they won’t dare use them. What's to be gained by starting a nuclear war with the entire world? Or are you calling them stupid (China and Russia)?
      - m000 4y ago
        > What's to be gained by starting a nuclear war with the entire world? Less than a year ago, the question was: What's to be gained by invading Ukraine? Putin is not stupid to start a war with nothing to gain.
        foverzar 4y ago
trasz 4y ago
See https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1572270599535214598 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1572270599535214598 for a pretty good description of where it goes from here.
- megous 4y ago
  That's not even scratching the surface. Don't forget they are mobilizing up to a million men when the winter is coming. Any logistical slipups (lack of fuel or food) and these will be freezing to death dying of hunger on the front. And rabid babushkas who are cheering Russias working age male surplus population to go die and be maimed on the front are not exactly thinking much either about who pays for their own retirement.
SteveBinockel 4y ago
At what point will Russians just rise up? Surely they don't all want to go into the army, if you are being forced to fight why not fight against Putin
jiggawatts 4y ago
Russia has 37 million males aged 15-54, which are the extreme ends of what would be considered for mobilisation. Its total workforce is 75 million. Combined with the ~100K Russian casualties, ~200K combatants, if Putin adds another 150K then this will impact just 1.2% of its combat-age male population. The reduction in workforce is just 0.6%, but it is actually less than that, because most of the initially deployed soldiers were professional soldiers already, and weren't technically part of the workforce when the war started. So just considering the new conscripts, this is more like a 0.2% reduction in the total workforce. I'm putting this here because I see a lot of discussions where people think that this will somehow "decimate" Russia's population, undermine their economy, strip the workforce bare, or whatever. For comparison, their ageing demographics and low birth rate means that their population is shrinking by 86K people per month anyway. See: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/29/russias-population-decline-hits-record-rate-a78437 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/29/russias-population... Realistically, the effect of the sanctions is 100x greater than the additional mobilisation.
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  As a Russian, who (unfortunately) currently resides in Russia, I can say that so far sanctions had approximately zero effect on everyday lives. No food shortages, no good shortages, no medicine shortages. Planes are still flying (within borders). So it appears that the economy is more robust than I have originally thought - in February I was expecting a near collapse by now, but there are no signs of it yet.
  - rasz 4y ago
    Yes. You can buy any car you want, the prices didnt budge, stock market is strong, and mcdonalds never ran out of something as basic as fries.
    - nora-puchreiner 4y ago
      > Yes. You can buy any car you want, No. In the US, if you want, you can buy and legally own a tank or other military vehicle. But in Russia you still can't, despite all the mobilizations :(
Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
- rasz 4y ago
  - dang 4y ago
    Please do not take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. It's not what HN is for and we ban such accounts. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- adampk 4y ago
  This is a novel take. Russia won’t conscript you if you are on vacation?
  - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
    They can't conscript you or jail you if you are on the right side of the border. It is better to be a fugitive than a cellmate or being coerced into conscription.
- dang 4y ago
  Please do not take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. It's not what HN is for and we ban such accounts. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
    I'm sorry, but I didn't intend it to be a nationalistic flamewar. I'm debating (rather bitterly, true) that some populistic policies enacted by some states are extremely counter-productive and in fact support Putin's war effort instead of hurting it.
aliyfarah 4y ago
