4 ms·

When I finished the podcast I was not at all convinced of his innocence. For me was 50/50 or even 60/40 against innocence. Just my takeaway/opinion of course.

When I finished the podcast I was not at all convinced of his innocence. For me was 50/50 or even 60/40 against innocence. Just my takeaway/opinion of course.. EDIT However, reading both of the AP News articles on this now, it does serve to sway me more toward his innocence. Crazy that the prosecutors withheld this at that time.. Par for the course unfortunately I guess. Seems as though the SA office is trying to do the right thing now, and appears they will continue investigating, and hopefully if appropriate, may deem that the next best step is to drop his case fully and prosecute the other now-uncovered suspects.

yieldcrv 4y ago
I think the wrong bar is being evaluated, its important to get the correct person off the streets. I was not satisfied - and am still not satisfied - that any of this is occurring. So that exempts Adnan Syed as well and means he should be released.
advantager 4y ago
I remember feeling similarly. I also don't remember feeling as though he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
- hinkley 4y ago
  > guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. How the American Legal System is supposed to work, not as a way to punish people who 'look guilty'.
oconnor663 4y ago
> For me was 50/50 or even 60/40 against innocence. Totally, but the standard for conviction is "beyond a reasonable doubt". By that standard, a 40% chance of innocence means "not guilty". I don't know whether the law has ever translated "reasonable doubt" into a specific percentage, but I have to imagine it's less than 10%?
- indigodaddy 4y ago
  I don’t disagree. I guess it’s kind of like an additional psychological bias that one plays into when he’s already been convicted and in prison.
- antognini 4y ago
  Alexander Volokh wrote a tongue-in-cheek law review article titled "N Guilty Men" that tried to quantify that percentage: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=11412 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=11412
- closewith 4y ago
  It's obviously subjective, but a YouGov poll in the UK found that 47% of pelt required 99% accuracy or higher to be considered beyond reasonable doubt. Only 12% set the bar below 90%. Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/02/how-large-can-reasonable-doubt-be https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/1...
  - ImprobableTruth 4y ago
    20% said they would require 100% certainty, which is equivalent to stating that not even the most obviously guilty person in existence deserves to be convicted. I'd posit that this is more so evidence that the general population's knowledge of probability is abysmal.
    - peteradio 4y ago
      Can you statistically evaluate such a thing? Its all black swan.
      - ImprobableTruth 4y ago
        If you look at it in a bayesian way this is not an issue. "I can't put a number to it" would definitely be a legitimate answer, but "100%" is just wrong.
legitster 4y ago
I was 50/50 after the podcast but Jay's interview after the podcast heavily swayed me towards Adnan's guilt. Jay was't a suspect, but definitely knew about it and where the body was. He gave conflicting testimony to the police because he was dealing drugs out of his grandmother's house and didn't want himself or his family in prison. (Using these hostile testimonies to undermine the official one entered in court is very misleading) But he had no reason to continue lying after all these years.
- deleted 4y ago
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- asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
  I don’t remember whether Jay had an alibi. Did he? One question I always had is why he was not a suspect.
  - chasedehan 4y ago
    I’ve always had that as a question as well. I never remember hearing an alibi or why he wasn’t a suspect.
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
      Then again, it is most often the boyfriend. I think when I initially listened to Serial I didn't realize that fact to quite the degree I know it now. That doesn't make him legally guilty, but it does seem to be the Bayesian center of likelihood.
      - reggedtorespond 4y ago
        She had a different boyfriend when she was murdered, so by your logic shouldn't it be Clinedinst in prison and Syed free?
        asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
TheCondor 4y ago
I think that's part of the recipe.. All the editing and cleverness of This American Life, a crime and then enough open questions to let you feel one way or the other and wanting more. I don't remember my exact feelings on his guilt or not but I felt really strongly that the system hadn't worked correctly. Makes you wonder how many less charming guys are in prison because they didn't get a fair defense. The other thing that I also strongly remember was that the prosecution, the victim's family and some of the police were 100% convinced of his guilt. I don't know if it's good or bad but Serial showed that clearly and it created doubt; there was clearly some evidence that suggested misconduct but then the state steadfastly seemed to ignore that. I don't know what it is, maybe suburban white man fear or something but being wrongly convicted of something like that is a strong and resonating fear for some of us.
- deleted 4y ago
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deleted 4y ago
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yieldcrv 4y ago

