4 ms·

Deadline or not, I think you still want a prediction of when something lands for many reasons. In my experience most deadlines are set based on initial estimate

by proc0 4y ago

Deadline or not, I think you still want a prediction of when something lands for many reasons. In my experience most deadlines are set based on initial estimates (which often include technical feedback), but then those estimates get locked in because of advertising/marketing and setting customer expectations. In my opinion the biggest problem is not understanding that estimates are constantly changing based on continuous change of information as the project is worked on. Also, I've rarely been in a team that takes the time to define a unit of work, which is relative to the stream of work that is done. Breaking things down into work units allows consistent measurement relative to who works on it, and then allows for pretty accurate relative estimates, which is good enough to predict completion dates. I suspect this is harder to manage, but if done right, predicting the completion date accurately (despite any deadline) is a necessary step to then speed up that process.

commandlinefan 4y ago
> you still want a prediction of when something lands That's the problem. Of course you want that. Everybody would want that. Our lives would be easier if we always knew exactly when something would be finished and how much it would cost. What you don't seem to recognize is that if predictions could be made with that kind of accuracy... you could be replaced with a spreadsheet. The only reason you're still around is because our work is inherently unpredictable.
- proc0 4y ago
  Right, but eventually you have to lock it in, or there would be no point in announcing a release date or letting your customers know when to expect it. While I like the idea of never worrying about any kind of completion date, I would think it's better for business to set customer expectations. Of course it backfires if you don't hit that date, but not having one could also backfire if when the project is done no one cares to use it anymore. For me it starts with predicting accurately units of work, regardless of desired completion date. Then work with that to speed things up if needed, and use that information for estimation.

by proc0 4y ago

commandlinefan 4y ago

> you still want a prediction of when something lands That's the problem. Of course you want that. Everybody would want that. Our lives would be easier if we always knew exactly when something would be finished and how much it would cost. What you don't seem to recognize is that if predictions could be made with that kind of accuracy... you could be replaced with a spreadsheet. The only reason you're still around is because our work is inherently unpredictable.

proc0 4y ago
Right, but eventually you have to lock it in, or there would be no point in announcing a release date or letting your customers know when to expect it. While I like the idea of never worrying about any kind of completion date, I would think it's better for business to set customer expectations. Of course it backfires if you don't hit that date, but not having one could also backfire if when the project is done no one cares to use it anymore. For me it starts with predicting accurately units of work, regardless of desired completion date. Then work with that to speed things up if needed, and use that information for estimation.