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Putin’s Energy War with Europe Seems to Falter

59 points by vwoolf 4y ago

helsinkiandrew 4y ago
https://archive.ph/3vYzy https://archive.ph/3vYzy
dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could we look in the mirror? It's against the very core of who we are. Of course people are concerned, but the solutions are non-Russian sources of energy exclusively.
- Helmut10001 4y ago
  Correct, the best way to unite a group is to attack its core values - a sure way to bring people together. If we, as Europeans, allow Russia to proceed, just to stay warm in winter, we'd give up on our core values, which are what makes us a democratic Europe.
  - eurasiantiger 4y ago
    Which is why Europe (and the US) have been instituted with so many divisive movements in the recent decade.
    - mellavora 4y ago
      - redscareone 4y ago
        mellavora 4y ago
        hmm, an instant reply, from a newly created account, leading with a patently false accusation followed by extreme examples which don't match reality. yes, looks like typical move of Russian-sponsored actors. Thanks, redscareone, that's exactly the kind of proof my argument needed.
        redscareone 4y ago
        dang 4y ago
        It's against the HN guidelines to post like this here, regardless of how wrong someone else is or how bad their comments are. We've banned that troll account, but we also ban accounts that break the site guidelines in the way you just did, so please don't do it again. "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, bots, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
        eurasiantiger 4y ago
        >we’ll look at the data Just to check, did you look at the data in this case?
        dang 4y ago
        Yes.
  - POPOSYS 4y ago
    Then Europeans will have to fight anti-demcratic movements in Hungary, Poland, Sweden, Italy, Spain, wait... more and more of Europe is on the list of countries where political parties with openly anti-democratic values ("illiberal democracies") are not only in parliaments, but also in governments. See recent success for "Sweden Democrats" and take a look at the votes in Italy next week. Also you have to always remember that Ursula von der Leyen could only get into her position with the help of the vote of far right - she will never be against far right for that reason alone. There is a huge theater going on re "european values" - this is not reflected by reality. E.g. the current "measures" taken against Hungary are seen as a joke.
    - the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
      Your comment is an unnecessarily long way to say "imperfect things are not perfect". Democracies are unstable and need constant defense. That's not a new thing and that will be true for a long time to come.
- prox 4y ago
  Yup, my stance as well. Russia is making an ideological mistake and just doesn’t understand the 21st century (and what we learned in the 20th)
  - redscareone 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
      I was thinking recently. Would I prefer to die in an atomic blast or live under Russian occupation? Having seen some scenes from Bucha and other places I'm inclined toward the former.
      - redscareone 4y ago
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago
  It’s a lot more complicated to be honest. There are different ways to end the conflicts and different degrees of support possible. Some European countries were in favour of pushing for peace talks far earlier but the current Ukrainian government has complete support from the USA and territorial ambition of its own. Belligerents are not into it out of the goodness of their heart you know. It’s not really about saving Ukrainian lives. It’s actually far from obvious that prolonging the war saves lives. But most of the EU has taken a very Atlantist position on this conflict and at this point it’s probably better to keep going and significantly neuter Russia.
  - ivan_gammel 4y ago
    The longer is the war the higher is the risk for the local population on occupied territories. Not only because of filtration and direct oppression by security forces, but also because of reduced access to healthcare and basic necessities like food, heating, drinking water etc. The winter is coming and the infrastructure in many cities and villages is completely destroyed. Russia does not demonstrate any intent to rebuild it in next few months. EDIT: „the longer is occupation..“ will be more correct. This is an incentive for liberation more than for negotiation.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    Peace talks earlier would maybe have saved lives, but what kind of life is it living under Russian rule? Russia is deteriorating and is apparently trying to solve it with conquest. Giving in would be like telling the police to don't disturb the mob when doing extortion, someone might get killed.
  - samus 4y ago
    Peace talks before Russia is pushed back at least to Ukraine's post-2014 borders is basically a victory for Russia, and we would have this conversation again in 5-10 years.
    - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
      Peace talks could have involved a return to post-2014 borders as a condition. At this point it’s science-fiction anyway and it’s becoming clear that Ukraine wants to take back Crimea. I don’t know nor have access to the information necessary to judge if it would have been better for the population. I just deeply dislike the narrative which pushes the Ukrainian conflict as an unambiguous fight between the forces of good and evil with a single acceptable outcome and where anything short of total support for one side to keep fighting is seen as wrong.
- vixen99 4y ago
  Expensive solution even so. In Romania (One of Europe's poorest countries) this month's price for a kilowatt is 57 cents (if you use > 300 kw per month on average). The UK price is about 36 pence per kw (41 cents).
  - kstenerud 4y ago
    It's going up to 36 cents in Germany come October. I've proactively replaced some perfectly functional but energy guzzling equipment with modern efficient ones, and it has dropped my consumption by over 30%, which will more than negate the energy cost increase. The break-even cost on them ranges from 1-4 years.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
- usedonce3rty4 4y ago
  Sure. We all remember the solidarity EU showed among its members during the previous economic crisis and during COVID. I'm sure we're all happy to support Eurocrats again in their quest to get Ukraine in NATO for no good reason at all and -like they say- fight Putin to the last Ukrainian.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    Until recently Russia was more or less neutral. Now that it showed its aggressive face and complete contempt of human lives, people are happy that it gets weaker and weaker. Yes, Ukrainians are dying, but they prefer to die rather than live under the Russian boot.
    - LudwigNagasena 4y ago
      Many Ukrainians actually tried to leave Ukraine but they were forbidden to do so under a sexist policy that forced them to join the army.
      - ptr 4y ago
        This isn’t unique to Ukraine. As an example, all Swedes are required by law to help out in case of an invasion.
- seydor 4y ago
  That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here. Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.
  - camillomiller 4y ago
    Those are not our people (non christian, non white). Ukrainians are. There is absolutely a difference that could be called racism, or more keenly it’s the fact that people are moved more by what they consider more close and similar to themselves. Just to be clear, I think that’s wrong, but I wouldn’t compare those two examples with Ukraine.
    - Mikeb85 4y ago
      Armenians are both white and Christian. They just happen to stuck in a hard place (NATO needs Turkey and Turkey is intent on finishing their centuries-long genocide of Armenians through their proxy Azerbaijan).
      - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
        And it would be interesting to see how it plays out as Russia refused to help Armenia - but it looks like the USA is siding with Armenia against Azerbaijan (and I don't believe it is just to make Erdogan angry).
        mamonster 4y ago
        IMO they are siding with Armenia at the moment only because the latest conflict actually took place on the border between the 2 countries. Once Azerbaijan restarts in NK/Artsakh proper, USA will get on the sideline.
    - jack_pp 4y ago
      I'm sorry but I share a border with Ukraine and unless you're close to the border to maybe interact with them more I'm not sure many in my own country would feel kinship with them. We're more concerned that the war is on our doorstep. I can assure you this is how most of my country feels. There are some that are virtue signaling and are very active in their support for Ukraine on social media but I've met enough people from random places to say that we don't in fact consider them our people. My only interaction with Ukrainians has been through video games and I've not seen any difference in behavior from Russians, mainly they've been selfish, refusing to speak English and just a pain to cooperate with
- paganel 4y ago
  > There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." We killed one of our former presidents at the execution wall because of rationalized food and cold in our homes. I am European. And before anyone comes in and says: "you killed Ceausescu because you wanted communism deposed!". No, we didn't, we wanted "communism" that would provide us with food in the stores and heat in our homes, "communism with a human face", as they were calling it. That's why at the 1990 general elections we overwhelmingly elected a former Communist Party apparatchik. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_execution_of_Nicolae_and_Elena_Ceau%C8%99escu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_execution_of_Nicolae...
  - Herodotus38 4y ago
    Thanks for your comment. That wikipedia article led me to watch Ceausescu's last speech and learn more about that time. It's such an interesting video because you understand the transition that he's lost control of the country (I don't want to say moment because it's probably much more complicated). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcRWiz1PhKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcRWiz1PhKU
- goatsneez 4y ago