I think the wrong bar is being evaluated, its important to get the correct person off the streets. I was not satisfied - and am still not satisfied - that any of this is occurring. So that exempts Adnan Syed as well and means he should be released.

advantager 4y ago

I remember feeling similarly. I also don't remember feeling as though he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

hinkley 4y ago
> guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. How the American Legal System is supposed to work, not as a way to punish people who 'look guilty'.

oconnor663 4y ago

> For me was 50/50 or even 60/40 against innocence. Totally, but the standard for conviction is "beyond a reasonable doubt". By that standard, a 40% chance of innocence means "not guilty". I don't know whether the law has ever translated "reasonable doubt" into a specific percentage, but I have to imagine it's less than 10%?

indigodaddy 4y ago
I don’t disagree. I guess it’s kind of like an additional psychological bias that one plays into when he’s already been convicted and in prison.
antognini 4y ago
Alexander Volokh wrote a tongue-in-cheek law review article titled "N Guilty Men" that tried to quantify that percentage: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=11412 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=11412
closewith 4y ago
It's obviously subjective, but a YouGov poll in the UK found that 47% of pelt required 99% accuracy or higher to be considered beyond reasonable doubt. Only 12% set the bar below 90%. Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/02/how-large-can-reasonable-doubt-be https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/1...
- ImprobableTruth 4y ago
  20% said they would require 100% certainty, which is equivalent to stating that not even the most obviously guilty person in existence deserves to be convicted. I'd posit that this is more so evidence that the general population's knowledge of probability is abysmal.
  - peteradio 4y ago
    Can you statistically evaluate such a thing? Its all black swan.
    - ImprobableTruth 4y ago
      If you look at it in a bayesian way this is not an issue. "I can't put a number to it" would definitely be a legitimate answer, but "100%" is just wrong.

legitster 4y ago

I was 50/50 after the podcast but Jay's interview after the podcast heavily swayed me towards Adnan's guilt. Jay was't a suspect, but definitely knew about it and where the body was. He gave conflicting testimony to the police because he was dealing drugs out of his grandmother's house and didn't want himself or his family in prison. (Using these hostile testimonies to undermine the official one entered in court is very misleading) But he had no reason to continue lying after all these years.

deleted 4y ago
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asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
I don’t remember whether Jay had an alibi. Did he? One question I always had is why he was not a suspect.
- chasedehan 4y ago
  I’ve always had that as a question as well. I never remember hearing an alibi or why he wasn’t a suspect.
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago
    Then again, it is most often the boyfriend. I think when I initially listened to Serial I didn't realize that fact to quite the degree I know it now. That doesn't make him legally guilty, but it does seem to be the Bayesian center of likelihood.
    - reggedtorespond 4y ago
      She had a different boyfriend when she was murdered, so by your logic shouldn't it be Clinedinst in prison and Syed free?
      - asdfasgasdgasdg 4y ago

TheCondor 4y ago

I think that's part of the recipe.. All the editing and cleverness of This American Life, a crime and then enough open questions to let you feel one way or the other and wanting more. I don't remember my exact feelings on his guilt or not but I felt really strongly that the system hadn't worked correctly. Makes you wonder how many less charming guys are in prison because they didn't get a fair defense. The other thing that I also strongly remember was that the prosecution, the victim's family and some of the police were 100% convinced of his guilt. I don't know if it's good or bad but Serial showed that clearly and it created doubt; there was clearly some evidence that suggested misconduct but then the state steadfastly seemed to ignore that. I don't know what it is, maybe suburban white man fear or something but being wrongly convicted of something like that is a strong and resonating fear for some of us.

deleted 4y ago
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deleted 4y ago

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