5 ms·

Counterpoint, heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices (much how the expected lifespan of an incandescent bulb is independent of its previous usage

by hansvm 4y ago

Counterpoint, heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices (much how the expected lifespan of an incandescent bulb is independent of its previous usage), and to the extent it would matter the effect is probably dwarfed by not being stuck in a gaming PC full of dust and experiencing constant thermal shock as the games ramp up and down. To the pizza car analogy, when I was in that game I put a hard 60k miles/yr on such vehicles, but I also regularly change the oil, keep great tires and brakes on them, replace bushings and other suspension components at the first sign of issue, etc... Partly because driving that many miles makes issues easy to spot due to familiarity and temporal coherence and partly because it is cheaper to fix many such things sooner rather than later after they've jostled something else out of place. Nobody ever asked if it was a pizza car. I listed it as well maintained and got top dollar each time because it was and their inspections showed that to be true.

vineyardmike 4y ago
Counter counter point, chips break down over time even though they’re solid state. The flow of electricity through a chip will slowly degrade the metal traces inside it. At the nanometer scale, it doesn’t take much to ruin a logic gate. This is called electromigration. You can care for that car (or chip) all you want, but chips aren’t cars. It’s a slow process, and may not happen on the timescale of mining, but it happens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-dependent_gate_oxide_breakdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-dependent_gate_oxide_brea...
AceJohnny2 4y ago
> heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices It kinda does. The effects are small, but increase as the fab node gets smaller. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromigration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromigration
falcolas 4y ago
> heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices Sorry, but this is pretty much incorrect. Copper migrates, even in solid state devices, and those copper migrations cause breaks and shorts, which cause errors and failures. The smaller the scale, the faster this happens. There is absolutely a MTBF even for solid-state devices. This entire slide deck is worth the perusal, if only for the "whoah, that actually happens?!" moments. But here's a relevant slide for this claim: https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/ObservedFailures37.html https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/Observed... The money quote: "Commercial semiconductor road maps show component reliability timescales are being reduced to 5-7 years." (with attribution) Another fascinating slide is this one, which shows how an IC can start to have a timing issue after being in service for a time. https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/ObservedFailures35.html https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/Observed...
- latchkey 4y ago
  We've definitely seen 'memory go bad'. But, our failure rate is in the single digits, across a huge sample set across multiple years and in relatively extreme conditions (4 seasons, outdoors). If you're buying something for like half of retail and rolling the dice on it, I think it is a fair bet. Even if you only get 1-2 more years out of a card that has been used before (for any purpose), then you've done well.
  - d_tr 4y ago
    Half of retail (which is still high) for a mining card with expired warranty? No thanks.
    - latchkey 4y ago
      Ok, $10, but you have to pay for shipping and min order is 10k. ;-) For clarity, because @derac is confused below... this is a joke. Hence the winky face.
  - derac 4y ago
    Your incentive is to propagandize this point. you have 100k+ cards to sell on the market, by your own admission.
    - latchkey 4y ago
      It is amazing how crazy HN can get. I'm not propagandizing anything. If we sell them for pennies on the dollar or e-waste them, doesn't matter to me. We ROI'd these cards already.
      - derac 4y ago
        Whoa crazy to point out someone's conflict of interest. CrAzY You are sitting on 10m+ of stock and you don't care about the money. OK bud guess I must be schizophrenic, damn. You are literally trying to sell your cards to a sister comment... "Ok, $10, but you have to pay for shipping and min order is 10k. ;-)"
ithinkso 4y ago
> (much how the expected lifespan of an incandescent bulb is independent of its previous usage) Either I'm reading this sentence incorrectly or there is something else I don't understand. How can that statement be true?
- rowanG077 4y ago
  It's possible if you have a completely flat failure rate. For every time unit spend it has x% failure rate. An example is a piece of rock on the side of the road. Everyday it has a small chance to be smashed by a car. But that chance doesn't increase or decrease over time. Unless external factors change Whether it's true for light bulbs I don't know.
- HenriTEL 4y ago
  I guess the bulb does not degrade over time, it just break at some point when some random events occur.
  - ithinkso 4y ago
    I don't think that's true, the filament evaporates (sublimes?, sublimates?) from the heat and eventually it is too thin to support itself and breaks. That's how I always understood the main failure mode of incadescent bulbs and that's why the above statement confuses me