  The myths we live by... My remark is of a philosophical nature how a culture/society creates its myths and their role in the dynamics of elites and the subjects. None of the comments, neither the original article nor on this thread cover even 1% of the reality on the origin of the crisis (energy), nor does it explain how the current EU energy market has been developed by whom and who it keeps in power, and what might be the solution (bashing Putin and puffin our proverbial chest is not it I know that much). How such medieval mentality that we display here and in general media (us vs Putin) is so pervasive gives little hope that we even care to know the truth, care for real solution, or even care for ourselves. There is just so much to unpack that there is no chance here from such a simple sentence.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    To be fair, many other HN comment sections on this topic have discussed exactly these questions, including the history of the current energy mix.
    - goatsneez 4y ago
      Im sure there were, however, from my point of view it seems (and Im not trying to fight that, just observing) the collective "mania" and false logic predicated on tribal mentality of emotions (for emotions can be controlled unlike reasoned populace) is thoroughly hammered into the populace . So, any thread, as you point out, has the nearly identical tones, emotions, and false claims.
      - actionfromafar 4y ago
        To be clear, during a hot war it can make logical sense to rally around "the cause". Sometimes the only appropriate answer to tribal, violent attack, is violence in return.
      - enjoy-your-stay 4y ago
        People are tribal and emotional about the invasion of Ukraine principally because they see that Russia is a bully, and people naturally revile bullying - even to the point that their creature comforts might be a bit disturbed when confronting the bully. I see that as a good thing.
- phtrivier 4y ago
  The comment section of every article about the energy crisis, as well as the counter of every bar, has a few people going the exact route of "we never voted for fighting for Ukraine, they're far away, this is all USA using us as pawn, why would we be cold for them, etc..." Some of those people might actually be real humans as opposed to Russian bots. So far, they seem to be a minority. The hardliners wanting us to go all in the fight are an even smaller minority. The vast majority are attentist (as usual), and governments (at least mine) are printing all the money they can to pay for energy bills, to avoid reaching a tipping point of discontentment. I agree with you that Putin might have underestimated the capacity of EU members to support each other and Ukraine against his game of on and off with gas. I also would not cry victory against "General Winter" on the 19th of September.
  - mellavora 4y ago
    General Winter's older name is King Boras.
- Traubenfuchs 4y ago
  > He doesn't know Europeans at all. A few days ago I walked past very loud protests of people demanding peace and good relationships with Russia, in Vienna.
  - kthejoker2 4y ago
    If I have learned anything about the last 6 years of listening to the increasingly unhinged contigent of paranoid Americans, it is not to overindex on how loud a position is.
- dijit 4y ago
  That is how it works. That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia. If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work. Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collect luggage at the baggage claim at the airport, meaning everyone can’t see their bags and they can’t retrieve them without a kerfuffle anyway, or in the same way that everyone rushes to get off of a plane even when they prevent someone else from leaving who then will also be unable to leave causing an awkward deadlock. People are gloriously selfish, and if you hit them in a place that affects them directly: they will turn. The only reason we’re not is because it’s too close and too devastating for us to turn our eyes away.
  - mellavora 4y ago
    You list several examples where people are selfish. In many cases, the selfishness is not inherent in people, it is a combination of the setup of the system and social norms. Using your "boarding a plane" example. Compare boarding a Ryan Air flight from Frankfurt/Hahn to a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt am Main. Specifically these two, because Germany still has a somewhat cohesive culture/cultural identity, and one which values taking care of the community over self (for example, at dinner, you ALWAYS pour water/wine for others before you fill your own glass). Ryan air. No reserved seats. Pushing, shoving, anger, aggression-- really ugly selfish behavior. Lufthansa. Reserved seats and gate crew controlling boarding. Orderly lines, no stress, people smile and let the families with children go ahead. I won't call it selfless altrusism, but it is a big step up. Swedish airports (Arlanda/Stockholm at least) paint a big yellow line about 1 meter back from the baggage belt, and people stand behind the line. Not everyone, but when someone breaks this rule they get socially disapproving looks from the others. There are two nash equilibriums. When the majority of society shows respect for others, you have a really pleasant society where showing respect/care matters. Freeloaders need to be strongly discouraged, because in the short term freeloading is "optimal". You'll get your bag faster, you'll get the seat you want on the Ryan Air flight. There is a tipping point when too many people start to freeload, happens at around 5-8%, and the system slips into the other nash equilibrium where everyone selfishly tries to grab for themself. Makes for a hellish society. The tragedy is that it is very hard to move from the selfish society to the caring society.
- misja111 4y ago
  I'm sorry but you're wrong. Only 46% of Germans want to stick to the plan of not using gas from Russia's new Northstream 2 pipeline when things will get more tough in the winter: https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage--so-stehen-die-deutschen-zu-nord-stream-2-und-den-entlastungen-32649422.html https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage-... Most of the proponents of giving in to Putin's tempting offer are coming from the right populist AFD party or from former East Germany.
  - consp 4y ago
    How on earth would they do that. The pipeline isn't even finished and work was halted quite a while ago. It an easy statement without actual probability of happening anytime soon.
  - fabian2k 4y ago
    I think the following poll is more relevant here: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer... https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-gruene-ampel-koalition-energiekrise-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-... 70% say that we should still support Ukraine even with high energy prices. And this value is stable so far. The Nordstream 2 issue is more complex, and I don't think the people answering the poll fully understand it. I also don't know how exactly it was worded in your poll. Opening NS2 would not actually change anything, we already have enough pipelines for all the gas from Russia. But it would appear as if Germany was giving in to Russian demands, that we let Russia yank us around with obviously untrue claims about why NS1 is not delivering gas. NS2 is a political issue and a very touchy subject for our allies, which is why it's dead and Germany won't revive it, that would be a dipomatic catastrophe.
    - Proven 4y ago
    - llampx 4y ago
      Germans think that they are rich enough to save the world. The same thing was visible in 2015 during the refugee crisis. The problem this winter may be not enough gas, and the high gas bills for the gas that we do use, will hit next year.
- MetalHead 4y ago
- cm2187 4y ago
  It's not just "killing ukrainians". By invading Ukraine, Putin threatens Europe. In his list of countries he thinks should be under Russian control, there are many EU countries: the Baltic states, Poland, Slovenia, etc. The invasion of Ukraine is an existential threat for the EU so it's not something on which it can back down if it has any sense.
- FeepingCreature 4y ago
  To me it's more that Russia has committed an extremely autocracy-typical error - bad information, overemphasis on territory due to reliance on resource economy, underestimating the enemy resolve - and since we've lived for many decades under the threat of the UdSSR, this is ... well, revenge would be the wrong word. I think everybody was content to let Russia be an inoffensively harmless behemoth. But if it's going to go back to its old games, and set itself up for such an opening embarrassment as it has, I think everybody is very willing to let it bleed basically arbitrarily - to some limit, since Ukraine is willing to foot the bill in bodies. So even if it hurts us economically, as long as it hurts Russia more, that's fine. This is how you stand up to a bully. Every child knows this instinctively. Putin overplayed, and now he gets to stew in it.
- mr_mitm 4y ago
  > There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." If I take a look at twitter, there are people saying exactly that [2]. Not using that phrasing, of course, but there people, even politicians (mostly from the left [0] and right [1] end of the spectrum), who demand the end of sanctions against Russia so we can have cheap gas again. [0] https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sanktionen-auf-warum-der-gaskrieg-deutschland-ruiniert.html https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sa... [1] https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukraine-krieg-news-konflikt-russland-sanktionen-verhandlungen-ard-berlin-zr-91672632.html https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukrain... [2] https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328 https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328
- Heyso 4y ago
  But it is fine killing 14k peoples in the Donbass over 8 years ? And it is fine killing russians for you I suppose ? Because "they are the bad guys". And maybe you are okay to kill peoples in middle east, because they need "democraty", they have "terrorists", and their leader is a "dictator". The very core of who we are ? Brainwashed. That's what we are.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    > But it is fine killing 14k peoples in the Donbass over 8 years? I know this statement was being repeated in Russian state TV. But the sole blame for these deaths is with Putin, because he started the killing in 2014, just like he did in 2022. Of course I don't want Russian soldiers to die, these are human beings with families etc. (although some of them seem like soulless beasts, I hope that's minority). This doesn't change the fact that it's Putin who sent them to death, not Ukrainians. None of them would have died if you hadn't attacked Ukraine.
- DarkWiiPlayer 4y ago
