5 ms·

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-Beginning-Audiobook/B09CS5KBV1 https://www.audible.com/p

by adamc 4y ago

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-Beginning-Audiobook/B09CS5KBV1 https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-...

JPKab 4y ago
Great book. I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nations like China which lack a culture of immigration have extremely predictable demographic booms and busts, and Zeihan is spot on with those. He also hits on the reality of how dependent most nations, especially China, are on imports that pass through oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy.
- throwawaymaths 4y ago
  To be fair the us navy hasn't completely detached in the way that he expects... Yet. Shipping harassment hasn't appreciably gone up... Yet. It's also possible that cargo ships will arm themselves against pirates, which will increase the cost of shipping but maybe not as much as the most dire predictions.
  - chernevik 4y ago
    I suspect the point of "oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy" is "shipping lanes they cannot secure FROM the US Navy". There is no way for a cargo ship to arm itself against submarines.
    - throwawaymaths 4y ago
      I think the outcome of the US navy torpedoing civilian ships of a national adversary is highly unlikely, unless 1) we were actually at war with them or 2) they are doing something generally accepted to be illegal -- like Chinese fishing boats turning off transponders and fishing in us territory. or 3) sanctions running The only way I see the landscape changing meaningfully in the direction you suggest (cargo ships going up against seafarers they are not able to defend themselves from) is if letters of marque were reinstated. At least one proposal has been floated -- and when we all stop laughing about it I grant that it might become a thing
      - ethbr0 4y ago
        Given today's low cargo crew counts, it isn't crazy to think about the calculus of sinking cargo ships vs fighting an actual war, in order to prove ones seriousness. Say, because Taiwan was being invaded? And in the form of a blockade, of course.
        Aerroon 4y ago
        But isn't sinking a civilian vessel itself an express path to war? The RMS Lusitania and the US's entry into WW1 spring to mind.
        SturgeonsLaw 4y ago
        If the nations involved want it to be one, sure. There have been incidents of militaries shooting down passenger jets, which were all but swept under the rug.
        avn2109 4y ago
        This sounds plausible but can you provide examples/links to wiki pages etc?
        throwawaymaths 4y ago
        Off the top of my head: Korean air lines flight over Russia, us shooting down Iranian jet in the gulf, Russia shooting down Malaysian air over Ukraine, Iran shooting down a Ukrainian jet over itself. I presume gp means Not swept under the rug in terms of information suppression, swept under the rug in terms of very little diplomatic fallout
        ethbr0 4y ago
        Also, the multiple Iranian/Israeli ships that have mysteriously sunk in the last few years.
        4y ago
spaceman_2020 4y ago
I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.
- throwawaymaths 4y ago
  Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.
      - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        Invasions were early 2014, book with "prediction" was published November 2014.
    - buscoquadnary 4y ago
      After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record. I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has panned out, he also predicted where the political parties are going right now in the US and why they seem so out of whack.

by adamc 4y ago

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-Beginning-Audiobook/B09CS5KBV1 https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-...

JPKab 4y ago

Great book. I used to work in the Pentagon, and while we never took Zeihan's talks without a grain of salt, directionally he tends to be very accurate. Nations like China which lack a culture of immigration have extremely predictable demographic booms and busts, and Zeihan is spot on with those. He also hits on the reality of how dependent most nations, especially China, are on imports that pass through oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy.

throwawaymaths 4y ago
To be fair the us navy hasn't completely detached in the way that he expects... Yet. Shipping harassment hasn't appreciably gone up... Yet. It's also possible that cargo ships will arm themselves against pirates, which will increase the cost of shipping but maybe not as much as the most dire predictions.
- chernevik 4y ago
  I suspect the point of "oceanic shipping lanes they have no ability to control or secure without the US Navy" is "shipping lanes they cannot secure FROM the US Navy". There is no way for a cargo ship to arm itself against submarines.
  - throwawaymaths 4y ago
    I think the outcome of the US navy torpedoing civilian ships of a national adversary is highly unlikely, unless 1) we were actually at war with them or 2) they are doing something generally accepted to be illegal -- like Chinese fishing boats turning off transponders and fishing in us territory. or 3) sanctions running The only way I see the landscape changing meaningfully in the direction you suggest (cargo ships going up against seafarers they are not able to defend themselves from) is if letters of marque were reinstated. At least one proposal has been floated -- and when we all stop laughing about it I grant that it might become a thing
    - ethbr0 4y ago
      Given today's low cargo crew counts, it isn't crazy to think about the calculus of sinking cargo ships vs fighting an actual war, in order to prove ones seriousness. Say, because Taiwan was being invaded? And in the form of a blockade, of course.
      - Aerroon 4y ago
        But isn't sinking a civilian vessel itself an express path to war? The RMS Lusitania and the US's entry into WW1 spring to mind.
        SturgeonsLaw 4y ago
        If the nations involved want it to be one, sure. There have been incidents of militaries shooting down passenger jets, which were all but swept under the rug.
        avn2109 4y ago
        This sounds plausible but can you provide examples/links to wiki pages etc?
        throwawaymaths 4y ago
        Off the top of my head: Korean air lines flight over Russia, us shooting down Iranian jet in the gulf, Russia shooting down Malaysian air over Ukraine, Iran shooting down a Ukrainian jet over itself. I presume gp means Not swept under the rug in terms of information suppression, swept under the rug in terms of very little diplomatic fallout
        ethbr0 4y ago
        Also, the multiple Iranian/Israeli ships that have mysteriously sunk in the last few years.
        4y ago

spaceman_2020 4y ago

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

throwawaymaths 4y ago
Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year. I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Do you have a source for his Ukraine invasion claims? The last time someone mentioned this, they said he'd predicted they'd invade in 2014, which is after they'd invaded and annexed Crimea.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Well, they did invade Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014. I don't know if that was after his prediction, though.
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      Invasions were early 2014, book with "prediction" was published November 2014.
  - buscoquadnary 4y ago
    After I got turned on to Petar Zeihan the first thing I did was went back and watched his older talks, after all plenty of people can make good sounding predictions, first you want to see what he was saying before to see his track record. I found a talk form 2018 in which he said there are going to be 3 major bush wars of global import, Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi Arabia, and China-Indian Ocean. So far Ukraine has panned out, he also predicted where the political parties are going right now in the US and why they seem so out of whack.