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> it’s the capacity to actually create the hash capacity to execute the attack. Not even the NSA could do that, I don't see why. The current value of BTC mine

by HWR_14 4y ago

> it’s the capacity to actually create the hash capacity to execute the attack. Not even the NSA could do that, I don't see why. The current value of BTC mined in a year is around $6.5 billion. Hardware lasts, let's be generous, 2 years. No one will mine BTC at a loss, so the total cost of mining BTC for 2 years must be less than $13 billion. So for less than $13 billion, the NSA can create a new BTC mining network at 50%. That seems well within their budget. And if they sell their BTC, they can probably be cashflow positive before destroying the network.

sph 4y ago
> So for less than $13 billion, the NSA can create a new BTC mining network The NSA doesn't go to the NVIDIA store to buy $13 billion of GPUs. Measuring only the monetary value conveniently ignores the bottleneck of underlying resources to build the hardware to do the mining. Where does the NSA find $13 billion worth of top-shelf GPUs or ASICs? Having money is not enough if there is no one to sell you. That hardware takes natural resources, knowledge know-how found only in a few companies and a non-negligible amount of rare earth minerals to build. That's a serious bottleneck and not something you can stealthily enter in in that capacity, NSA or not.
- tromp 4y ago
  Large amounts of earlier generation ASICs whose efficiencies are no longer competitive are available for cheap. Many even end up on the scrap heap.
- DennisP 4y ago
  It would not be surprising if the NSA is able to design and source whatever ASICs they need. That's a capability that would be directly applicable to attacking encryption in general.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  > Where does the NSA find $13 billion worth of top-shelf GPUs or ASICs? Leaving aside the fact that they could have private secret production capability and I would believe it, the market is probably being flooded now as BTC is tanking. GPUs are apparently getting cheap again.

by HWR_14 4y ago

sph 4y ago

> So for less than $13 billion, the NSA can create a new BTC mining network The NSA doesn't go to the NVIDIA store to buy $13 billion of GPUs. Measuring only the monetary value conveniently ignores the bottleneck of underlying resources to build the hardware to do the mining. Where does the NSA find $13 billion worth of top-shelf GPUs or ASICs? Having money is not enough if there is no one to sell you. That hardware takes natural resources, knowledge know-how found only in a few companies and a non-negligible amount of rare earth minerals to build. That's a serious bottleneck and not something you can stealthily enter in in that capacity, NSA or not.

tromp 4y ago
Large amounts of earlier generation ASICs whose efficiencies are no longer competitive are available for cheap. Many even end up on the scrap heap.
DennisP 4y ago
It would not be surprising if the NSA is able to design and source whatever ASICs they need. That's a capability that would be directly applicable to attacking encryption in general.
HWR_14 4y ago
> Where does the NSA find $13 billion worth of top-shelf GPUs or ASICs? Leaving aside the fact that they could have private secret production capability and I would believe it, the market is probably being flooded now as BTC is tanking. GPUs are apparently getting cheap again.