  > There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." Plenty of people do. Plenty of people aren't even waiting until they're code, they just say "We might be cold later, so it's fine to kill Ukrainians." Hell, many even say it's Ukrainian's own fault that they're getting killed for resisting, and our fault for enabling them by sending them weapons. Putin is counting on the rest of the world to be predominantly a bunch of immoral, spineless cowards, and he's not even that far off with that assumption.
- thrown_22 4y ago
  Europeans slept quite soundly for 40 years when it was Muslims being killed for oil. Give it one good cold winter and Ukrainians will also become sub-humans.
  - ptr 4y ago
    That's what Putin thinks at least.
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    > Europeans slept quite soundly for 40 years when it was Muslims being killed for oil. This is simply not true. When Bush decided to invade Iraq, there were biggest anti-war protests in European (and possibly world) history, gathering millions (not thousands) of people in practically all major European cities. It was wrong then, it is wrong now. We didn't "sleep quite soundly." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War
    - misja111 4y ago
      Exactly. And as a response to the well intended criticism, especially to the one from France, there was a USA boycott against French products. There was even a proposal to rename French Fries to Freedom Fries... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries But this must have slipped Muslim extremists' attention because France got their share of terrorist attacks afterwards anyway.
    - thrown_22 4y ago
      Why did you think I was talking about Middle Eastern Muslims and not African Muslims? Just look at French involvement in Africa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_involving_France_in_modern_history#Fifth_Republic_(1958%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_involving_Fran...
    - LudwigNagasena 4y ago
      What did those protests achieve?
Proven 4y ago
Ambolia 4y ago
I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?
- petrut_m 4y ago
  Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s
  - someweirdperson 4y ago
    We're stuck in between "don't want" an "can't", hoping that the problem will disappear on its own. Instead of going all-in on local sources or renewables (even power2gas would be cheaper than current import prices), with only 272 wind turbines built so far this year and the goal still being a lowly 2% land covered in turbines, we're replacing one external unreliable source with another, which includes more complicated means of transportation (ship vs. pipe). Politics and media are discussion short-term topics like continuing to run the remaining 3 nuke plants, and running a bit more on coal for electricity. Instead, short term actions should just be done, and the time for discussion used to get to some long term consensus on some viable future concepts.
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      We already have consensus on the viable long term concepts. Some people have just been trying really hard to ignore and delay the acceptance of that reality. Talking up the "chaos" and refusing to do basic things to help people when "disaster capitalists" would rather leverage the problem to funnel money to their backers is just another chapter in that fight. As is the weird focus on land coverage. No one sensible is talking about that. It has never been a problem to worry about, and it certainly isn't a metric to aim for.
- 4y ago
cm2187 4y ago
But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.
- Klaster_1 4y ago
  One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.
  - bakuninsbart 4y ago
    I don't think a different regime would have fundamentally acted differently. Russia is too big to be in the EU (Germany and France would never allow it), and too small to be a 'nice' player next to super powers. Animosity towards Russia from the side of eastern Europe was always high, and the US kept using Russia as a useful boogie man, while China is a double-daggered partner. Russia never had a lot of options, and while it would have been better for Russians living standards to "roll over and accept defeat", this would have been political suicide for any regime.
    - bestouff 4y ago
      Maybe instead of "rolling over and accepting defeat" just not starting the war would have worked ?
      - actionfromafar 4y ago
        No, I don't think so. That would only put the spotlight on how mediocre to miserable life is in Russia. Not great politically. Look at Erdogan now, vying for international cred when the economy is tanking at home. He has an election coming up where he might not be rock solid as usual. I see similarities.
    - enjoy-your-stay 4y ago
ivolimmen 4y ago
And the prices are soaring. I am currently under contract and have 'normal' price per month but my contract ends this year. A friend of mine showed me his currently price for energy (gas and electricity bill in one) and his price wend from 300 to a 1100 per month. For people having a low income this is devastating. Some people on welfare cut the gas line to avoid getting into billing issues. I fear the future.
fulafel 4y ago
Alternatively, "Putin declined further financing of his war from Europe, having filled coffers, sending climate disaster ravaged Europe into reluctant fossil energy rampdown".
diimdeep 4y ago
Who is at War exactly ? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and_subsequent_waiver_and_negotiations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and... [2] > Alternatives to Russian supplies—including LNG from the U.S. and other countries
- yread 4y ago
  Depends who you ask: Russia: NATO is at war with us. We're not at war with anyone cause it's a special military operation Everyone else: Russia and Ukraine are at war
  - diimdeep 4y ago
    > Depends who you ask: Well, you will hear some opinion, based on some perspective. Almost always it is not whole truth, but a subset of facts. But there is so much more at play. What bothers me is how western news manipulative and no one really notice. News giving everyone a subset of facts, while omitting others, not painting the entire truth. They are not lying, but at the same time manipulate opinion of a large population.
    - Heyso 4y ago
      Like lying by omission, or relaying some false news, and apologizing a day or two later (discretly when the harm is already done). It is pretty obvious our media (at least in France) serve some agenda when you look at their finances. The rich guys that detain theses medias know how to make money. Meaning it is worth keeping these medias despite what it cost them each year. And why would you keep an unprofitable business ? Unless it serves them in another manner...
      - sofixa 4y ago
        What do you mean? Le Monde, the most popular newspaper, which is billionaire owned is profitable. Le Figaro, owned by Dassault (industrial group), second best, is also profitable. TF1, most popular private TV news network, owned by Bouygues (industrial group), is also profitable. M6, second best (among the private ones), is also profitable. Le Canard enchaîné and Mediapart, two of the most hard hitting investigative medias out there, are independent. All of this is easily found public information, which conflicts with the picture you're trying to paint. Of course there are rich people pushing their agenda with media (Bolloré pushed the far-right Zemmour really hard), but it's not the norm and it's false to say that French media is kept afloat by rich people's money to push an agenda when they're all profitable.
s9w 4y ago
Heyso 4y ago
Putin tells Europe: if you want gas then open Nord Stream 2 "President Vladimir Putin on Friday denied Russia had anything to do with Europe's energy crisis, saying that if the European Union wanted more gas it should lift sanctions preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Speaking to reporters after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan, Putin blamed what he called "the green agenda" for the energy crisis, and insisted that Russia would fulfil its energy obligations. "The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-putin-says-moscow-not-blame-eu-energy-crisis-2022-09-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-putin-says-m...
- Hamuko 4y ago
  It's kinda hard to take the proposal seriously when Gazprom has been cutting the amount of gas transmitted through Nord Steam 1 throughout the year. Last I heard was that Nord Steam 1 was delivering 25% of its intended capacity.
- sam_lowry_ 4y ago
  He is obviously lying. Russia willingly cut supplies on all other pipeline to well under 20% of usual flow [1], and even those 20% are there to keep the system running. Nord Stream 2 was never put in production. Anyone vested in the topic would understand that he says nonsense. However, the TV audience back home sees a picture of a confident leader. He is also hoping that fringe influencers around the world pick his lies in their agenda. [1] https://berthub.eu/gazmon/ https://berthub.eu/gazmon/
SURA 4y ago
Is anyone in Europe? Is it true that the media said that the electricity price there has risen dozens of times?
- uomopertica 4y ago
  Ita here, we got a 3x increase w.r.t. sep 2021
- the_third_wave 4y ago
  I'm in Sweden where electricity rates have gone up markedly, especially in in the lower half of the country. Average rates have gone up ~300%-400%, peak rates up to ~2500%. Those peak rates drive up the daily rates for those who have such a contract while those who have hourly rates can end up paying more than 10 kr ( ~$1) per kWh while the rate is up there - a period of a few hours around 08.00 in the morning, 17.00 in the afternoon. Where the rates end up depends on the demand from "the continent" - mostly Germany - as well as the availability of wind to fill in the gap left by the "green" party being responsible for shutting down half of the nuclear capacity. The oil-fired peak plant in Karlshamn has been running more hours this year than in the last 10 years combined, burning up to 140.000 litres of heavy fuel oil per hour. Interestingly that peak power plant has recently released its financial figures for last year [1]. It made a profit of 297 million kr (~$28 million) while consuming 30.000 tons of fuel oil, generating ~110 GWh. This roughly translates to ~$1 profit per kg of fuel oil burned, ~$2.70 profit per generated kWh. This shows the discrepancy between the actual cost of electricity and the market rates. [1] https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vinsten-for-karlshamnsverkets-agare-upp-over-500-procent https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vinsten-for-karlshamnsverke...

