It's not the odds of the fourth flip, it's the difference between four flips and a fourth flip. Look upstream, you'll find someone (you perhaps? I don't care w

It's not the odds of the fourth flip, it's the difference between four flips and a fourth flip. Look upstream, you'll find someone (you perhaps? I don't care who) who doesn't realise whether the current La Niña situation is equivalent to a fourth-flip or a four-flips situation. A common problem in statistics, in my experience: People sort of understand two statistical statements, but then apply the wrong one to the real-world situation they're in.