8 ms·

Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now. It’s seems like we had a price spike in December/Jan for various reasons and now things

Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now. It’s seems like we had a price spike in December/Jan for various reasons and now things have stabilized. If trend continues it seems we should be back in normal yoy inflation rates shortly once we start comparing against that post spike floor

colinmhayes 4y ago
Core was .6% last month, pretty horrendous after July looked good.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Nothing against you in particular, but all the "inflation complainers" were using CPI (not core-CPI) back in January/February to talk about Fed inaction. Now that we're 9 months later, with the Fed hiking rates, suddenly those _SAME PEOPLE_ are now complaining that the Fed rates are hiking too much. ------- That being said, I agree with you. Core-CPI exists for a reason, and its a better measure of long-term trends. Oil/food prices change dramatically, while they're important real world measures of cost of living, they change too quickly to be useful. We should typically ignore oil/food prices and focus on other costs of living to try to glean the longer-term trend. But what's even worse than using "CPI" or "core-CPI", is when people switch between the two to make a focused political argument, rather than an analysis into the state of the economy. Stay consistent damn it.
- fennecfoxen 4y ago
  Yeah, this isn't just a one-time transient price spike that happened months ago. August fuel prices fell a lot (10.6%), a gift! — but core inflation erased all that progress, with a 0.1% month-to-month rise in the CPI overall. Food's up 0.8% in a month. Rent was up 0.7%. Cars were up 0.8%. We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.
  - landemva 4y ago
    > fuel prices falling 10% again next month. Mid-term elections are approaching and gas pump prices are an easy talking point. With SPR releases, why won't USA fuel prices drop?
    - fennecfoxen 4y ago
      Okay, you've convinced me. Now how about the month after that?
      - landemva 4y ago
        No idea. Which circus tribe will be in charge?
        endtime 4y ago
        Probably not the one who can make the SPR never run out.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    The problem with core inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. Rent especially. If a landlord increases the rent on Jan 1 but your contract rolls over on Dec 1 that increase shows up in the December numbers. And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.
refurb 4y ago
Chart 1 lays it out. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Inflation isn't increasing much in August - relatively to July, but July was still high. That graph needs to go negative (a decrease in the inflation rate each month) for a long time before we get back to something "normal" like 2-3% inflation.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  I think you're misreading the chart. My understanding is that 12 months of 0 means a year over year inflation rate of 0, not the same amount of inflation as the year before.
  - ninkendo 4y ago
    Correct, the chart is a rate of change in the CPI itself. 0 on the chart means the CPI hasn't changed, ie. no inflation that month.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- scld 4y ago
  That chart going negative would be deflation, not a decrease in inflation.
  - refurb 4y ago
    The chart is the first derivative of the inflation rate.
consp 4y ago
Around here there was a minor stationary period in may and june but was up before has gone up again since that, ymmv according to where you live.
bilsbie 4y ago
Meesa be thinking yousa confusing the second derivative with the first derivative.
foobarian 4y ago
Don't forget that the Covid stuff finally seems to have settled to some kind of new "normal," and that it's a once-in-a-century event that is going to be very hard to make any comparisons to.
- groby_b 4y ago
  ... assuming there are no further variants, and hand-waving long covid away, sure, it's settled. I think we'll find that just like reports of Mark Twain's death, rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated.
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    > rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated. Only if people are stupid enough to repeat the last two years of nonsense. Take away all the fear mongering and testing and you probably wouldn't even notice covid was a thing. You'd get sick like you always do and just shrug it off as "that thing that was going around" like we all did in 2019...
    - groby_b 4y ago
      It is the (#2/#3/#4 depending on study) leading cause of death. We're currently at around ~150K dead/year - about 5 times the average rate of flu, about 3 times a really bad flu year. It has significantly affected workforce participation, with a large disability burden. You'd notice. Unless you're somewhat dense.
      - conductr 4y ago
        Not that I like it but, I happen to think it's just a new normal as well and if everyone starts behaving as if it's normal then the impact on global economics when compared to a similar period should be rather normal. Continuing lockdowns and other things that impact supply chains/production are examples of behaving like it's not normal. They will likely continue to some degree despite my opinions.
ParksNet 4y ago
The USA is emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a rate of 1 million barrels per day. Crude is typically extracted from the ground at about 15 million per day by that country. When the SPR draining is finished (for midterms), upward pressure on energy prices globally will resume.
taolegal 4y ago
> Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now Inflation compounds and we've been at relatively high inflation for a while now. Of course the Biden admin will want to just normalize this sustained inflation. People are effectively getting around a month of salary stolen from them. Transaction cost of a new job hurts most people & depresses wage growth (the obvious side-effect of monetary expansionism). It's fair to say that we won't experience deflation since no central bank will allow that. And our high debt load prevents raising interest rates anywhere near the necessary amount, if you compare it to Volcker. The only responses they seem to have, in practice, are: print tons of money or print slightly less than that. We're trapped in a debt spiral and my guess is that the world suffers enormously from central planning (artificially low interest rates in the modern era in order to finance government disasters) and the US suffers less than everyone else because of their global hegemony (reserve status), economy & geography.