by hansvm 4y ago

vineyardmike 4y ago

Counter counter point, chips break down over time even though they’re solid state. The flow of electricity through a chip will slowly degrade the metal traces inside it. At the nanometer scale, it doesn’t take much to ruin a logic gate. This is called electromigration. You can care for that car (or chip) all you want, but chips aren’t cars. It’s a slow process, and may not happen on the timescale of mining, but it happens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_aging https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-dependent_gate_oxide_breakdown https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-dependent_gate_oxide_brea...

AceJohnny2 4y ago

> heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices It kinda does. The effects are small, but increase as the fab node gets smaller. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromigration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromigration

falcolas 4y ago

> heavy use mostly doesn't apply to solid-state devices Sorry, but this is pretty much incorrect. Copper migrates, even in solid state devices, and those copper migrations cause breaks and shorts, which cause errors and failures. The smaller the scale, the faster this happens. There is absolutely a MTBF even for solid-state devices. This entire slide deck is worth the perusal, if only for the "whoah, that actually happens?!" moments. But here's a relevant slide for this claim: https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/ObservedFailures37.html https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/Observed... The money quote: "Commercial semiconductor road maps show component reliability timescales are being reduced to 5-7 years." (with attribution) Another fascinating slide is this one, which shows how an IC can start to have a timing issue after being in service for a time. https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/ObservedFailures35.html https://c3.ndc.nasa.gov/dashlink/static/media/other/Observed...

latchkey 4y ago
We've definitely seen 'memory go bad'. But, our failure rate is in the single digits, across a huge sample set across multiple years and in relatively extreme conditions (4 seasons, outdoors). If you're buying something for like half of retail and rolling the dice on it, I think it is a fair bet. Even if you only get 1-2 more years out of a card that has been used before (for any purpose), then you've done well.
- d_tr 4y ago
  Half of retail (which is still high) for a mining card with expired warranty? No thanks.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    Ok, $10, but you have to pay for shipping and min order is 10k. ;-) For clarity, because @derac is confused below... this is a joke. Hence the winky face.
- derac 4y ago
  Your incentive is to propagandize this point. you have 100k+ cards to sell on the market, by your own admission.
  - latchkey 4y ago
    It is amazing how crazy HN can get. I'm not propagandizing anything. If we sell them for pennies on the dollar or e-waste them, doesn't matter to me. We ROI'd these cards already.
    - derac 4y ago
      Whoa crazy to point out someone's conflict of interest. CrAzY You are sitting on 10m+ of stock and you don't care about the money. OK bud guess I must be schizophrenic, damn. You are literally trying to sell your cards to a sister comment... "Ok, $10, but you have to pay for shipping and min order is 10k. ;-)"

ithinkso 4y ago

> (much how the expected lifespan of an incandescent bulb is independent of its previous usage) Either I'm reading this sentence incorrectly or there is something else I don't understand. How can that statement be true?

rowanG077 4y ago
It's possible if you have a completely flat failure rate. For every time unit spend it has x% failure rate. An example is a piece of rock on the side of the road. Everyday it has a small chance to be smashed by a car. But that chance doesn't increase or decrease over time. Unless external factors change Whether it's true for light bulbs I don't know.
HenriTEL 4y ago
I guess the bulb does not degrade over time, it just break at some point when some random events occur.
- ithinkso 4y ago
  I don't think that's true, the filament evaporates (sublimes?, sublimates?) from the heat and eventually it is too thin to support itself and breaks. That's how I always understood the main failure mode of incadescent bulbs and that's why the above statement confuses me