I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging. And it’s not just arm chair generals on Twitter, but high ranking government officials in the West, and experienced generals like David Patreus (who today said Russian defeat was inevitable). How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Or would never use its nuclear weapons? Up until now Russia has been waging this war with its arms tied behind its back and now that the West has artificially prolonged this war with its endless shipment of weapons and intelligence, Russia has been forced to escalate. The United States was responsible for instigating this war in the first place, by giving false confidence to Ukraine and encouraging them to play hard ball with Russia with regards to NATO membership etc. Now they are drip feeding Ukraine with weapons, just enough to keep the conflict going, ostensibly to make Russia lick its wounds and retreat in humiliation? Not sure if its a deliberate policy but the US is in effect destroying Ukraine & giving it a slow, painful death. Zelensky has huge responsibility for this war as well. His refusal to take serious Putin's threat of war, despite months of warning with solid intelligence, right up until the cruise missiles started landing, should be evidence enough of his incompetence & that he is well above his head. Now he is trying to make up for his incompetence by needlessly sacrificing tens of thousand of his own citizens lives. I genuinely find it quite repulsing how he is constantly on TV, be it Oscars, sporting events, begging for arms & aid 24/7. He has been begging for tanks, fighter jets, helicopters & even submarines. He basically wants to command the US military minus the personnel. How delusional can one get? Many find him courageous but I really think he is a narcissist who really thinks his playing a role in a movie. The US has found just the right person who is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. "Today, my life is beautiful. I believe that I am needed. I feel it is the most important meaning in life" - Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Feb 24, 2022
- Hamuko 4y ago
  >I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging. >How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? We must have a different concept of "conventional war" if the assumption is that Russia is going to start nuking Ukraine to the ground. >Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine? Also, the responsibility for this war is absolutely on Russia, for deciding that Ukraine is a part of Russia through either a puppet government or through direct invasion.
dang 4y ago
All: please make your substantive points thoughtfully, respectfully (yes), and without nationalistic flamebait. We ban accounts that post the latter. If you're going to comment, please make sure you're up on the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. Note this one: "Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."
IYasha 4y ago
[flagged]
sazz 4y ago
Apparently, neither Russia nor "the Western alliance" is willing to settle this war. Again and again I see on German television that when someone tries to outline the current situation rationally, they are immediately bludgeoned by an emotional opposition. It seems that we Germans have recently become more and more disgusted with putting things into perspective. Whereas it used to be a punishable offence to relativise the Holocaust (which was a very good general consensus for a long time due to it's impact), it now seems to have been extended to Corona, the Ukraine war and, in fact, any other topic. Actually, one is not allowed to relativise anything anymore - otherwise one is immediately considered an insensitive egoist. Understanding for the opposing side? Then you are a troll on Putin's side. Conductors and singers are dismissed and declared persona non grata for not explicitly opposing Putin. As if only people with the correct attitude are allowed to perform art. Haven't we been through this before? I grew up with Babylon 5, and have virtually absorbed its philosophy. "Never start a fight, but always finish it" was one of those phrases. We should have learned from the history of the First World War that more soldiers and more weapons do not solve wars. Not without a clear strategy to achieve certain realistic goals. So well-paid journalists, who never leave their desks, sit in the talk rounds and demand more heavy artillery. Because of the dead children and so on. But is even one of them asked what specific military goal is to be achieved? To bring Russia to its knees? That they should never be able to make territorial claims again? Wakey, wakey! We have been through this before. Especially Germany. Didn't end too well, by the way. And I really seriously ask myself whether anyone wants to end this war at all. Or whether the feigned naivety is just to hide the fact that they just want to be the winner again. And everyone else should get a bloody nose because this time we are on the right side. As always.
- amai 4y ago
  > But is even one of them asked what specific military goal is to be achieved? To bring Russia to its knees? That they should never be able to make territorial claims again? The specific goal is set by the government of Ukraine, not by journalists. And these goals are: "return of all Ukrainian territory, comprehensive multilateral security guarantees, reparations, and war crimes charges." (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-goals-demands-nato-russia-lines-collapse-kharkiv-counter-attack-1742009 https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-goals-demands-nato-russ...) And Germany promised to support Ukraine as long as it takes: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-we-will-keep-up-support-ukraine-long-it-takes-2022-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-we-will... I think that is quite clear.