59 points by vwoolf 4y ago

https://archive.ph/3vYzy https://archive.ph/3vYzy

> European governments say Mr. Putin’s gambit is to cut natural-gas supplies to inflict pain on European households and businesses so populations turn against current government policies of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine with weapons and financial aid. He's so terribly wrong. He doesn't know Europeans at all. There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." How could we look in the mirror? It's against the very core of who we are. Of course people are concerned, but the solutions are non-Russian sources of energy exclusively.

Helmut10001 4y ago
Correct, the best way to unite a group is to attack its core values - a sure way to bring people together. If we, as Europeans, allow Russia to proceed, just to stay warm in winter, we'd give up on our core values, which are what makes us a democratic Europe.
- eurasiantiger 4y ago
  Which is why Europe (and the US) have been instituted with so many divisive movements in the recent decade.
  - mellavora 4y ago
    - redscareone 4y ago
      - mellavora 4y ago
        hmm, an instant reply, from a newly created account, leading with a patently false accusation followed by extreme examples which don't match reality. yes, looks like typical move of Russian-sponsored actors. Thanks, redscareone, that's exactly the kind of proof my argument needed.
        redscareone 4y ago
        dang 4y ago
        It's against the HN guidelines to post like this here, regardless of how wrong someone else is or how bad their comments are. We've banned that troll account, but we also ban accounts that break the site guidelines in the way you just did, so please don't do it again. "Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, bots, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix=true&page=0&query=by:dang%20astroturf https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
        eurasiantiger 4y ago
        >we’ll look at the data Just to check, did you look at the data in this case?
        dang 4y ago
        Yes.
- POPOSYS 4y ago
  Then Europeans will have to fight anti-demcratic movements in Hungary, Poland, Sweden, Italy, Spain, wait... more and more of Europe is on the list of countries where political parties with openly anti-democratic values ("illiberal democracies") are not only in parliaments, but also in governments. See recent success for "Sweden Democrats" and take a look at the votes in Italy next week. Also you have to always remember that Ursula von der Leyen could only get into her position with the help of the vote of far right - she will never be against far right for that reason alone. There is a huge theater going on re "european values" - this is not reflected by reality. E.g. the current "measures" taken against Hungary are seen as a joke.
  - the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
    Your comment is an unnecessarily long way to say "imperfect things are not perfect". Democracies are unstable and need constant defense. That's not a new thing and that will be true for a long time to come.
prox 4y ago
Yup, my stance as well. Russia is making an ideological mistake and just doesn’t understand the 21st century (and what we learned in the 20th)
- redscareone 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
    I was thinking recently. Would I prefer to die in an atomic blast or live under Russian occupation? Having seen some scenes from Bucha and other places I'm inclined toward the former.
    - redscareone 4y ago
WastingMyTime89 4y ago
It’s a lot more complicated to be honest. There are different ways to end the conflicts and different degrees of support possible. Some European countries were in favour of pushing for peace talks far earlier but the current Ukrainian government has complete support from the USA and territorial ambition of its own. Belligerents are not into it out of the goodness of their heart you know. It’s not really about saving Ukrainian lives. It’s actually far from obvious that prolonging the war saves lives. But most of the EU has taken a very Atlantist position on this conflict and at this point it’s probably better to keep going and significantly neuter Russia.
- ivan_gammel 4y ago
  The longer is the war the higher is the risk for the local population on occupied territories. Not only because of filtration and direct oppression by security forces, but also because of reduced access to healthcare and basic necessities like food, heating, drinking water etc. The winter is coming and the infrastructure in many cities and villages is completely destroyed. Russia does not demonstrate any intent to rebuild it in next few months. EDIT: „the longer is occupation..“ will be more correct. This is an incentive for liberation more than for negotiation.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  Peace talks earlier would maybe have saved lives, but what kind of life is it living under Russian rule? Russia is deteriorating and is apparently trying to solve it with conquest. Giving in would be like telling the police to don't disturb the mob when doing extortion, someone might get killed.
- samus 4y ago
  Peace talks before Russia is pushed back at least to Ukraine's post-2014 borders is basically a victory for Russia, and we would have this conversation again in 5-10 years.
  - WastingMyTime89 4y ago
    Peace talks could have involved a return to post-2014 borders as a condition. At this point it’s science-fiction anyway and it’s becoming clear that Ukraine wants to take back Crimea. I don’t know nor have access to the information necessary to judge if it would have been better for the population. I just deeply dislike the narrative which pushes the Ukrainian conflict as an unambiguous fight between the forces of good and evil with a single acceptable outcome and where anything short of total support for one side to keep fighting is seen as wrong.
vixen99 4y ago
Expensive solution even so. In Romania (One of Europe's poorest countries) this month's price for a kilowatt is 57 cents (if you use > 300 kw per month on average). The UK price is about 36 pence per kw (41 cents).
- kstenerud 4y ago
  It's going up to 36 cents in Germany come October. I've proactively replaced some perfectly functional but energy guzzling equipment with modern efficient ones, and it has dropped my consumption by over 30%, which will more than negate the energy cost increase. The break-even cost on them ranges from 1-4 years.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
usedonce3rty4 4y ago
Sure. We all remember the solidarity EU showed among its members during the previous economic crisis and during COVID. I'm sure we're all happy to support Eurocrats again in their quest to get Ukraine in NATO for no good reason at all and -like they say- fight Putin to the last Ukrainian.
- dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
  Until recently Russia was more or less neutral. Now that it showed its aggressive face and complete contempt of human lives, people are happy that it gets weaker and weaker. Yes, Ukrainians are dying, but they prefer to die rather than live under the Russian boot.
  - LudwigNagasena 4y ago
    Many Ukrainians actually tried to leave Ukraine but they were forbidden to do so under a sexist policy that forced them to join the army.
    - ptr 4y ago
      This isn’t unique to Ukraine. As an example, all Swedes are required by law to help out in case of an invasion.
seydor 4y ago
That s what "european governments say" that putin thinks, not what he thinks. He is always looking for ways to use EU rules against itself, and thanks to lots of regulations, EU has tied itself in a knot here. Also i don't think you re right. Europeans were fine with "let yemenis die" , and fine with "let armenians die" becuase of oil and gas respectively.
- camillomiller 4y ago
  Those are not our people (non christian, non white). Ukrainians are. There is absolutely a difference that could be called racism, or more keenly it’s the fact that people are moved more by what they consider more close and similar to themselves. Just to be clear, I think that’s wrong, but I wouldn’t compare those two examples with Ukraine.
