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Great book. I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nation
by JPKab 4y ago
Great book.
I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nations like China which lack a culture of immigration have extremely predictable demographic booms and busts, and Zeihan is spot on with those. He also hits on the reality of how dependent most nations, especially China, are on imports that pass through oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy.
- throwawaymaths 4y agoTo be fair the us navy hasn't completely detached in the way that he expects... Yet. Shipping harassment hasn't appreciably gone up... Yet. It's also possible that cargo ships will arm themselves against pirates, which will increase the cost of shipping but maybe not as much as the most dire predictions.
- chernevik 4y agoI suspect the point of "oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy" is "shipping lanes they cannot secure FROM the US Navy". There is no way for a cargo ship to arm itself against submarines.
- throwawaymaths 4y agoI think the outcome of the US navy torpedoing civilian ships of a national adversary is highly unlikely, unless 1) we were actually at war with them or 2) they are doing something generally accepted to be illegal -- like Chinese fishing boats turning off transponders and fishing in us territory. or 3) sanctions running The only way I see the landscape changing meaningfully in the direction you suggest (cargo ships going up against seafarers they are not able to defend themselves from) is if letters of marque were reinstated. At least one proposal has been floated -- and when we all stop laughing about it I grant that it might become a thing
- ethbr0 4y agoGiven today's low cargo crew counts, it isn't crazy to think about the calculus of sinking cargo ships vs fighting an actual war, in order to prove ones seriousness. Say, because Taiwan was being invaded? And in the form of a blockade, of course.
- Aerroon 4y agoBut isn't sinking a civilian vessel itself an express path to war? The RMS Lusitania and the US's entry into WW1 spring to mind.
- SturgeonsLaw 4y agoIf the nations involved want it to be one, sure. There have been incidents of militaries shooting down passenger jets, which were all but swept under the rug.
- avn2109 4y agoThis sounds plausible but can you provide examples/links to wiki pages etc?
- throwawaymaths 4y agoOff the top of my head: Korean air lines flight over Russia, us shooting down Iranian jet in the gulf, Russia shooting down Malaysian air over Ukraine, Iran shooting down a Ukrainian jet over itself. I presume gp means Not swept under the rug in terms of information suppression, swept under the rug in terms of very little diplomatic fallout
- ethbr0 4y agoAlso, the multiple Iranian/Israeli ships that have mysteriously sunk in the last few years.
- 4y ago