80 points by ls15 4y ago

r721 4y ago

>“We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces have a certain military specialty and relevant experience,” Putin said. https://apnews.com/f64f9c91f24fc81bc8cc65e8bc7748f4 https://apnews.com/f64f9c91f24fc81bc8cc65e8bc7748f4

rasz 4y ago
Almost every single ru male under 60 is in the reserve. Thats what state-mandated 12-24 month conscription is all about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_Russia#Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_Russia#Russia
- foverzar 4y ago
  Why did you ommit "relevant experience" and "military specialty" part? My military specialty is "computer operator", lol. Also, 24 months is something from two decades ago.
  - rasz 4y ago
    How about a 32 old IT specialist with no experience whatsoever? https://twitter.com/dasha_reports/status/1572929082014277633 https://twitter.com/dasha_reports/status/1572929082014277633 >Victor Bugreev, 32, he is an IT specialist for Sberbank in Moscow, he received a summons yesterday: "I have never served, I have not done military service, I do not have a military specialty, I do not have a military department. I'll go, what to do. Or a criminal case."
  - rasz 4y ago
    Because I lived under russian occupation and know how those things work first hand. Their official propaganda newspaper is still called Pravda (truth). Do you really expect this particular part to be true among the sea of other lies? This is how it started https://www.dw.com/en/how-ukraine-separatists-are-mass-conscripting-anyone-of-fighting-age/a-61608760 https://www.dw.com/en/how-ukraine-separatists-are-mass-consc... and this is how its going https://vk.com/wall-58177259_1120387 https://vk.com/wall-58177259_1120387 (kidnapped off the street straight to military) >Also, 24 months is something from two decades ago. Exactly the people they will force back to military now, up to 60 old. Here you go from st.Petersburg https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1572522854608171012/photo/1 https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/15725228546081710... 42 year old with 2 year mandatory service record.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
      > Because I lived under russian occupation I'm not quite sure where you are from, but unless you are from Ukraine, it is likely you lived under soviet occupation. In this sense, Russia itself is still under it, too.
      - trasz 4y ago
        No, same way India wasn't under Commonwealth occupation. "Soviet Union" was the colonial empire, but individual countries were occupied by Russia.
        Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
        This is nonsense. Soviet union was a multinational state run by a very ideological party that suppressed any nationalistic sentiment. In all its 70 years it was led by Russians for maybe 16 or 17 years (Lenin, barely, then Khrushchev, Andropov and Gorbachev).
        trasz 4y ago
        And all the racism and colonialism magically reappeared in 1990?

ls15 4y ago

So is the plan to annex Donbas and then declare all combat in Donbass an attack on Russia as a justification for further escalation?

vegai_ 4y ago
Dunno why that would change things since Ukraine has already made counter-strikes into actual Russian territory (Belgorod). But then again, Putin lives in make-believe land and the target for these outbursts is probably the population of Russia, not the west.
- nf-x 4y ago
  Bilgorod is actually Ukrainian territory. They are just fighting back what commies took a while ago.
  - donalhunt 4y ago
    Despite many unsourced updates to the Wikipedia article for the city, I've come to conclusion that it was once part of the Mongol empire. Without verifiable sources it seems hard to state more than that. :( Let's keep this discussion informative and cordial please.
  - lamp987 4y ago
    Youre coping.
- Hamuko 4y ago
  They've also (seemingly) made strikes into the recently-annexed Crimea, but that was still during the phase when Russia liked to enjoy that everything was fine and that their men were just tripping over some explosives.
  - vegai_ 4y ago
    Yes, although Crimea is not Russian territory.

the_mitsuhiko 4y ago

Surely this has to have significant ramifications to the day to day operations of the country. If people who are drafted refuse then someone needs to decide on the outcome of that. If they draft vital workers of the economy it they will need to fill the vacancies. It’s almost impossible to judge the outcome of this within the country. They must have prepared that for quite some time.

ls15 4y ago
> If people who are drafted refuse then someone needs to decide on the outcome of that. Looks like the jail time for that just gets doubled: https://inshorts.com/en/news/russian-state-duma-okays-tougher-punishment-for-deserting-soldiers-1663695362545 https://inshorts.com/en/news/russian-state-duma-okays-toughe... > According to the bill, deserting a military unit during martial law would attract up to 10 years in jail. Under the present law, desertion by a soldier will attract a sentence of five years.
wodenokoto 4y ago
I'm not sure what the details and exact definitions of words like "draft" and "conscription" are, but the article says that it is only former professional soldiers who are being "mobilized". To me that sounds more like activating a reserve, rather than drafting. Although that probably doesn't change the fact that most of those 300.000 people are productive members of the Russian economy.
- xhruso00 4y ago
  One cannot trust those numbers. They claim 6000 russian soldiers lost and they call 300 000 backup? Doesn't make sense at all. Keeping the numbers low is to calm down public opinion.
- filoleg 4y ago
  To clarify the conscription part, it has been mandatory for all males 18-27 (or 28? I forgot+they keep changing that age +-1) since a long time ago. Medical exceptions and a few others apply, if Russia isn't struggling for numbers, otherwise the exceptions are routinely ignored.

Klaster_1 4y ago

Today I'm getting the same adrenaline rush as on February 24th. While I managed to leave Russia, not all of my friends, relatives, colleagues and acquaintances managed to secure themselves. I am very concerned for what lies ahead for them and hope to assist them as much as my resources allow.

helge9210 4y ago
- dijit 4y ago
  They're talking about friends and family, not support of the current regime/administration of Russia. There are Russians who support the regime for sure; but making sure your family are not suffering should never be framed as shameful.
  - blooalien 4y ago
    It's really kinda sad that this should even have to be explained to anyone…
- ls15 4y ago
  Helping friends and family to survive in a hostile environment is no aggressive act and should not be framed as such.
  - blitzar 4y ago
    - dijit 4y ago
      There's a better way to stand up for justice than to punish those who aren't quick to condemn. It's also an assumption that they're not loudly condemning the current practices. It's still heartless to abandon your family because they're across a border. I don't really care what you have to say if you can't grasp basic morality such as this.