  - Mikeb85 4y ago
    Armenians are both white and Christian. They just happen to stuck in a hard place (NATO needs Turkey and Turkey is intent on finishing their centuries-long genocide of Armenians through their proxy Azerbaijan).
    - dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
      And it would be interesting to see how it plays out as Russia refused to help Armenia - but it looks like the USA is siding with Armenia against Azerbaijan (and I don't believe it is just to make Erdogan angry).
      - mamonster 4y ago
        IMO they are siding with Armenia at the moment only because the latest conflict actually took place on the border between the 2 countries. Once Azerbaijan restarts in NK/Artsakh proper, USA will get on the sideline.
  - jack_pp 4y ago
    I'm sorry but I share a border with Ukraine and unless you're close to the border to maybe interact with them more I'm not sure many in my own country would feel kinship with them. We're more concerned that the war is on our doorstep. I can assure you this is how most of my country feels. There are some that are virtue signaling and are very active in their support for Ukraine on social media but I've met enough people from random places to say that we don't in fact consider them our people. My only interaction with Ukrainians has been through video games and I've not seen any difference in behavior from Russians, mainly they've been selfish, refusing to speak English and just a pain to cooperate with
paganel 4y ago
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." We killed one of our former presidents at the execution wall because of rationalized food and cold in our homes. I am European. And before anyone comes in and says: "you killed Ceausescu because you wanted communism deposed!". No, we didn't, we wanted "communism" that would provide us with food in the stores and heat in our homes, "communism with a human face", as they were calling it. That's why at the 1990 general elections we overwhelmingly elected a former Communist Party apparatchik. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_execution_of_Nicolae_and_Elena_Ceau%C8%99escu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_and_execution_of_Nicolae...
- Herodotus38 4y ago
  Thanks for your comment. That wikipedia article led me to watch Ceausescu's last speech and learn more about that time. It's such an interesting video because you understand the transition that he's lost control of the country (I don't want to say moment because it's probably much more complicated). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcRWiz1PhKU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcRWiz1PhKU
goatsneez 4y ago
The myths we live by... My remark is of a philosophical nature how a culture/society creates its myths and their role in the dynamics of elites and the subjects. None of the comments, neither the original article nor on this thread cover even 1% of the reality on the origin of the crisis (energy), nor does it explain how the current EU energy market has been developed by whom and who it keeps in power, and what might be the solution (bashing Putin and puffin our proverbial chest is not it I know that much). How such medieval mentality that we display here and in general media (us vs Putin) is so pervasive gives little hope that we even care to know the truth, care for real solution, or even care for ourselves. There is just so much to unpack that there is no chance here from such a simple sentence.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  To be fair, many other HN comment sections on this topic have discussed exactly these questions, including the history of the current energy mix.
  - goatsneez 4y ago
    Im sure there were, however, from my point of view it seems (and Im not trying to fight that, just observing) the collective "mania" and false logic predicated on tribal mentality of emotions (for emotions can be controlled unlike reasoned populace) is thoroughly hammered into the populace . So, any thread, as you point out, has the nearly identical tones, emotions, and false claims.
    - actionfromafar 4y ago
      To be clear, during a hot war it can make logical sense to rally around "the cause". Sometimes the only appropriate answer to tribal, violent attack, is violence in return.
    - enjoy-your-stay 4y ago
      People are tribal and emotional about the invasion of Ukraine principally because they see that Russia is a bully, and people naturally revile bullying - even to the point that their creature comforts might be a bit disturbed when confronting the bully. I see that as a good thing.
phtrivier 4y ago
The comment section of every article about the energy crisis, as well as the counter of every bar, has a few people going the exact route of "we never voted for fighting for Ukraine, they're far away, this is all USA using us as pawn, why would we be cold for them, etc..." Some of those people might actually be real humans as opposed to Russian bots. So far, they seem to be a minority. The hardliners wanting us to go all in the fight are an even smaller minority. The vast majority are attentist (as usual), and governments (at least mine) are printing all the money they can to pay for energy bills, to avoid reaching a tipping point of discontentment. I agree with you that Putin might have underestimated the capacity of EU members to support each other and Ukraine against his game of on and off with gas. I also would not cry victory against "General Winter" on the 19th of September.
- mellavora 4y ago
  General Winter's older name is King Boras.
Traubenfuchs 4y ago
> He doesn't know Europeans at all. A few days ago I walked past very loud protests of people demanding peace and good relationships with Russia, in Vienna.
- kthejoker2 4y ago
  If I have learned anything about the last 6 years of listening to the increasingly unhinged contigent of paranoid Americans, it is not to overindex on how loud a position is.
dijit 4y ago
That is how it works. That’s what we assume will work when we apply sanctions on Russia. If it was less serious, if it wasn’t in our faces that innocent people were dying, if it was something “far away” and “complicated” and not so one-sided. It would work. Some (perhaps most) people are extremely selfish, even when it’s detrimental to themselves; you see it all the time with people not leaving enough space to collect luggage at the baggage claim at the airport, meaning everyone can’t see their bags and they can’t retrieve them without a kerfuffle anyway, or in the same way that everyone rushes to get off of a plane even when they prevent someone else from leaving who then will also be unable to leave causing an awkward deadlock. People are gloriously selfish, and if you hit them in a place that affects them directly: they will turn. The only reason we’re not is because it’s too close and too devastating for us to turn our eyes away.
- mellavora 4y ago
  You list several examples where people are selfish. In many cases, the selfishness is not inherent in people, it is a combination of the setup of the system and social norms. Using your "boarding a plane" example. Compare boarding a Ryan Air flight from Frankfurt/Hahn to a Lufthansa flight from Frankfurt am Main. Specifically these two, because Germany still has a somewhat cohesive culture/cultural identity, and one which values taking care of the community over self (for example, at dinner, you ALWAYS pour water/wine for others before you fill your own glass). Ryan air. No reserved seats. Pushing, shoving, anger, aggression-- really ugly selfish behavior. Lufthansa. Reserved seats and gate crew controlling boarding. Orderly lines, no stress, people smile and let the families with children go ahead. I won't call it selfless altrusism, but it is a big step up. Swedish airports (Arlanda/Stockholm at least) paint a big yellow line about 1 meter back from the baggage belt, and people stand behind the line. Not everyone, but when someone breaks this rule they get socially disapproving looks from the others. There are two nash equilibriums. When the majority of society shows respect for others, you have a really pleasant society where showing respect/care matters. Freeloaders need to be strongly discouraged, because in the short term freeloading is "optimal". You'll get your bag faster, you'll get the seat you want on the Ryan Air flight. There is a tipping point when too many people start to freeload, happens at around 5-8%, and the system slips into the other nash equilibrium where everyone selfishly tries to grab for themself. Makes for a hellish society. The tragedy is that it is very hard to move from the selfish society to the caring society.
