4 ms·

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

throwawaymaths 4y ago
Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      Invasions were early 2014, book with "prediction" was published November 2014.
  - buscoquadnary 4y ago
    After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record. I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has panned out, he also predicted where the political parties are going right now in the US and why they seem so out of whack.
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      He predicted the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict thats been going on for decades? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_pr...
      - throwawaymaths 4y ago
        He's claiming it will get hot, and less proxied, so that is distinctly something that has not happened yet.
  - MR4D 4y ago
    “While ever-shifting economic, political, and military pressure pries the Ukrainian state apart, the Russians will begin ... Once those areas are pacified the Russians will return to Ukraine, “rescuing” those in the Russified east and…” Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=vn-BAwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22accidental+superpower%22+%22Ukraine%22+russia&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&source=gb_mobile_search&ovdme=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjO2vmelqL6AhUKg2oFHQE3CRYQ6AF6BAgJEAM#v=onepage&q=Ukraine&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=vn-BAwAAQBAJ&printsec=fron... EDIT: I had an incomplete copy paste on the link so I corrected it
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Yeah, he has been accurate. But he's also been screaming that China is going to collapse within this year, which seems very far fetched. Do agree with his broad thesis though. America is in a very good spot.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  I also predicted the invasion of Ukraine. So did the US intelligence service last summer. So did the state department when trump was trying to extort zelensky over military aid for a hunter Biden investigation. Not a hard prediction to make at all after no one gave a shit about crimea, especially given putins longstanding goal of Soviet reunification.

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

throwawaymaths 4y ago

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    Invasions were early 2014, book with "prediction" was published November 2014.
- buscoquadnary 4y ago
  After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record. I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has panned out, he also predicted where the political parties are going right now in the US and why they seem so out of whack.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    He predicted the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict thats been going on for decades? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_pr...
    - throwawaymaths 4y ago
      He's claiming it will get hot, and less proxied, so that is distinctly something that has not happened yet.
- MR4D 4y ago
  “While ever-shifting economic, political, and military pressure pries the Ukrainian state apart, the Russians will begin ... Once those areas are pacified the Russians will return to Ukraine, “rescuing” those in the Russified east and…” Source: https://books.google.com/books?id=vn-BAwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22accidental+superpower%22+%22Ukraine%22+russia&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&source=gb_mobile_search&ovdme=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjO2vmelqL6AhUKg2oFHQE3CRYQ6AF6BAgJEAM#v=onepage&q=Ukraine&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=vn-BAwAAQBAJ&printsec=fron... EDIT: I had an incomplete copy paste on the link so I corrected it
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Yeah, he has been accurate. But he's also been screaming that China is going to collapse within this year, which seems very far fetched. Do agree with his broad thesis though. America is in a very good spot.
colinmhayes 4y ago
I also predicted the invasion of Ukraine. So did the US intelligence service last summer. So did the state department when trump was trying to extort zelensky over military aid for a hunter Biden investigation. Not a hard prediction to make at all after no one gave a shit about crimea, especially given putins longstanding goal of Soviet reunification.