colinmhayes 4y ago

Core was .6% last month, pretty horrendous after July looked good.

dragontamer 4y ago
Nothing against you in particular, but all the "inflation complainers" were using CPI (not core-CPI) back in January/February to talk about Fed inaction. Now that we're 9 months later, with the Fed hiking rates, suddenly those _SAME PEOPLE_ are now complaining that the Fed rates are hiking too much. ------- That being said, I agree with you. Core-CPI exists for a reason, and its a better measure of long-term trends. Oil/food prices change dramatically, while they're important real world measures of cost of living, they change too quickly to be useful. We should typically ignore oil/food prices and focus on other costs of living to try to glean the longer-term trend. But what's even worse than using "CPI" or "core-CPI", is when people switch between the two to make a focused political argument, rather than an analysis into the state of the economy. Stay consistent damn it.
fennecfoxen 4y ago
Yeah, this isn't just a one-time transient price spike that happened months ago. August fuel prices fell a lot (10.6%), a gift! — but core inflation erased all that progress, with a 0.1% month-to-month rise in the CPI overall. Food's up 0.8% in a month. Rent was up 0.7%. Cars were up 0.8%. We probably can't rely on fuel prices falling 10% again next month.
- landemva 4y ago
  > fuel prices falling 10% again next month. Mid-term elections are approaching and gas pump prices are an easy talking point. With SPR releases, why won't USA fuel prices drop?
  - fennecfoxen 4y ago
    Okay, you've convinced me. Now how about the month after that?
    - landemva 4y ago
      No idea. Which circus tribe will be in charge?
      - endtime 4y ago
        Probably not the one who can make the SPR never run out.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  The problem with core inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. Rent especially. If a landlord increases the rent on Jan 1 but your contract rolls over on Dec 1 that increase shows up in the December numbers. And yes gas has already fallen 10% in September. From $4.087 in August to $3.677 today.

refurb 4y ago

Chart 1 lays it out. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Inflation isn't increasing much in August - relatively to July, but July was still high. That graph needs to go negative (a decrease in the inflation rate each month) for a long time before we get back to something "normal" like 2-3% inflation.

colinmhayes 4y ago
I think you're misreading the chart. My understanding is that 12 months of 0 means a year over year inflation rate of 0, not the same amount of inflation as the year before.
- ninkendo 4y ago
  Correct, the chart is a rate of change in the CPI itself. 0 on the chart means the CPI hasn't changed, ie. no inflation that month.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
scld 4y ago
That chart going negative would be deflation, not a decrease in inflation.
- refurb 4y ago
  The chart is the first derivative of the inflation rate.

consp 4y ago

Around here there was a minor stationary period in may and june but was up before has gone up again since that, ymmv according to where you live.

bilsbie 4y ago

Meesa be thinking yousa confusing the second derivative with the first derivative.

foobarian 4y ago

Don't forget that the Covid stuff finally seems to have settled to some kind of new "normal," and that it's a once-in-a-century event that is going to be very hard to make any comparisons to.

groby_b 4y ago
... assuming there are no further variants, and hand-waving long covid away, sure, it's settled. I think we'll find that just like reports of Mark Twain's death, rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated.
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  > rumors of the end of the pandemic are greatly exaggerated. Only if people are stupid enough to repeat the last two years of nonsense. Take away all the fear mongering and testing and you probably wouldn't even notice covid was a thing. You'd get sick like you always do and just shrug it off as "that thing that was going around" like we all did in 2019...
  - groby_b 4y ago
    It is the (#2/#3/#4 depending on study) leading cause of death. We're currently at around ~150K dead/year - about 5 times the average rate of flu, about 3 times a really bad flu year. It has significantly affected workforce participation, with a large disability burden. You'd notice. Unless you're somewhat dense.
    - conductr 4y ago
      Not that I like it but, I happen to think it's just a new normal as well and if everyone starts behaving as if it's normal then the impact on global economics when compared to a similar period should be rather normal. Continuing lockdowns and other things that impact supply chains/production are examples of behaving like it's not normal. They will likely continue to some degree despite my opinions.

ParksNet 4y ago

The USA is emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a rate of 1 million barrels per day. Crude is typically extracted from the ground at about 15 million per day by that country. When the SPR draining is finished (for midterms), upward pressure on energy prices globally will resume.

taolegal 4y ago

> Month to month inflation has been flat or near flat for some months now Inflation compounds and we've been at relatively high inflation for a while now. Of course the Biden admin will want to just normalize this sustained inflation. People are effectively getting around a month of salary stolen from them. Transaction cost of a new job hurts most people & depresses wage growth (the obvious side-effect of monetary expansionism). It's fair to say that we won't experience deflation since no central bank will allow that. And our high debt load prevents raising interest rates anywhere near the necessary amount, if you compare it to Volcker. The only responses they seem to have, in practice, are: print tons of money or print slightly less than that. We're trapped in a debt spiral and my guess is that the world suffers enormously from central planning (artificially low interest rates in the modern era in order to finance government disasters) and the US suffers less than everyone else because of their global hegemony (reserve status), economy & geography.