misja111 4y ago
I'm sorry but you're wrong. Only 46% of Germans want to stick to the plan of not using gas from Russia's new Northstream 2 pipeline when things will get more tough in the winter: https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage--so-stehen-die-deutschen-zu-nord-stream-2-und-den-entlastungen-32649422.html https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa-blitzumfrage-... Most of the proponents of giving in to Putin's tempting offer are coming from the right populist AFD party or from former East Germany.
- consp 4y ago
  How on earth would they do that. The pipeline isn't even finished and work was halted quite a while ago. It an easy statement without actual probability of happening anytime soon.
- fabian2k 4y ago
  I think the following poll is more relevant here: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer-ukraine-energiekosten-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/220715-politbarometer... https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-gruene-ampel-koalition-energiekrise-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/politbarometer-union-... 70% say that we should still support Ukraine even with high energy prices. And this value is stable so far. The Nordstream 2 issue is more complex, and I don't think the people answering the poll fully understand it. I also don't know how exactly it was worded in your poll. Opening NS2 would not actually change anything, we already have enough pipelines for all the gas from Russia. But it would appear as if Germany was giving in to Russian demands, that we let Russia yank us around with obviously untrue claims about why NS1 is not delivering gas. NS2 is a political issue and a very touchy subject for our allies, which is why it's dead and Germany won't revive it, that would be a dipomatic catastrophe.
  - Proven 4y ago
  - llampx 4y ago
    Germans think that they are rich enough to save the world. The same thing was visible in 2015 during the refugee crisis. The problem this winter may be not enough gas, and the high gas bills for the gas that we do use, will hit next year.
MetalHead 4y ago
cm2187 4y ago
It's not just "killing ukrainians". By invading Ukraine, Putin threatens Europe. In his list of countries he thinks should be under Russian control, there are many EU countries: the Baltic states, Poland, Slovenia, etc. The invasion of Ukraine is an existential threat for the EU so it's not something on which it can back down if it has any sense.
FeepingCreature 4y ago
To me it's more that Russia has committed an extremely autocracy-typical error - bad information, overemphasis on territory due to reliance on resource economy, underestimating the enemy resolve - and since we've lived for many decades under the threat of the UdSSR, this is ... well, revenge would be the wrong word. I think everybody was content to let Russia be an inoffensively harmless behemoth. But if it's going to go back to its old games, and set itself up for such an opening embarrassment as it has, I think everybody is very willing to let it bleed basically arbitrarily - to some limit, since Ukraine is willing to foot the bill in bodies. So even if it hurts us economically, as long as it hurts Russia more, that's fine. This is how you stand up to a bully. Every child knows this instinctively. Putin overplayed, and now he gets to stew in it.
mr_mitm 4y ago
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." If I take a look at twitter, there are people saying exactly that [2]. Not using that phrasing, of course, but there people, even politicians (mostly from the left [0] and right [1] end of the spectrum), who demand the end of sanctions against Russia so we can have cheap gas again. [0] https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sanktionen-auf-warum-der-gaskrieg-deutschland-ruiniert.html https://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/3189.hebt-die-sa... [1] https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukraine-krieg-news-konflikt-russland-sanktionen-verhandlungen-ard-berlin-zr-91672632.html https://www.merkur.de/politik/afd-chef-tino-chrupalla-ukrain... [2] https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328 https://twitter.com/GBri1208/status/1571227979266531328
Heyso 4y ago
But it is fine killing 14k peoples in the Donbass over 8 years ? And it is fine killing russians for you I suppose ? Because "they are the bad guys". And maybe you are okay to kill peoples in middle east, because they need "democraty", they have "terrorists", and their leader is a "dictator". The very core of who we are ? Brainwashed. That's what we are.
- dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
  > But it is fine killing 14k peoples in the Donbass over 8 years? I know this statement was being repeated in Russian state TV. But the sole blame for these deaths is with Putin, because he started the killing in 2014, just like he did in 2022. Of course I don't want Russian soldiers to die, these are human beings with families etc. (although some of them seem like soulless beasts, I hope that's minority). This doesn't change the fact that it's Putin who sent them to death, not Ukrainians. None of them would have died if you hadn't attacked Ukraine.
DarkWiiPlayer 4y ago
> There is no way people would say, "We are cold so it is fine to kill Ukrainians." Plenty of people do. Plenty of people aren't even waiting until they're code, they just say "We might be cold later, so it's fine to kill Ukrainians." Hell, many even say it's Ukrainian's own fault that they're getting killed for resisting, and our fault for enabling them by sending them weapons. Putin is counting on the rest of the world to be predominantly a bunch of immoral, spineless cowards, and he's not even that far off with that assumption.
thrown_22 4y ago
Europeans slept quite soundly for 40 years when it was Muslims being killed for oil. Give it one good cold winter and Ukrainians will also become sub-humans.
- ptr 4y ago
  That's what Putin thinks at least.
- dvfjsdhgfv 4y ago
  > Europeans slept quite soundly for 40 years when it was Muslims being killed for oil. This is simply not true. When Bush decided to invade Iraq, there were biggest anti-war protests in European (and possibly world) history, gathering millions (not thousands) of people in practically all major European cities. It was wrong then, it is wrong now. We didn't "sleep quite soundly." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War
  - misja111 4y ago
    Exactly. And as a response to the well intended criticism, especially to the one from France, there was a USA boycott against French products. There was even a proposal to rename French Fries to Freedom Fries... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries But this must have slipped Muslim extremists' attention because France got their share of terrorist attacks afterwards anyway.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    Why did you think I was talking about Middle Eastern Muslims and not African Muslims? Just look at French involvement in Africa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_involving_France_in_modern_history#Fifth_Republic_(1958%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_involving_Fran...
  - LudwigNagasena 4y ago
    What did those protests achieve?

