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Autonomous vehicles are not a replacement for intra-regional transport systems like BART, they're complementary last-mile transport competing against things lik

Autonomous vehicles are not a replacement for intra-regional transport systems like BART, they're complementary last-mile transport competing against things like taxis. The relative costs make the difference obvious. A one way BART ticket between two distant stops like Dublin and 16th st/Mission is currently $3.45. Using a conservative cost-per-mile figure of $0.50 for the car and ignoring the bridge toll, the 37 road miles between those stations would cost over 5x more than the BART fare. An expensive autonomous vehicle that has to recoup R&D and generally be profitable would probably have to be an order of magnitude or more expensive than BART.

lawrenceyan 4y ago
Given the costs for development of roads has already been paid for, self-driving cars are actually incredibly cheap. It’s the cost of electricity plus amortized depreciation of the vehicle. R&D is pretty even I think when you consider the development costs that also went into engineering the BART system. The cost per mile is definitely within the range of ~.09 ($3.45 / 37 miles), with immense value from being able to travel anywhere that has roads and been geo-mapped. One of the primary limitations of public transport is that it’s limited to specific locations. Self-driving removes that constraint.
- AlotOfReading 4y ago
  $0.09 is more like the cost of energy than the total cost including depreciation. The federal $0.50 rate is much closer to the actual targets companies are aiming for.
  - lawrenceyan 4y ago
    The cost of labor is roughly zero, so energy is really the primary driver here.
    - AlotOfReading 4y ago
      The federal reimbursement/tax deduction rate doesn't incorporate the "labor costs" of driving either. Depreciation is usually the main component in both.
      - lawrenceyan 4y ago
        I don't fully understand what you're saying. Can you clarify what you mean by federal reimbursement/tax deduction rate incorporating labor costs?
midoridensha 4y ago
The other factor is that roads simply cannot handle the volume of people that trains can. One subway train can easily result in hundreds of cars not being on the road.
- duskwuff 4y ago
  Same goes for parking, especially in cities like San Francisco. (And if someone wants to counterargue that self-driving cars can drive away to park somewhere else -- that just makes the traffic even worse, since now there's twice as many cars entering and leaving the city around rush hour.)
- Gibbon1 4y ago
  I saw a transportation guy that said what transit systems like BART are good at is getting people on and off quickly. Better than buses and far better than taxi's.
thereisnospork 4y ago
>Using a conservative cost-per-mile figure of $0.50 for the car and ignoring the bridge toll, the 37 road miles between those stations would cost over 5x more than the BART fare Do note that the BART fare is heavily subsidized, actual costs[0] are closer to .40cents per passenger mile. So Bart is only slightly cheaper, by lets say 25cents per mile[1], than a car which is much faster, cleaner, serves a larger geographic area, and is far more convenient. [0]https://www.bart.gov/kpi/stability https://www.bart.gov/kpi/stability .39$ in 2019, undoubtedly more now with inflation. [1]2022 IRS deduction of 62.5cents
- jen20 4y ago
  > which is much faster You must be driving on different Bay Area roads than me.
  - thereisnospork 4y ago
    You must be taking different Bay Area transit than me (not that Bay area roads aren't hellish). Other than peak commute times cars are far faster to pretty everywhere BART serves outside of SF proper, and obviously much faster to anyplace BART doesn't. The aforementioned Dublin > mission BART route is only about parity with driving for a 9:00am arrival in SF, and much slower after[0]. To say nothing of the obvious choke point that is the bay bridge, which would be well served by either an expansion or a hybrid approach. Robotaxi to west Oakland, hope on a bart, pick up a new robotaxi in SF to get to e.g. the sunset, or other not-bart served location. [0]https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Amador+Lakes+Apartment+Homes,+8105+N+Lake+Dr,+Dublin,+CA+94568/Mission+St+%26+10th+St,+San+Francisco,+CA+94103/@37.7946518,-122.3021698,11z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m18!4m17!1m5!1m1!1s0x808fec3613381c8f:0xe87af5ff73cb08f1!2m2!1d-121.9220006!2d37.7250386!1m5!1m1!1s0x8085809dabfed783:0x4de35e0d56c98612!2m2!1d-122.4159441!2d37.7752882!2m3!6e1!7e2!8j1663664400!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Amador+Lakes+Apartment+Homes...