Pinegulf 4y ago

Clear sign that initial assault has failed. Time to change tactics.

roenxi 4y ago

This seems like a fairly predictable response at this point. The West has managed to pour enough weapons into the Ukraine that I gather Russia is being pressured. So the escalation spiral continues to wind up. This continues to be very scary. The West's strategy here is stupid to the point where full scale mobilisation and war in Europe seems possible. This could have just been an Iraq 2.0.

trasz 4y ago
>The West's strategy here is stupid As opposed to the strategy of appeasing Russia, which resulted in the war we have now? Look at the numbers: half of Russia’s army is gone. Western armies, apart from Ukraine, hadn’t even entered the conflict.
- blub 4y ago
  We cannot win against Russia and we cannot win against China. The performance of their regular army is not deciding, because they have an immense nuclear arsenal. It seems to me that we’re sticking our heads in the sand and either like to joke that their nukes don’t work, or that they won’t dare use them.
  - scandinavian 4y ago
    > or that they won’t dare use them. What's to be gained by starting a nuclear war with the entire world? Or are you calling them stupid (China and Russia)?
    - m000 4y ago
      > What's to be gained by starting a nuclear war with the entire world? Less than a year ago, the question was: What's to be gained by invading Ukraine? Putin is not stupid to start a war with nothing to gain.
      - foverzar 4y ago

trasz 4y ago

See https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1572270599535214598 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1572270599535214598 for a pretty good description of where it goes from here.

megous 4y ago
That's not even scratching the surface. Don't forget they are mobilizing up to a million men when the winter is coming. Any logistical slipups (lack of fuel or food) and these will be freezing to death dying of hunger on the front. And rabid babushkas who are cheering Russias working age male surplus population to go die and be maimed on the front are not exactly thinking much either about who pays for their own retirement.

SteveBinockel 4y ago

At what point will Russians just rise up? Surely they don't all want to go into the army, if you are being forced to fight why not fight against Putin

jiggawatts 4y ago

Russia has 37 million males aged 15-54, which are the extreme ends of what would be considered for mobilisation. Its total workforce is 75 million. Combined with the ~100K Russian casualties, ~200K combatants, if Putin adds another 150K then this will impact just 1.2% of its combat-age male population. The reduction in workforce is just 0.6%, but it is actually less than that, because most of the initially deployed soldiers were professional soldiers already, and weren't technically part of the workforce when the war started. So just considering the new conscripts, this is more like a 0.2% reduction in the total workforce. I'm putting this here because I see a lot of discussions where people think that this will somehow "decimate" Russia's population, undermine their economy, strip the workforce bare, or whatever. For comparison, their ageing demographics and low birth rate means that their population is shrinking by 86K people per month anyway. See: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/29/russias-population-decline-hits-record-rate-a78437 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/29/russias-population... Realistically, the effect of the sanctions is 100x greater than the additional mobilisation.

Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
As a Russian, who (unfortunately) currently resides in Russia, I can say that so far sanctions had approximately zero effect on everyday lives. No food shortages, no good shortages, no medicine shortages. Planes are still flying (within borders). So it appears that the economy is more robust than I have originally thought - in February I was expecting a near collapse by now, but there are no signs of it yet.
- rasz 4y ago
  Yes. You can buy any car you want, the prices didnt budge, stock market is strong, and mcdonalds never ran out of something as basic as fries.
  - nora-puchreiner 4y ago
    > Yes. You can buy any car you want, No. In the US, if you want, you can buy and legally own a tank or other military vehicle. But in Russia you still can't, despite all the mobilizations :(

Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago

rasz 4y ago
- dang 4y ago
  Please do not take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. It's not what HN is for and we ban such accounts. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
adampk 4y ago
This is a novel take. Russia won’t conscript you if you are on vacation?
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  They can't conscript you or jail you if you are on the right side of the border. It is better to be a fugitive than a cellmate or being coerced into conscription.
dang 4y ago
Please do not take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. It's not what HN is for and we ban such accounts. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  I'm sorry, but I didn't intend it to be a nationalistic flamewar. I'm debating (rather bitterly, true) that some populistic policies enacted by some states are extremely counter-productive and in fact support Putin's war effort instead of hurting it.