Proven 4y ago

Ambolia 4y ago

I think the only question here is not if the EU can secure "enough gas", which I doubt it can even if the article is so sure, but at what price? And can the German industry stay competitive with those energy prices? In case it can't, what will be the EU's future without Germany as the economic motor?

petrut_m 4y ago
Germany has never rebuilt it's economy and never switched the energy source powering it. The rest of EU will just sit idly by and watch as the trend continues downward without taking any action. /s
- someweirdperson 4y ago
  We're stuck in between "don't want" an "can't", hoping that the problem will disappear on its own. Instead of going all-in on local sources or renewables (even power2gas would be cheaper than current import prices), with only 272 wind turbines built so far this year and the goal still being a lowly 2% land covered in turbines, we're replacing one external unreliable source with another, which includes more complicated means of transportation (ship vs. pipe). Politics and media are discussion short-term topics like continuing to run the remaining 3 nuke plants, and running a bit more on coal for electricity. Instead, short term actions should just be done, and the time for discussion used to get to some long term consensus on some viable future concepts.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    We already have consensus on the viable long term concepts. Some people have just been trying really hard to ignore and delay the acceptance of that reality. Talking up the "chaos" and refusing to do basic things to help people when "disaster capitalists" would rather leverage the problem to funnel money to their backers is just another chapter in that fight. As is the weird focus on land coverage. No one sensible is talking about that. It has never been a problem to worry about, and it certainly isn't a metric to aim for.
4y ago

cm2187 4y ago

But long term, despite their history of moronic energy policy, I don't see the EU making itself dependent again on Russian gas (or any other critical commodity). Which is kind of a problem for a commodity driven economy like Russia.