lawrenceyan 4y ago

Given the costs for development of roads has already been paid for, self-driving cars are actually incredibly cheap. It’s the cost of electricity plus amortized depreciation of the vehicle. R&D is pretty even I think when you consider the development costs that also went into engineering the BART system. The cost per mile is definitely within the range of ~.09 ($3.45 / 37 miles), with immense value from being able to travel anywhere that has roads and been geo-mapped. One of the primary limitations of public transport is that it’s limited to specific locations. Self-driving removes that constraint.

AlotOfReading 4y ago
$0.09 is more like the cost of energy than the total cost including depreciation. The federal $0.50 rate is much closer to the actual targets companies are aiming for.
- lawrenceyan 4y ago
  The cost of labor is roughly zero, so energy is really the primary driver here.
  - AlotOfReading 4y ago
    The federal reimbursement/tax deduction rate doesn't incorporate the "labor costs" of driving either. Depreciation is usually the main component in both.
    - lawrenceyan 4y ago
      I don't fully understand what you're saying. Can you clarify what you mean by federal reimbursement/tax deduction rate incorporating labor costs?

midoridensha 4y ago

The other factor is that roads simply cannot handle the volume of people that trains can. One subway train can easily result in hundreds of cars not being on the road.

duskwuff 4y ago
Same goes for parking, especially in cities like San Francisco. (And if someone wants to counterargue that self-driving cars can drive away to park somewhere else -- that just makes the traffic even worse, since now there's twice as many cars entering and leaving the city around rush hour.)
Gibbon1 4y ago
I saw a transportation guy that said what transit systems like BART are good at is getting people on and off quickly. Better than buses and far better than taxi's.

thereisnospork 4y ago

>Using a conservative cost-per-mile figure of $0.50 for the car and ignoring the bridge toll, the 37 road miles between those stations would cost over 5x more than the BART fare Do note that the BART fare is heavily subsidized, actual costs[0] are closer to .40cents per passenger mile. So Bart is only slightly cheaper, by lets say 25cents per mile[1], than a car which is much faster, cleaner, serves a larger geographic area, and is far more convenient. [0]https://www.bart.gov/kpi/stability https://www.bart.gov/kpi/stability .39$ in 2019, undoubtedly more now with inflation. [1]2022 IRS deduction of 62.5cents

jen20 4y ago
> which is much faster You must be driving on different Bay Area roads than me.
- thereisnospork 4y ago
  You must be taking different Bay Area transit than me (not that Bay area roads aren't hellish). Other than peak commute times cars are far faster to pretty everywhere BART serves outside of SF proper, and obviously much faster to anyplace BART doesn't. The aforementioned Dublin > mission BART route is only about parity with driving for a 9:00am arrival in SF, and much slower after[0]. To say nothing of the obvious choke point that is the bay bridge, which would be well served by either an expansion or a hybrid approach. Robotaxi to west Oakland, hope on a bart, pick up a new robotaxi in SF to get to e.g. the sunset, or other not-bart served location. [0]https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Amador+Lakes+Apartment+Homes,+8105+N+Lake+Dr,+Dublin,+CA+94568/Mission+St+%26+10th+St,+San+Francisco,+CA+94103/@37.7946518,-122.3021698,11z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m18!4m17!1m5!1m1!1s0x808fec3613381c8f:0xe87af5ff73cb08f1!2m2!1d-121.9220006!2d37.7250386!1m5!1m1!1s0x8085809dabfed783:0x4de35e0d56c98612!2m2!1d-122.4159441!2d37.7752882!2m3!6e1!7e2!8j1663664400!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Amador+Lakes+Apartment+Homes...