aliyfarah 4y ago

I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging. And it’s not just arm chair generals on Twitter, but high ranking government officials in the West, and experienced generals like David Patreus (who today said Russian defeat was inevitable). How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Or would never use its nuclear weapons? Up until now Russia has been waging this war with its arms tied behind its back and now that the West has artificially prolonged this war with its endless shipment of weapons and intelligence, Russia has been forced to escalate. The United States was responsible for instigating this war in the first place, by giving false confidence to Ukraine and encouraging them to play hard ball with Russia with regards to NATO membership etc. Now they are drip feeding Ukraine with weapons, just enough to keep the conflict going, ostensibly to make Russia lick its wounds and retreat in humiliation? Not sure if its a deliberate policy but the US is in effect destroying Ukraine & giving it a slow, painful death. Zelensky has huge responsibility for this war as well. His refusal to take serious Putin's threat of war, despite months of warning with solid intelligence, right up until the cruise missiles started landing, should be evidence enough of his incompetence & that he is well above his head. Now he is trying to make up for his incompetence by needlessly sacrificing tens of thousand of his own citizens lives. I genuinely find it quite repulsing how he is constantly on TV, be it Oscars, sporting events, begging for arms & aid 24/7. He has been begging for tanks, fighter jets, helicopters & even submarines. He basically wants to command the US military minus the personnel. How delusional can one get? Many find him courageous but I really think he is a narcissist who really thinks his playing a role in a movie. The US has found just the right person who is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. "Today, my life is beautiful. I believe that I am needed. I feel it is the most important meaning in life" - Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Feb 24, 2022

Hamuko 4y ago
>I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging. >How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? We must have a different concept of "conventional war" if the assumption is that Russia is going to start nuking Ukraine to the ground. >Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine? Also, the responsibility for this war is absolutely on Russia, for deciding that Ukraine is a part of Russia through either a puppet government or through direct invasion.

dang 4y ago

All: please make your substantive points thoughtfully, respectfully (yes), and without nationalistic flamebait. We ban accounts that post the latter. If you're going to comment, please make sure you're up on the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. Note this one: "Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."

IYasha 4y ago

[flagged]

sazz 4y ago

Apparently, neither Russia nor "the Western alliance" is willing to settle this war. Again and again I see on German television that when someone tries to outline the current situation rationally, they are immediately bludgeoned by an emotional opposition. It seems that we Germans have recently become more and more disgusted with putting things into perspective. Whereas it used to be a punishable offence to relativise the Holocaust (which was a very good general consensus for a long time due to it's impact), it now seems to have been extended to Corona, the Ukraine war and, in fact, any other topic. Actually, one is not allowed to relativise anything anymore - otherwise one is immediately considered an insensitive egoist. Understanding for the opposing side? Then you are a troll on Putin's side. Conductors and singers are dismissed and declared persona non grata for not explicitly opposing Putin. As if only people with the correct attitude are allowed to perform art. Haven't we been through this before? I grew up with Babylon 5, and have virtually absorbed its philosophy. "Never start a fight, but always finish it" was one of those phrases. We should have learned from the history of the First World War that more soldiers and more weapons do not solve wars. Not without a clear strategy to achieve certain realistic goals. So well-paid journalists, who never leave their desks, sit in the talk rounds and demand more heavy artillery. Because of the dead children and so on. But is even one of them asked what specific military goal is to be achieved? To bring Russia to its knees? That they should never be able to make territorial claims again? Wakey, wakey! We have been through this before. Especially Germany. Didn't end too well, by the way. And I really seriously ask myself whether anyone wants to end this war at all. Or whether the feigned naivety is just to hide the fact that they just want to be the winner again. And everyone else should get a bloody nose because this time we are on the right side. As always.

amai 4y ago
> But is even one of them asked what specific military goal is to be achieved? To bring Russia to its knees? That they should never be able to make territorial claims again? The specific goal is set by the government of Ukraine, not by journalists. And these goals are: "return of all Ukrainian territory, comprehensive multilateral security guarantees, reparations, and war crimes charges." (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-goals-demands-nato-russia-lines-collapse-kharkiv-counter-attack-1742009 https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-goals-demands-nato-russ...) And Germany promised to support Ukraine as long as it takes: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-we-will-keep-up-support-ukraine-long-it-takes-2022-08-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-scholz-we-will... I think that is quite clear.