Klaster_1 4y ago
One could argue reduced dependency on natural resource export could benefit russian economy in the long term because it undermines current regime, the root cause of the lack of growth during the last decade.
- bakuninsbart 4y ago
  I don't think a different regime would have fundamentally acted differently. Russia is too big to be in the EU (Germany and France would never allow it), and too small to be a 'nice' player next to super powers. Animosity towards Russia from the side of eastern Europe was always high, and the US kept using Russia as a useful boogie man, while China is a double-daggered partner. Russia never had a lot of options, and while it would have been better for Russians living standards to "roll over and accept defeat", this would have been political suicide for any regime.
  - bestouff 4y ago
    Maybe instead of "rolling over and accepting defeat" just not starting the war would have worked ?
    - actionfromafar 4y ago
      No, I don't think so. That would only put the spotlight on how mediocre to miserable life is in Russia. Not great politically. Look at Erdogan now, vying for international cred when the economy is tanking at home. He has an election coming up where he might not be rock solid as usual. I see similarities.
  - enjoy-your-stay 4y ago

ivolimmen 4y ago

And the prices are soaring. I am currently under contract and have 'normal' price per month but my contract ends this year. A friend of mine showed me his currently price for energy (gas and electricity bill in one) and his price wend from 300 to a 1100 per month. For people having a low income this is devastating. Some people on welfare cut the gas line to avoid getting into billing issues. I fear the future.

fulafel 4y ago

Alternatively, "Putin declined further financing of his war from Europe, having filled coffers, sending climate disaster ravaged Europe into reluctant fossil energy rampdown".

diimdeep 4y ago

Who is at War exactly ? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and_subsequent_waiver_and_negotiations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2#US_sanctions_and... [2] > Alternatives to Russian supplies—including LNG from the U.S. and other countries

yread 4y ago
Depends who you ask: Russia: NATO is at war with us. We're not at war with anyone cause it's a special military operation Everyone else: Russia and Ukraine are at war
- diimdeep 4y ago
  > Depends who you ask: Well, you will hear some opinion, based on some perspective. Almost always it is not whole truth, but a subset of facts. But there is so much more at play. What bothers me is how western news manipulative and no one really notice. News giving everyone a subset of facts, while omitting others, not painting the entire truth. They are not lying, but at the same time manipulate opinion of a large population.
  - Heyso 4y ago
    Like lying by omission, or relaying some false news, and apologizing a day or two later (discretly when the harm is already done). It is pretty obvious our media (at least in France) serve some agenda when you look at their finances. The rich guys that detain theses medias know how to make money. Meaning it is worth keeping these medias despite what it cost them each year. And why would you keep an unprofitable business ? Unless it serves them in another manner...
    - sofixa 4y ago
      What do you mean? Le Monde, the most popular newspaper, which is billionaire owned is profitable. Le Figaro, owned by Dassault (industrial group), second best, is also profitable. TF1, most popular private TV news network, owned by Bouygues (industrial group), is also profitable. M6, second best (among the private ones), is also profitable. Le Canard enchaîné and Mediapart, two of the most hard hitting investigative medias out there, are independent. All of this is easily found public information, which conflicts with the picture you're trying to paint. Of course there are rich people pushing their agenda with media (Bolloré pushed the far-right Zemmour really hard), but it's not the norm and it's false to say that French media is kept afloat by rich people's money to push an agenda when they're all profitable.

s9w 4y ago

Heyso 4y ago

Putin tells Europe: if you want gas then open Nord Stream 2 "President Vladimir Putin on Friday denied Russia had anything to do with Europe's energy crisis, saying that if the European Union wanted more gas it should lift sanctions preventing the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Speaking to reporters after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan, Putin blamed what he called "the green agenda" for the energy crisis, and insisted that Russia would fulfil its energy obligations. "The bottom line is, if you have an urge, if it's so hard for you, just lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year, just push the button and everything will get going," Putin said." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-putin-says-moscow-not-blame-eu-energy-crisis-2022-09-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-putin-says-m...

Hamuko 4y ago
It's kinda hard to take the proposal seriously when Gazprom has been cutting the amount of gas transmitted through Nord Steam 1 throughout the year. Last I heard was that Nord Steam 1 was delivering 25% of its intended capacity.
sam_lowry_ 4y ago
He is obviously lying. Russia willingly cut supplies on all other pipeline to well under 20% of usual flow [1], and even those 20% are there to keep the system running. Nord Stream 2 was never put in production. Anyone vested in the topic would understand that he says nonsense. However, the TV audience back home sees a picture of a confident leader. He is also hoping that fringe influencers around the world pick his lies in their agenda. [1] https://berthub.eu/gazmon/ https://berthub.eu/gazmon/

SURA 4y ago

Is anyone in Europe? Is it true that the media said that the electricity price there has risen dozens of times?

uomopertica 4y ago
Ita here, we got a 3x increase w.r.t. sep 2021
the_third_wave 4y ago
I'm in Sweden where electricity rates have gone up markedly, especially in in the lower half of the country. Average rates have gone up ~300%-400%, peak rates up to ~2500%. Those peak rates drive up the daily rates for those who have such a contract while those who have hourly rates can end up paying more than 10 kr ( ~$1) per kWh while the rate is up there - a period of a few hours around 08.00 in the morning, 17.00 in the afternoon. Where the rates end up depends on the demand from "the continent" - mostly Germany - as well as the availability of wind to fill in the gap left by the "green" party being responsible for shutting down half of the nuclear capacity. The oil-fired peak plant in Karlshamn has been running more hours this year than in the last 10 years combined, burning up to 140.000 litres of heavy fuel oil per hour. Interestingly that peak power plant has recently released its financial figures for last year [1]. It made a profit of 297 million kr (~$28 million) while consuming 30.000 tons of fuel oil, generating ~110 GWh. This roughly translates to ~$1 profit per kg of fuel oil burned, ~$2.70 profit per generated kWh. This shows the discrepancy between the actual cost of electricity and the market rates. [1] https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vinsten-for-karlshamnsverkets-agare-upp-over-500-procent https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/vinsten-for-karlshamnsverke...